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اسرائیل

Policy Analysis on اسرائیل

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Articles & Testimony
Israel Turns Up the Heat on Hezbollah
As the war in Gaza seemingly winds down, the old rules no longer apply in the north.
۲۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Infographic on Hamas diplomatic meetings during the Gaza war.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hamas Diplomacy: From Haniyeh to Sinwar
The group has sought to build legitimacy and prepare for a postwar role in Gaza by engaging with various countries since October, but the death of Ismail Haniyeh will complicate those efforts.
۲۸ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Another One-Day War? What the Latest Hezbollah-Israel Clash Reveals About Deterrence and Escalation
Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.
۲۷ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ben Fishman
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The Pros and Cons of Salvaging (or Ditching) UNIFIL
Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.
۲۰ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Assaf Orion
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter at a trade meeting in Shanghai
Articles & Testimony
What to Make of China’s Moves in the Middle East
Beijing doesn’t care that its “Palestinian unity” agreement is a nonstarter or that a Hamas victory would undermine Chinese interests in stabilizing the Middle East—it just wants the United States to lose.
۱۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Singh
Asad attack
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Signal De-Escalation with the U.S., Return to Cosmetic Israel Strikes
The self-styled Iraqi "resistance" has hinted at a desire to end the tit-for-tat sequence of strikes with the United States and return to cost-free counter-Israel operations.
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
President Joe Biden gestures while speaking - source: White House
Articles & Testimony
There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East
Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.
۱۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
The US Navy carrier Abraham Lincoln sails alongside an escort destroyer - source: U.S. Navy
تحلیل کوتاه
تنها یک تهدید تهاجمی معتبر می‌تواند ایران را از بالا رفتن از نردبان تنش باز دارد
در میان موجی از تحرکات دیپلماتیک و استقرار توانایی‌های نظامی ایالات متحده در منطقه، مشخص نیست که ایران شرمسار از کشته شدن اسماعیل هنیه در پایتخت خود به اسراییل حمله خواهد کرد یا خیر، اما یک نکته روشن است: اگر به ایران اجازه داده شود که حمله مستقیم به اسراییل را بدون پیامدهای معنی‌دار تکرار کند، سابقه خطرناکی ایجاد خواهد شد.
۱۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • فرزین ندیمی
Photo of a woman walking in front of a mural that shows missiles being launched from Iran.
Video
Brief Analysis
On the Brink? The Potential for a Broader Conflict in the Middle East
An Israeli general and two former U.S. officials discuss the prospects of an imminent Iranian attack and what can be done to deter it.
۱۴ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Amir Eshel
  • David M. Satterfield
  • Dana Stroul
An unexploded missile fired by an Israeli aircraft lies among the rubble, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in the northern Gaza Strip - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Explosive Remnants: Gaza’s Literal Ticking Bomb
Reconstruction can’t happen until thousands of dud bombs and other explosives are cleared from the urban rubble—a task that faces formidable shortfalls in funding, manpower, and other resources.
۱۲ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Andrew G. Clemmensen
Turkish
Brief Analysis
Israel-Turkey Relations Nearing a Rupture
Even with U.S. intercession, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran could harden Ankara’s stance against Israel and spur a fatal cycle of diplomatic and economic retaliation.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters
تحلیل کوتاه
آیا دو حمله‌ی اخیر مذاکرات غزه و قدرت بازدارندگی در برابر ایران-حزب‌الله را از بین می‌برد؟
چهار کارشناس انستیتو واشینگتن در مطلب زیر به بررسی محاسبات اسراییل در پشت انجام چنین حملات پر سر و صدایی در این برهه زمانی، تأثیرات احتمالی آنها بر روی مذاکرات آزادسازی گروگان‌های غزه، نیاز احتمالی ایران به پاسخ نظامی برای حفظ آبرو، و موارد دیگر پرداخته‌اند.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • دنیس راس
  • دیوید ماکوفسکی
  • نئومی نیومن
  • فرزین ندیمی
President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia in July 2022
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Middle East Moonshot
Reaching a Gaza ceasefire and Israeli-Saudi normalization deal will require intense, well-coordinated diplomatic efforts in a condensed timeline, but the administration can do it with help from the “Arab Quint.”
۷ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border
The 30,000-strong militia has ground forces massed along the frontier, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning home and increasing the risk of a war that both sides would rather postpone for now.
۶ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Rocket truck used to attack US forces at Al-Asad, Iraq, Aug 5, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What to Make of Recent Attacks on Coalition Bases in Iraq and Syria?
The strikes are not yet numerous enough to form a definitive pattern, but they probably reflect deep militia divisions over whether to renew anti-coalition attacks in earnest amid the Gaza war.
۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role
Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.
۱ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Fuad Shukr - source: Twitter/X
Brief Analysis
The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer
For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.
۳۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
News headlines on Gaza war, emphasis on use of anonymous sources by Washington Post
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Anonymous Sources in Gaza War Reporting:
The Washington Post vs. Its Peers
In such a challenging environment, news organizations must work especially hard to convince readers that sources are honest, legitimate, and trustworthy.
۲۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Martin Indyk, Tireless U.S. Envoy Who Saw the ‘Promised Land’ Ending the Israel-Palestinian Conflict
After spending decades working for a breakthrough, he was never naive about the rejectionists on both sides, but he still had faith in a two-state solution.
۲۸ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Houthi missile hits Chios Lion tanker, Red Sea, July 2024.
Maps & Graphics
Houthi Attacks on Russia-Linked Tankers
Available data suggests the Yemeni group has been going after vessels carrying Russian cargo, particularly if an operator's ships have visited Israeli ports.
۲۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight

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