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A U.S. Navy F-35 launches at night - source: Department of Defense

THE IRAN WAR

SHAKES THE MIDDLE EAST

What Kind of Supreme Leader Would Mojtaba Khamenei Be?

Given his strong ties to the IRGC, Khamenei’s son might pursue extreme strategic options.

Mar 5, 2026

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Patrick Clawson
Farzin Nadimi

Epic Fury and Roaring Lion: From War Scenarios to Pressing Postwar Questions in Iran

Washington Institute experts assess the immediate implications of U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, including the regime’s future after major leadership losses, reactions inside Iran and Lebanon, the fallout for the Gulf states, the contours of potential diplomacy once the fighting stops, and more.

Mar 1, 2026

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Assaf Orion
Michael Eisenstadt
Holly Dagres
Patrick Clawson
Hanin Ghaddar
April Longley Alley
Richard Nephew

Protesters display Iranian, Syrian, Palestinian, and Hezbollah flags - source: Reuters

The Wartime Role of Iran’s “Axis”: Countering Proxy and Terrorist Threats

Washington Institute fellows assess how Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq’s Hashd, and other Iranian proxies and allies are responding to the war, as well as how the Trump administration and partner governments might counter the risk of terrorist attacks given Tehran’s long track record of foreign plots.

Mar 5, 2026

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Assaf Orion
Hanin Ghaddar
Michael Knights
April Longley Alley
Michael Jacobson
Matthew Levitt

In the Middle East, Chaos Is Putin’s New Ally

Putin has been using his position in the region to chip away at Russia’s isolation during the Ukraine war, and another Middle East regime change won’t do much to change that strategy.

Mar 5, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya

War Comes to the Gulf

With Iran seemingly intent on continuing its strikes against Gulf targets and regional leaders mulling whether and how to respond, what can policymakers and military planners expect to see next in terms of likely target sets, risks to civilian areas, concerns over air defense munition supplies, and potential repercussions for energy and commercial shipping interests?

Mar 3, 2026

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Elizabeth Dent
Michael Eisenstadt
Noam Raydan
April Longley Alley

America and Israel’s War to Remake the Middle East

Much more so than even last year’s war, the two allies are equal military partners in the current fight, but the growing gaps between their publics could impede cooperation on the next set of major policy issues in the region.

Mar 4, 2026

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Dana Stroul

Deterrence and Escalation Dynamics with Iran:

Insights from Four Decades of Conflict and a Twelve-Day War

The conflict in June 2025 laid bare longstanding misconceptions about escalation management with the regime and could hold lessons as the United States contemplates further military action.

Feb 20, 2026

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Michael Eisenstadt

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Institute Expertise on All Aspects of the Iran War

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Fromerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

Recent Institute Analysis

A photo illustration shownig President Donald Trump, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu - source: White House, Reuters, illustration by The Washington Institute

Another Lebanon Campaign: A Path Toward Peace?

The renewed conflict offers an opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah’s capabilities, potentially clearing the way for breakthrough diplomacy with Israel.

Mar 4, 2026

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Assaf Orion

President Trump meets with members of his administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and chief of staff Susie Wiles, at the start of major combat operations against Iran in 2026 - source: White House

The Confusion in Washington Spreads from the Top Down

There is the fog of war, and then there is the Trump administration.

Mar 3, 2026

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Simon Henderson

The Long, Sad History of U.S. Regime Change Promises

From FDR to the Bushes, Washington’s pledges to bring “freedom” to the Middle East have ended badly.

Mar 2, 2026

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Robert Satloff

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: An Obituary

Holly Dagres reflects on the rise and fall of Iran’s late leader, who maintained brutal theocratic rule at home and an anti-Western “axis of resistance” in the Middle East for decades.

Feb 28, 2026

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Holly Dagres

Hezbollah Is Winning the Race to Rearm in Lebanon

To gauge the true effectiveness of the LAF's disarmament effort, one must go beyond the number of patrols, raids, and seized weapons and take a hard look at what it has done—and not done—to search private property, target underground facilities, stop cross-border smuggling from Syria, and transparently dispose of armaments.

Feb 26, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,