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Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Israel Has a Lot to Lose by Annexing West Bank Territory
Even if Netanyahu steps away from the precipice this month, the problem will not dissipate until the White House stops incentivizing annexation with offers of American recognition.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation
New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.
Jun 11, 2020
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Dana Stroul
Katherine Bauer
In-Depth Reports
Wrestling with Annexation:
The Elusive Search for a Policy Rationale
A potential Israeli push to annex parts of the West Bank threatens to upend a reasonably tolerable and surprisingly stable status quo to achieve dubious benefits at significant cost.
Jun 11, 2020
◆
Robert Satloff
Video
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Bumpy Road to an IMF Deal:
Implications for U.S. Policy
A former senior Lebanese official joins two experts to discuss the country's growing financial crisis and the deep institutional problems it must address in order to meet IMF reform requirements.
Jun 10, 2020
◆
Maroun Hitti
Jessica Obeid
Sami Nader Sami Nader
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Asymmetric Naval Response to 'Maximum Pressure'
Three veteran observers of Iranian naval forces and doctrines assess the country's ability to punch above its weight in the Persian Gulf.
Jun 10, 2020
◆
Michael Connell
Farzin Nadimi
John Miller
Brief Analysis
Shifting Tides in Libya Require More Active U.S. Involvement
Directly engaging all parties is essential if Washington hopes to advance a national dialogue and prevent a Turkish-Russian accommodation that establishes their presence in Libya indefinitely.
Jun 10, 2020
◆
Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Hashd Reforms in Iraq Conceal More Than They Reveal
The reform measures called for by PMF leaders are so opaque that they could enable militia consolidation masquerading as security sector improvements.
Jun 9, 2020
◆
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Brief Analysis
Bumped Crops: Iran’s Grain Imports and Geopolitical Shocks
Despite its declarations of self-sufficiency, the country still imports large amounts of agricultural staples from abroad, leaving its food basket vulnerable to supply shocks, sanctions-related payment difficulties, environmental volatility, and other risks.
Jun 8, 2020
◆
Kevjn Lim
Articles & Testimony
Annexing West Bank Territory Was Once a Taboo for Israel. No Longer.
The idea that Israelis might embrace annexation seemed extremely improbable just a few years ago, so how did we get here?
Jun 8, 2020
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
You May Pay More at the Pump, as OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production
The cartel’s latest bid to increase profits will likely be counterbalanced by depressed summer demand and increased output by other producers.
Jun 8, 2020
◆
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu Sees a Historic Moment in Annexation. But He Might Not Be Seeing the Risks.
The prime minister has not acknowledged the important differences between this move and other recent controversies, instead making the unnecessarily dangerous bet that all the warnings will once again prove unfounded.
Jun 5, 2020
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Dennis Ross
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Taking Back the Neighborhood:
The IRGC Provincial Guard's Mission to Re-Islamize Iran
In 2008, the IRGC established a new branch that remains little known or studied today: the Provincial Guard. Operating in all of Iran's thirty-one provinces plus Tehran city, the IRGC-PG carries out the regime's revolutionary aims at the local level, inculcating conservative religious values, shaping educational curricula, and even sponsoring
Jun 4, 2020
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Saeid Golkar
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s COVID-19 Response
President Erdogan’s ever-tightening circle of policy influencers has lagged behind on proposing innovative solutions to the pandemic, giving other politicians an opening to become the main drivers of national change.
Jun 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Deniz Yuksel
Brief Analysis
Recent Aid Agreements Provide Opportunity to Support Women in Jordan
New USAID funds and a pending strategy for enhanced development cooperation could facilitate reforms that foster a better economic environment for women, and for the kingdom as a whole.
Jun 4, 2020
◆
Allison Jacobs Anderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Erdogan’s Influence in Europe: A Swedish Case Study
In August 2019, Mikail Yüksel—a Swedish politician of Turkish origin—founded a new party in Sweden called ‘ Nyans’ (Nuance). Yüksel, formerly a member of Sweden’s small liberal, slightly left-wing, Center-party, started the new party after being forced to resign on the cusp of Sweden’s elections to the European Parliament, where
Jun 4, 2020
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Magnus Norell
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sooner Rather Than Later: The Demand for Decentralization in Iraqi Kurdistan
As Iraqi Kurdistan faces several severe crises simultaneously, it must evaluate the benefits and limitations of a popular call to reform and decentralize its current model of government. The Kurdistan regional government’s (KRG) current outdated model of governance will likely prove to be ineffective in handling these major challenges, revealing
Jun 2, 2020
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Sardar Aziz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Assad’s Forces Move Toward Daraa
At the beginning of May, the Assad regime dispatched major military reinforcements to the city of Daraa in southern Syria. Regular reports appeared that there would soon be a military operation in the province carried out with Iranian backing. In response, a new uprising broke out in Daraa, with dozens
Jun 2, 2020
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Bassam Barabandi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Turkey’s Intervention in Libya Disrupts the UAE but Opens the Door for Russia
In a strong and extraordinary statement, the Pentagon accused Moscow on Tuesday of dispatching fighter jets to Libya to bolster Kremlin-linked mercenaries in support of the eastern based commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar. The move marks a dramatic escalation in Russia's role in the Libyan conflict
Jun 1, 2020
◆
Mohamed Eljarh
Articles & Testimony
Iran Continues Its Nuclear Work, But Is It Weapons Grade?
An upcoming IAEA report will give Washington and Europe more clarity on where the nuclear program stands and whether united Western efforts to contain it are still possible.
Jun 1, 2020
◆
Simon Henderson
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