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Brief Analysis
The Lebanon Ceasefire: Managing Israeli Public Expectations and U.S. Coordination
In addition to assuaging public fears about the agreement, officials will need to reach a shared understanding with Washington about how to enforce its terms and respond to Hezbollah violations.
۵ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure
The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.
۴ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next
Four experts discuss the agreement’s detailed security provisions, the prospects for successful implementation, and the potential impact on other regional players.
۴ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
David Schenker
Hanin Ghaddar
Assaf Orion
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Spoils of Someone Else’s War:
Acting as a Mediator in Syria Would Improve Putin’s International Standing
Despite Russia’s uncertain response to the Assad regime’s latest embarrassing military setback, Moscow still sees Syria as a critical hotspot on the global stage and will seek to steer events there in its favor.
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Trump Administration Will Have Avenues for Constructive Palestinian Engagement
Mahmoud Abbas seems willing to work with the incoming administration, but will his final legacy be one of diplomatic success, or will he be forced to return to his only remaining tool of “political resistance”?
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Neomi Neumann
Brief Analysis
How Washington Can Salvage Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service
CTS is the most successful U.S. partner force in Iraq, which is why Iran-backed terrorist groups are trying to penetrate and corrupt it.
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Patient Efforts Behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Success in Aleppo
The former jihadist affiliate has changed tremendously in the past few years, and understanding this new reality is crucial to identifying how its current offensive might unfold.
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How Syria’s ‘Diversity-Friendly’ Jihadists Plan on Building a State
As the group consolidates control in newly seized Aleppo, its leader is seeking to allay fears among minorities, pro-Assad residents, and skeptical Western officials alike.
۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How to End the War in Gaza: Lessons from Lebanon
The Lebanon deal shows how Washington and Israel can use their newly gained leverage to resolve the Palestinian crisis.
۲ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Stuart Eizenstat
Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
How the Trump Factor Pushed Israel Towards Lebanon Ceasefire
The Biden White House brokered the deal, but Trump’s return is significantly influencing Binyamin Netanyahu’s actions.
۱ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Population Census in Iraq: A Step Towards Future Development or Imminent Political Conflict?
Last week’s population census in Iraq became the country's first in almost three decades.
۲۸ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Azhar Al-Rubaie
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia List of U.S. “Greatest Hits” Gives Insight Into Attack Cell Structure
A poster of thirty-six militia “martyrs” provides useful data about who was killed by U.S. forces at specific times and places.
۲۶ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Michael Knights
Ameer al-Kaabi
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Downscaling Their Anti-Israel Actions
Iran-backed groups were already powering down for weeks before Israel delivered a stark warning on November 18, after which attacks dropped off almost entirely.
۲۶ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
۲۵ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran
Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.
۲۱ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Farzin Nadimi
James E. Shepard
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Nineveh’s Municipal Council Reveals about the Iran-Turkey Power Struggle in Iraq
The ongoing tensions in Nineveh's municipal council highlight how regional powers vie for influence in Iraq's local elections.
۲۰ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Filip Sommer
Rebwar Rauf Salih
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Winds of Change: Ankara’s Subtle Shifts Towards Reconciliation with Kurdish Elements in Turkey
Signs that Ankara is interested in a potential reconciliation with the PKK could lead an end to a decades-long conflict and have ripple effects across the region, although numerous obstacles remain.
۲۰ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Anti-Israel Attacks by Iraq-Based Group with Implied Saudi Membership
A group with a Saudi-linked name has claimed six attacks on Israel, but they were probably launched from Iraq using Kataib Hezbollah and/or Houthi drone teams.
۱۹ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Unveil SAD Aircraft Carrier
Saraya Awliya al-Dam launched a Shahed drone from a small boat in an apparent effort to draw attention by demonstrating a rudimentary new capability.
۱۹ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Addressing Entities of Particular Concern: Non-State Actors and Egregious Violations of Religious Freedom
A terrorism expert assesses how Washington and its partners can best counter—and in some cases engage—jihadist actors in Afghanistan and the Sahel amid growing limitations on U.S. influence in such locales.
۱۹ نوامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
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