All Policy Analysis by Assaf Orion

Join us for an expert webinar on the Hamas-Israel war as the conflict appears to be nearing a decisive moment. Watch live starting at 11:00 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) on Thursday, December 14, 2023.

The country must come to terms with the fact that this war is deeply different from those it has fought in recent decades, and commit unwaveringly to transforming its security approach.

The secretary-general’s latest report documents Hezbollah’s expanding violations—and the growing role that Lebanese government officials and military commanders play in abetting this activity.

Renewing the force’s mandate while blocking Hezbollah’s bid to formally hamstring it are welcome developments, but more concerted diplomatic action will be needed to reverse the downward security trend.

Three experts discuss the worsening situation on the ground and assess whether a new war is likely in the near term.

The group has been erecting structures and sending armed personnel into Israeli territory, decreasing the margin of error for diplomatic solutions and further eroding the credibility of the post-2006 border security regime.

The exchange of threats between Israeli and Hezbollah officials is just one in a series of developments indicating higher risk of miscalculation and large-scale regional conflict.

As Netanyahu promotes widened economic relations with Beijing, he must remain mindful of how his predecessors weighed Washington's deep strategic concerns about national security and technology.

Much has been made about their growing ties, but an in-depth look at their actual activity in various sectors shows that alarmism is unwarranted.

Despite the troubling trends and escalatory incidents described in the latest UN report, the Security Council seems intent on maintaining a failed policy instead of taking urgent action to curb the growing threat of war.

Although the headlines were focused elsewhere, the president’s Israel-Saudi trip included statements, agreements, and newly announced inter-agency dialogues that imply deep implications for China policy.

To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.

At this point, even if the “interim” force was somehow able and willing to implement its mandate in southern Lebanon, it might not be enough to prevent war—but Washington should still press for whatever reforms it can.

In strategic terms, at least, the United States is increasingly shifting its attention to Asia, but this may represent an opportunity for Israel as much as a challenge.

Israel’s ties to China have raised concerns in Washington, but select bilateral activity should be permissible in the context of an irreplaceable U.S.-Israel alliance.

To make UNIFIL more effective and prevent dangerous destabilization in the south, the Security Council should review the force’s mandate more frequently, reallocate its resources to better fit its mission, make reporting more transparent and accurate, and hold the government and LAF accountable for their obstruction.

The military particulars of the clash between Hamas and IDF doctrines reveal much common ground with potential future conflicts involving the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”

The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.

Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.

Hezbollah leaders are still trying to conceal their strategy of hiding military assets in civilian areas, but each self-explosion and Israeli exposure reveals more about the group's political plight, its persistent quest for precision missiles, and its skill with information operations.