All Policy Analysis by Assaf Orion

Loosening Tehran’s grip on the strait and its disruption of the global economy would entail not only reducing threats to navigation, but also increasing pressure on the Iranian economy in order to deter further attacks and create leverage for diplomacy.

Beijing has been mostly talk and little walk so far, but once the war ends, it may decide to help Tehran rebuild militarily in return for oil.

Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime's military capabilities.

Washington Institute fellows assess how Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq’s Hashd, and other Iranian proxies and allies are responding to the war, as well as how the Trump administration and partner governments might counter the risk of terrorist attacks given Tehran’s long track record of foreign plots.

The renewed conflict offers an opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah’s capabilities, potentially clearing the way for breakthrough diplomacy with Israel.

Washington Institute experts assess the immediate implications of U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, including the regime’s future after major leadership losses, reactions inside Iran and Lebanon, the fallout for the Gulf states, the contours of potential diplomacy once the fighting stops, and more.

Washington Institute experts assess the immediate fallout of the Syrian government’s advance into SDF-held parts of the northeast, including mutual disinformation campaigns, implications for the Islamic State threat, the terms of new agreements with the Kurds, and the calculus of outside actors like the United States, Israel, and Turkey.

Washington and its allies are waiting for Beirut to acknowledge the difficult but unavoidable truth: that war will resume unless serious action is taken to target all the pillars of Hezbollah’s power, bolster Shia political alternatives, and otherwise satisfy the ceasefire’s most important requirement: disarming the group.

Recent academic output from both countries reveals joint research efforts in numerous military-related fields and some convergence between their defense innovation ecosystems, posing potential risks to the United States and its partners.

With Hamas already regrouping, U.S. officials must help craft targeted language that empowers the Board of Peace to oversee a technocratic administration and stabilization force, with the goal of quickly filling the territory’s governance and security vacuum.

Former Israeli and Lebanese military officials discuss whether the UN force can play any effective role in the urgent tasks of expanding Beirut’s sovereignty and disarming Hezbollah.

Four experts assess how outside players might respond to the showdown, and whether Tehran will switch up its calculus on procurement, attack tactics, and other military matters as the fight goes on.

Three experts examine the security and political situation six months after the ceasefire agreement was signed, including the implications for next year’s Lebanese election, Palestinian refugee camps, and eventual normalization with Israel.

The IDF’s former head of strategic planning describes how politics and ideology are sidelining national security and creating a forever war.

The time for inertia is over—this summer, Security Council members will have a rare and urgent chance to break the spell of illusory “peacekeeping” and advance a model that actually helps keep the peace between Israel and Lebanon.

A former Israeli military official and a Turkey expert discuss what each government wants from Syria, how they can address their most glaring friction points, and what the Trump administration can do to mediate the process.

A “four-zone” reconstruction plan could win Arab, Israeli, and U.S. support while avoiding mass relocations out of Gaza.

Former military officials and experts from Lebanon and Israel discuss how Beirut’s unsettled political dynamics might affect ongoing implementation of the ceasefire and future peacebuilding efforts.

The agreement’s implementation phase is going surprisingly well and has been extended, but maintaining the ceasefire will require officials to resolve the issues in dispute and address Hezbollah’s threats.

The ceasefire is already shaking up Israel’s politics and high command; prompt, well-coordinated action with Washington could help counter threats on several external fronts as well.