Great Power Competition

Erdogan's stance has been pro-Ukrainian but not anti-Russian, enabling him to strike a delicate balance between NATO expectations, Moscow’s economic lifeline, and domestic political pressures.

Despite increased pressure on both sides, Netanyahu is likely to maintain Israel's nonaligned approach to the conflict in Ukraine in an effort to preserve his immediate regional interests.

Amid global uncertainty, Gulf states are seeking to strike a delicate balance between old and new partners.

As with Russia, Persian Gulf states may be reluctant to cross Beijing if conflict erupts in Asia, but Washington should remind them that even narrow financial action can help counter any Chinese moves on Taiwan.

The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.

The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.

As the cartel’s top players discuss their future production goals, Western leaders are becoming increasingly concerned that oil policy will be warped by Moscow’s desire to grind out a victory in Ukraine and punish Kyiv’s backers.

The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.

Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.