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SHAKY CEASEFIRES, PERILOUS AFTERSHOCKS

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Shifting from Diplomatic Urgency to Strategic Patience on Iran

For decades, Tehran has repeatedly exploited Western diplomatic urgency to extract concessions, buy time, and refill its coffers; the answer is to turn time itself against the increasingly vulnerable regime.

May 19, 2026

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Zohar Palti

A bread seller in Cairo walks past a sign promoting President Sisi - source: Reuters

Is Egypt the Biggest Loser of the Iran War?

Cairo’s economic mismanagement has increased the country’s reliance on Gulf largesse, but that spigot may soon run dry for diplomatic and financial reasons.

May 18, 2026

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David Schenker

A Shahed-136 drone in a military parade in Tehran - source: Reuters

Iran’s Drone Strategy (Part 1): Wartime Performance and Adaptations

The war has shown that Iran’s one-way attack drones are highly adaptable tools of coercion and military effect, able to continue imposing costs across the Gulf region and beyond even after heavy losses.

May 22, 2026

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Farzin Nadimi

How to Accomplish U.S. Objectives in Iran

An agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade could make it easier to ultimately address more complex issues such as Iran’s uranium stockpile, missile program, and support for proxies.

May 14, 2026

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Michael Singh

For Iranians to Rise Up, a Clear Path for Regime Defectors Is Needed

Neither the United States nor Israel has offered the concrete incentives needed to spur high-level defections from the security, political, and clerical establishments—a crucial precondition for regime change.

May 13, 2026

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Holly Dagres

Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?

The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.

May 4, 2026

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Michael Sobolik
Grant Rumley

Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland

Although the threat may be somewhat diminished by the damage inflicted on Tehran’s security and intelligence agencies, the regime will reconstitute those capabilities over time and may calculate that the benefits of attacking highly vulnerable targets inside the United States outweigh the risks.

May 6, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

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Institute Expertise on the Iran War and Its Aftermath

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan, The Washington Institute's William Sudhaus Senior Fellow, studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Formerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

3 Things to Watch for: Israel-Lebanon Talks

Recent Institute Analysis

Photo of an Islamic State car bomb attack in Mayadin, Syria, May 2025.

A Counterterrorism Strategy Disconnected from the Terrorist Landscape

In focusing on cartels and gangs in the Western Hemisphere as well as left-wing extremists, the administration's “radical shift” elides certain threats from the Middle East along with the political right, while appearing to write off diplomacy and capacity building as key tools.

May 15, 2026

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Michael Jacobson

Chinese president Xi walks with U.S. president Trump in Beijing in 2017 - source: Reuters

Trump’s China Trip: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

The first presidential visit to China in nearly a decade will cover trade, technology, and a range of other bilateral topics, including frank conversations on Middle East subjects such as Beijing’s support to Iran and the wider global repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

May 13, 2026

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Grant Rumley
Henry Tugendhat
Elizabeth Dent
Anna Borshchevskaya
Souhire Medini

A police officer loyal to the Palestinian Authority stands guard on a wall at PA headquarters in Ramallah in 2007 - source: Reuters

Fatah Meets in Ramallah

The first gathering in a decade by the Palestinian Authority’s dominant party will cast light on a post-Abbas future and

May 14, 2026

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Limits of Gulf Unity

If left unchecked, the reemerging rift between the two Gulf powerhouses could fragment the region into competing poles, further roil

Spring 2026

Video: America and the Middle East at 250 with Dr. Martin Kramer

Historian Martin Kramer, the Walter P. Stern Fellow at The Washington Institute, explains how America's early leaders navigated the republic's first encounters with the Middle East—and hears some echoes of today's policy dilemmas.

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,