Policy Analysis

Renewed warfare with Israel aside, Hezbollah will not be permanently undone unless one of two scenarios occurs: regime change in Iran, or the complete dismantlement of the group’s domestic financial system and political power.

Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime's military capabilities.

Through their continued unwillingness to take on the militia and break Iran’s hold over Lebanon, Beirut and the LAF have effectively chosen the more calamitous path of war with Israel.

Instead of regime change, try regime weakening.

Three experts discuss how Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and pro-Iran militias in Iraq have reacted to the war so far, outlining steps Washington and its regional partners can take to keep them from escalating further.

By offering military expertise and technology to the Gulf states, Kyiv has given the U.S. government a unique opportunity to counter Iran and Russia while boosting the security of American partners and forces in the region.

The two conflicts may appear unrelated, but an al-Qaeda haven in Iran, threats from the Islamic State, and separatist ambitions could supercharge the risks to regional and global security.

The de facto halt to Gulf oil shipments has already helped Moscow win back India as a major oil customer, while the rise in global prices could greatly refresh its depleted Ukraine war budget.

If the Iranian threat to the Middle East is brought to an end, the loose alliance of actors who have long sought this outcome must manage their differences to avoid the regional mistakes made after World War I.

If Beirut fails to disarm the group, target its financial and political foundations, and hold it accountable for a long list of violations against the Lebanese people, a much bleaker alternative scenario will unfold.

For the first time, the region is on the path to sidelining militias and reaping the potential stabilization benefits, though significant obstacles remain.

Beijing is just as concerned about its Gulf partners as it is about China’s “old friends” in Tehran.

By using Syria’s newfound resources as a coalition member and negotiating military assignments at the U.S. embassy, the two governments could offset many of the concerns raised by the withdrawal of American combat units.

Four experts explain why reversing the conflict’s effects on oil and gas production and tanker traffic from the Gulf will likely take much longer than many people realize, with only limited supply alternatives in the meantime.

Iran’s fractured opposition and years of repression make rapid regime change unlikely.

If President Trump gave the Lebanon front just a fraction of the attention he has directed toward Iran and Gaza, he could wind up with the newest Arab member of the Abraham Accords—and a Nobel Peace Prize.

While the United States and Israel are winning based on measures like the degradation of Iran’s naval force and missiles, a broader victory will require securing domestic support and avoiding the maximalism that has hindered past American military efforts.

Washington Institute experts explain what U.S. officials and military planners should be on the lookout for as great power competitors and close allies outside the region consider their responses to the crisis.

Given his strong ties to the IRGC, Khamenei’s son might pursue extreme strategic options.

Putin has been using his position in the region to chip away at Russia’s isolation during the Ukraine war, and another Middle East regime change won’t do much to change that strategy.