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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Photo of an Israeli tank crossing the Golan ceasefire line with Syria, December 2024.
Articles & Testimony
The Coming Clash Over Syria: Israel and Turkey Are on a Collision Course
After a stunning blow to their mutual Iranian enemy, Israel and Turkey should use close defense and intelligence dialogue to navigate Syria’s extraordinary period of flux and craft a new regional order.
May 6, 2025
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  • David Makovsky
  • Simone Saidmehr
Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with Turkey's president Erdogan in Ankara in 2025 - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Between Israel and Turkey, Implications for the New Syria (Part 2)
A former Israeli military official and a Turkey expert discuss what each government wants from Syria, how they can address their most glaring friction points, and what the Trump administration can do to mediate the process.
Apr 10, 2025
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Assaf Orion
Photo of an Israeli tank crossing the Golan ceasefire line with Syria, December 2024.
Video
Brief Analysis
Between Israel and Turkey, Implications for the New Syria (Part 1)
A regional media bureau chief explains how continued Israeli military incursions in Syria are complicating efforts to stabilize the country, and why multilateral foreign assistance is a must.
Apr 10, 2025
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  • Maya Gebeily
Fighters of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), walk together near Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Facilitating the New SDF Agreement Is Key to Stabilizing Syria
The Kurdish-led group has reached important understandings with the new leadership in Damascus, but finalizing and implementing them while resolving points of contention will require further help from the United States and its partners.
Apr 2, 2025
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  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Screenshot from MarineTraffic shows tracks of the Marina between Cyprus and Syria on March 28, 2025.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah-Linked LPG Tanker Sails to East Mediterranean
Past ties between the Marina and the Lebanese terrorist group, along with the ship’s deceptive practices at sea, merit U.S. scrutiny.
Mar 28, 2025
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  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Video
Articles & Testimony
Bridging the Gap: Turkey Between East and West
An expert testifies on Turkey’s new position in Syria and shifting power relations with Russia, explaining how Washington can use both to help resolve the Ukraine war and shift U.S. strategic investments toward the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 5, 2025
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Demonstrators fly a mixture of Turkish flages featuring the image of the Republic of Turkey's founder, Kemal Mustafa Ataturk, and banners depicting Kurdish militia leader Abdullah Ocalan - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy
If Ankara seals the deal and preempts potential spoilers, the results could prove historic for Turkish politics, Erdogan’s legacy, joint counterterrorism efforts, and wider U.S. regional interests.
Feb 21, 2025
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Karayilan, acting military commander of the PKK, speaks during an interview with Reuters at the Qandil mountains in Sulaimaniya in 2013, in front of a portrait of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests
Although past peace efforts have fallen apart due to diplomatic stumbles and Kurdish opposition, the situation on the ground in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey has changed dramatically enough to warrant optimism about Ankara’s current talks.
Feb 21, 2025
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with Turkey's president Erdogan in Ankara in 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
A New Age for Turkish Relations with Syria
Ankara and Washington should offer incentives to the new leadership in Damascus to encourage an inclusive governance process and make Syria work.
Feb 20, 2025
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Soner Cagaptay
German and French foreign ministers meet with Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Paris Conference on Syria: Coordination and a Roadmap Are Needed
To set up a future where U.S. forces and constant U.S. attention are no longer needed in Syria, Washington must be involved now, and smart transatlantic engagement could facilitate this goal.
Feb 11, 2025
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  • Devorah Margolin
  • Souhire Medini
Trump and Erdogan images with U.S. and Turkish flag
In-Depth Reports
Building on Momentum in U.S.-Turkey Relations
The two leaders can use their personal rapport to solve bilateral and regional problems, but they will also face tough challenges in matters such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and dealings with China.
Feb 5, 2025
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  • Soner Cagaptay
◆ Transition Notes 2025
Brief Analysis
From October 7 to the Gaza Ceasefire: A Changed Middle East Awaits the Trump Administration
Important strategic changes abound in the region, but policymakers should take care not to underestimate the persistence of old challenges or the potential emergence of new threats.
Jan 31, 2025
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  • Neomi Neumann
Articles & Testimony
In Syria, America Should Be Ruthlessly Focused on the Islamic State
With the U.S. military presence on a potentially short timetable, officials should prioritize policies that ensure the continued security of Islamic State detention facilities, such as brokering local ceasefire agreements and alleviating Turkish concerns.
Jan 17, 2025
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  • Joseph Votel
  • Elizabeth Dent
The Syria Breakdown Series Title Card
Video
Articles & Testimony
The Syria Breakdown, Episode Three: Turkey Turns an Enemy into an Ally
In this episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Turkey analyst Soner Cagaptay traces the revolutionary transformation of Ankara's relationship with Damascus from heated enemies to the closest of allies.
Jan 14, 2025
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  • Soner Cagaptay
◆ The Syria Breakdown
Map showing areas of control in post-Assad Syria.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Supporting the SDF in Post-Assad Syria
To preserve its only reliable and capable partner in the fight against the Islamic State, the United States must help the SDF deter HTS and fend off Turkey-backed militias.
Dec 13, 2024
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  • Ido Levy
President Donald Trump speaks about Syria
Articles & Testimony
Trump Can’t Sit This One Out
Despite his latest tweets about staying out of the Syria crisis, Trump has a history of working with Turkey on these issues and has several carrots to offer HTS as well.
Dec 11, 2024
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
Dec 11, 2024
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  • Zohar Palti
People watch the September 10, 2024 debate between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
U.S. Election 2024: Views from the Middle East
A panel of distinguished journalists from across the Middle East discuss regional perspectives on the second Trump administration’s potential approach to critical issues of war and peace.
Nov 12, 2024
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  • David Horovitz
  • Barcin Yinanc
  • Nadim Koteich
  • Robert Satloff
Iraqi flag
Brief Analysis
Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2)
Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region.
Oct 8, 2024
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Security forces the Iraqi-Syrian border, after it has been reopened for trade and travel, in Al Qaim, Iraq in 2019 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 1)
Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime.
Oct 8, 2024
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay

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Supported by the

Turkish Research Program

Since its inception in 1995, The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program has established itself as the most influential center in Washington for research and information on Turkey -- a predominantly Muslim, secular, and democratic U.S. ally.

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Featured experts

Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Senior Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.
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