Energy & Economics

Policy Analysis on Energy & Economics

Iraq Goes from Zurfi to Kadhimi: U.S. Policy Implications

If Kadhimi’s nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washington’s troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.

Apr 9, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Houthis Release Their Wish List for Ending the Yemen War

Reflecting just how emboldened the Houthis have become, their latest ceasefire document advocates maximalist positions on core issues while demanding that other actors foot the bill for reconstruction, reparations, economic recovery, and virus containment.

Apr 9, 2020

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Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

Trump Considers a Cameo Role in Saudi-Russia Oil Price Drama

The president’s latest statements on OPEC and the possibility of U.S. tariffs are ambiguous, but they suggest his growing exasperation with Moscow and Riyadh.

Apr 6, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

The Saudi-Russia Oil Fight Is the Last Thing the Economy Needs in a Pandemic

Both governments have gone “crazy” in the fast-moving price war, but the White House is apparently divided on who to blame and how much to get involved.

Apr 1, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Sanctions Relief Isn’t Necessary to Assist Iran’s Coronavirus Response

Washington can facilitate aid without fundamentally altering the sanctions infrastructure, in part by clarifying the rules on allowable humanitarian trade, expanded NGO activities, and Tehran’s existing financial options.

Mar 31, 2020

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Katherine Bauer
Dana Stroul

Articles & Testimony

U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition

Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.

Mar 30, 2020

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

How to Serve U.S. Interests by Saving Kurdistan’s Economy

Unless Washington intervenes with cost-effective, forceful measures, Iraqi Kurdistan could be the first Middle Eastern economy to implode under the pressure of coronavirus and low oil prices.

Mar 30, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows

Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever.

Mar 27, 2020

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Kevjn Lim

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Nowruz Speech in a Time of Coronavirus

His remarks focused on inspiring the nation to stay strong in the face of the crisis while refusing to trust U.S. aid, though without mentioning his normal laundry list of foreign policy issues.

Mar 23, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.

Mar 20, 2020

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

In the Saudi-Russian Oil Price War, the U.S. Blinks First

This is President Trump’s dilemma: how to safeguard America’s shale-based energy independence without making apparent concessions to Moscow.

Mar 20, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed

As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.

Mar 17, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests

The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.

Mar 16, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government

Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.

Mar 13, 2020

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Bilal Wahab

Articles & Testimony

Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims

The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.

Mar 10, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics

Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.

Mar 9, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’

Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.

Mar 5, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis

Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.

Mar 2, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Sacked Saudi Energy Minister Returns to Cabinet

Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.

Feb 26, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics

If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.

Feb 26, 2020

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Michael Knights

Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

Simon Henderson

Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

Michael Singh

Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.

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