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Great Power Competition

Policy Analysis on Great Power Competition

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Fikra Forum
In 2022 Polls, Views on U.S. Relations On Par with Other World Powers in the Middle East
Regional polls from March and August reveal shifting power dynamics, as economic conditions and relations with Israel continue to weigh on citizens’ minds.
Nov 9, 2022
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  • Frances McDonough
A cargo ship carrying Ukrainian grain passes through the Bosphorus - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
MENA Countries Stand to Lose the Most If the Ukraine Grain Initiative Falters
Russia will continue using the Black Sea corridors as leverage, so Western countries and their partners should prepare alternative routes and other assistance as counter-leverage.
Nov 8, 2022
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Sabina Henneberg
NATO solderis with alliance and national flags
Articles & Testimony
US-Europe Security Cooperation at the Crossroads
Recent Chinese and Russian actions have shaken the national security establishment out of its complacency, underscoring how American cooperation with Europe, the Middle East, and other actors will not be so straightforward in this new era of great-power competition.
November 2022
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?
Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.
Oct 25, 2022
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  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Will Haftar’s Heir Be an Ally of the Russians or the Americans?
As Libya's political dynamics continue to change, Washington's next moves are more important than ever.
Oct 21, 2022
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  • Khalil El Hasse
Flag of the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Shifting Lines and IDPs: Azaz, Afrin, and the HTS Incursion
HTS is on the move through northern Syria, leaving locals in Afrin and Azaz even more vulnerable.
Oct 19, 2022
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  • Rena Netjes
Brief Analysis
The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the Middle East Vote?
Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of territorial integrity.
Oct 18, 2022
Wing Loong fighter
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
China's Security Presence in the Middle East:
Redlines and Guidelines for the United States
A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information.
Oct 18, 2022
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  • Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
Bismarck on the Bosporus
Turkey’s president faces a reinvigorated opposition at home, but he is trying to show he can still win elections while also playing Russia, the United States, and Europe against one another.
Oct 13, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
OPEC flag
Articles & Testimony
High Prices, War in Ukraine, a Cold Winter Ahead—and Now OPEC+ Piles On
The oil cartel’s reported plan to cut production could roil global markets, U.S.-Gulf relations, and American voter sentiment.
Oct 4, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy
With elections in the balance, Erdoğan is playing a risky game of international normalizations in the hope that the Turkish electorate will approve of economic ties and immigrant solutions.
Sep 30, 2022
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  • Batu Coşkun
  • Gökhan Çınkara
A souvenir plate depicting Russian President Putin and Crimea - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Internal Forces Pushing Putin’s Escalation in the War with Ukraine
The partial mobilization suggests that he is more afraid of regime hardliners than the Russian public.
Sep 24, 2022
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
mohammed bin salman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Pragmatic Re-Balancing: the Saudi Dual Outreach to Israel and Iran
While the Middle East remains littered with flashpoints, Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Israel and Iran in an attempt to defuse simmering tensions and build consensus, with the Kingdom shifting from a confrontational to fence-mending approach.
Sep 20, 2022
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  • Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco
Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran One Step Closer to SCO Membership
Assessing the real benefits—and limits—of joining the so-called “anti-NATO” can help policymakers better understand what Tehran, China, Russia, and other participants are getting out of their summits.
Sep 14, 2022
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  • Nicole Grajewski
Assad and Khamenei
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Despite Airstrikes, Iran Continues to Permeate Western Syria
Efforts to counter Iran in Syria are solely focused on Iran’s military presence in the country, and have ignored the soft-power, cultural spheres of influence being developed by Iran as a long-term strategy.
Sep 14, 2022
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  • Omar Abu Layla
Fair-Observer-Arab-NATO-Middle-East-politics-Iran-news-GCC-news
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Middle East NATO: From Fiction to Fact
In light of increased regional tensions, the idea of a Middle East NATO is becoming more and more realistic, this time with the possibility of Israeli-Arab cooperation.
Sep 14, 2022
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  • Mohamed Chtatou
Chinese and Israeli flags on a table at a diplomatic conference - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
No, Israel Isn’t Falling Into China’s Orbit
Much has been made about their growing ties, but an in-depth look at their actual activity in various sectors shows that alarmism is unwarranted.
Sep 6, 2022
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
How Turkey Views Russian Naval Access to the Black Sea
Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.
Sep 2, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Erdogan and Putin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Consequences of Turkey’s Shifting Position on the Syrian Crisis
Although establishing ties between Turkey and the Syrian regime may seem like a smart move by Erdogan, the decision represents a betrayal of the Syrian people and its success is not guaranteed for the Turkish government.
Sep 2, 2022
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  • Salahuddin Hawa
Photo of Turkish and Taliban officials meeting in Ankara, October 2021.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Looking for Legitimacy: Taliban Diplomacy Since the Fall of Kabul
The group’s international profile has risen substantially with help from China, Turkey, and other states, but Western leaders should curtail their engagement so long as Kabul keeps gaslighting them about its al-Qaeda ties.
Aug 15, 2022
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin

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Supported by the

Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East

The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East focuses on the region as a setting for heightened competition between the United States and other world powers, such as China and Russia.

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Featured experts

Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Anna Borshchevskaya
Anna Borshchevskaya
Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Russia's policy toward the Middle East.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
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