Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

In April 2020, the IRGC launched its first domestically made satellite, the Nour-1, into orbit. The launch showed the risks of lifting arms restrictions on Iran, a move supported by potential weapons trade partners Russia and China but vehemently opposed by the United States. Ending the embargo could facilitate Tehran’s

Aug 27, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Cautious Response to Washington’s Snapback Threat

Instead of playing hardball, the entire regime is seemingly embracing the more prudent approach of disregarding the U.S. threat and exploiting the resultant diplomatic clash for political gains.

Aug 21, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Conflict with Small Powers Derails U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case for Strategic Discipline

Although containing or deterring minor powers can help shape the behavior of great powers, conflicts with these smaller foes have proliferated in the twenty-first century, tying down resources and attention needed elsewhere.

Aug 12, 2020

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

Iran Applies Maximum Power to Annual IRGC Naval Exercise

Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.

Aug 10, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Video

Brief Analysis

Mapping Hezbollah's Worldwide Activities

Three current and former U.S. officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Hezbollah and its enablers.

Aug 5, 2020

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Matthew Levitt
Kash Patel
Juan Zarate

Brief Analysis

How Might Iran Respond to Foreign Sabotage?

Given the dilemmas involved in retaliating for recent acts of sabotage and the death of Qasem Soleimani, Iran will likely defer any substantial military action against U.S. targets until shortly before or after the November election.

Aug 4, 2020

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

Iran-South Korea Humanitarian Trade Requires U.S. Assurances

Tehran is pressing Seoul regarding the billions in Iranian oil revenues held by South Korean banks, creating an opportunity to expand the U.S. humanitarian trade mechanism.

Jul 28, 2020

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Katherine Bauer
Kevin Mathieson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations

Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.

Jul 24, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Podcast: Deterring Iran in the 'Gray Zone'

For forty years, Iran has operated in the gray zone between war and peace. Military analyst Michael Eisenstadt explains an approach that could deter Iran while reducing risk of escalation.

Jul 23, 2020

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

If the Arms Ban Ends: Implications for Iran’s Military Capabilities

Discussions about lifting the ban tend to focus on major weapons systems Tehran might acquire abroad, yet the most important long-term impact may be on its ability to upgrade existing capabilities and strengthen domestic arms production.

Jul 23, 2020

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Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

When China Met Iran

A growing partnership between America’s main Middle East adversary and Asia’s rising superpower bears careful watching in Washington.

Jul 21, 2020

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Michael Singh

Articles & Testimony

Observations on the Islamic State in Iran

The institutionalization of revolutionary Islamism in Iranian governance and law means there is almost no chance the current regime will pursue reform of its own volition.

Jul 17, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Under Stress

As Riyadh aims to revamp the kingdom’s place in the international community, its near-term approach to Iran and Israel will have much to say about the Gulf neighborhood’s future trajectory.

Jul 15, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Will Iran ‘Go Nuclear’ Over Its Latest Nuke Site Setback?

Even if the regime’s prospects of obtaining enough high-enriched uranium for a weapon have been greatly delayed, the potential repercussions do not end there.

Jul 6, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Sunset of the Iran Arms Embargo:

The Narrow Path to a Policy Compromise

Delinking the embargo from the nuclear deal could offer the best hope of reducing tensions within the P5+1 while also limiting Iran’s access to sophisticated weaponry.

Jun 29, 2020

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

Iran Is Repeating Its Past Errors with the IAEA

To prevent the agency from issuing a noncompliance resolution, Tehran has been threatening to impede inspections, but this approach could easily backfire on the regime.

Jun 18, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Iran Signals a Toughened Stance by Adding to Its Naval Arsenal

The regime may eventually use larger vessels to project power beyond the Gulf, but even its more modest recent additions portend further confrontations and weapons proliferation in local waters.

Jun 18, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation

New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.

Jun 11, 2020

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Dana Stroul
Katherine Bauer

Video

Brief Analysis

Iran's Asymmetric Naval Response to 'Maximum Pressure'

Three veteran observers of Iranian naval forces and doctrines assess the country's ability to punch above its weight in the Persian Gulf.

Jun 10, 2020

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Michael Connell
Farzin Nadimi
John Miller

Brief Analysis

Bumped Crops: Iran’s Grain Imports and Geopolitical Shocks

Despite its declarations of self-sufficiency, the country still imports large amounts of agricultural staples from abroad, leaving its food basket vulnerable to supply shocks, sanctions-related payment difficulties, environmental volatility, and other risks.

Jun 8, 2020

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Kevjn Lim

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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