Democracy & Reform

Policy Analysis on Democracy & Reform

Iraqi Militias Try, and Fail, to Intimidate the Government

Baghdad effectively enforced the rule of law by detaining a senior militia figure, though it still needs to arrest other murder suspects and show the public that October’s election will be safe.

May 27, 2021

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Michael Knights

Video

Brief Analysis

Not (Just) Another Rigged Syrian Election: Implications for Settling the War

A panel of experts discuss the short- and long-term consequences of the 2021 presidential vote, including its potential effects on domestic opposition, regional normalization, future peace prospects, and Western policy.

May 26, 2021

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Vladimir Pran
Hannah Roberts
Wael Sawah
Zahra Albarazi
Emile Hokayem
Emma Beals

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Brief Analysis

A Race of One? Iran Slashes Its Presidential Candidates List

The regime is seemingly removing any obstacle that might prevent Ebrahim Raisi from winning the presidency and, perhaps, succeeding Khamenei down the road, but the risk of further eroding its internal legitimacy is high.

May 25, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Tansiqiya Signals Escalation Versus the United States

The Iraqi militia coordination committee is laying out its political and legal arguments for the removal of U.S. forces.

May 24, 2021

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Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Syrian rebel fighters play a board game in a cafe

Brief Analysis

Stalemate in Northeast Syria: Options for Advancing U.S. Interests

In addition to clarifying its intentions and fortifying its presence in the area, the U.S. government needs to increase its focus on stability, security, and economic development.

May 21, 2021

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Kenneth R. Rosen

Articles & Testimony

Achieving Sustainable Peace in Yemen

A political settlement with the Houthis is important, but no agreement can last without local buy-in and concerted efforts to rebuild Yemen’s infrastructure, institutions, and governance practices.

May 19, 2021

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Elana DeLozier
Adam Baron

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote for president

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Presidential Election Season Kicks Off: Five Takeaways

The upcoming campaign will likely focus on a three-way race between conservative Raisi, conservative-turned-pragmatist Larijani, and reformist-affiliated Jahangiri.

May 17, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

How Fighting With the Palestinians Gave Israel’s Netanyahu a Political Lifeline

The most imminent threat to his rule has fizzled since the shooting began, but domestic anger toward him remains widespread.

May 14, 2021

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Neri Zilber

Articles & Testimony

Russia Pushes a Dangerous Narrative Ahead of Syria’s Sham Election

Moscow would have the world believe that the best route to stability is legitimizing a dictator who plunged his country into war and destabilized the entire Middle East.

May 14, 2021

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv

Articles & Testimony

How War With the Palestinians Triggered Ethnic Violence in Israel

In mixed towns across the country, Arab and Jewish citizens have turned on one another, with substantial implications for the government formation process and other issues.

May 13, 2021

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Neri Zilber

Brief Analysis

Bahrain’s Interlocking Regional and Domestic Tensions

Manama is still grappling with the complex challenge of developing ties with Israel while coping with homegrown Shia militancy.

May 10, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Distinguishing Kawader Hezbollah al-Qudama and Kataib Hezbollah

Nouri al-Maliki is gathering various Iraqi resistance figures who fought both Saddam and the coalition, but this marginal "old timer" party is not the same as Kataib Hezbollah, which has yet to show its hand in parliamentary politics.

May 6, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Israeli politicians Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett

Brief Analysis

Can the Change Coalition End Israel’s Endless Election Cycle?

The diverse coalition may be able to form a viable government, but it will need to navigate carefully in light of internal political differences and Netanyahu’s presence in the opposition as a potential spoiler.

May 6, 2021

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David Makovsky

Brief Analysis

Rehabilitating Assad: The Arab League Embraces a Pariah

Parochial interests and war fatigue are driving many member states to support premature elections and normalization with Damascus, but this approach will only consolidate Assad’s control and help him evade accountability for war crimes.

May 4, 2021

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David Schenker

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada

A U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization that emerged from Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah, works directly with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and has a transnational focus on the shared regional agenda of Iran's "axis of resistance."

May 3, 2021

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

How Iran Employed Iraq's Muqawama in Its Post-Natanz Response

Militias falsely claimed attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets in retaliation for the nuclear incident, underlining how Tehran directs and coordinates each proxy's kinetic and information operations in a centralized manner.

May 3, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

The artist Jacques-Louis David's painting "Napoleon Crossing the Alps"

Brief Analysis

The Rise of “Bonapartism” in Iran

Interest in a strong military president is growing in unexpected sectors, but such an outcome is more likely to strengthen Khamenei’s power than drastically reform the system.

Apr 30, 2021

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Mehdi Khalaji

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Sharia Youth Gathering

The Sharia Youth Gathering is an umbrella movement of social service, cultural, sports, and scouting organizations that is effectively controlled by Kataib Hezbollah through a cadre of linked commanders.

Apr 29, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Imam Hussein Scout Association

The Imam Hussein Scout Association is Kataib Hezbollah’s youth organization and an affiliate of Lebanese Hezbollah's Kishaf al-Imam al-Mahdi youth movement.

Apr 29, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

Brief Analysis

The Zarif Tape: Revelations on Russia, the Qods Force, and Iran’s Election

The foreign minister had much to say about the IRGC branch’s political interference at home and close relations with Moscow, and the regime has done nothing to dispute his account so far.

Apr 29, 2021

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Mehdi Khalaji

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Project Fikra: Defeating Extremism through the Power of Ideas

Fikra n. [Arabic] "Idea"

The Washington Institute's Project Fikra is a multiyear program of research, publication, and network-building designed to generate policy ideas for promoting positive change and countering the spread of extremism in the Middle East.

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Catherine Cleveland

Catherine Cleveland is The Washington Institute's Croft-Wagner Family Senior Fellow and managing editor of Fikra Forum.

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Ben Fishman is the Steven D. Levy Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on North Africa.

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