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A commercial ship crosses the Bab al-Mandab Strait under the protection of a German navy frigate.

SHAKY CEASEFIRE,

PERILOUS AFTERSHOCKS

Podcast: Who’s Calling the Shots in Iran? With Suzanne Maloney and Raz Zimmt

After nearly six weeks of war, the U.S. and Iran agreed on April 8 to a fragile two-week ceasefire. But Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan Sunday after 21 hours of high-level talks with the Iranians without making progress toward a deal to end the war. President Trump then threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil-shipping route that Iran has throttled. However uncertain the road ahead may be, one thing is increasingly clear: in a postwar Iran, the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps looks set to further dominate the regime’s complex policymaking structure. Host David Makovsky sits down with two leading Iran experts, Suzanne Maloney and Raz Zimmt, to explore how decisions may be made in Tehran during the ceasefire and beyond.

LAF soldiers study a map - source: Lebanese Armed Forces

Lebanon-Israel Talks: Defining Zones of Possible Agreement

With Washington’s help, there is a path forward for Beirut and Jerusalem to agree on something that is more limited than a full ceasefire, and that enables them to launch negotiations to advance both the disarmament of Hezbollah and the achievement of bilateral peace.

Apr 13, 2026

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Robert Satloff

A photo illustration depicts chess pieces and the Iranian and U.S. flags - source: Reuters

How Trump Could Still Get a Strategic Win from the Iran War

As long as the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and enriched uranium is shipped out, ending the war quickly may be Washington’s best bet, since Tehran would be left to deal with dire domestic problems it has no answer for.

Apr 9, 2026

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Dennis Ross

A sign and barrier along the Israel-Lebanon border - source: Reuters

“Once and for All” Again? The Contours of Israel’s Latest Campaign in Lebanon

The military and diplomatic risks of reentering south Lebanon are weighty, but Israel can mitigate them by publicly clarifying its security objectives, pursuing a bilateral political horizon, focusing its military efforts, and (finally) holding officials in Beirut accountable.

Apr 9, 2026

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Assaf Orion

An Iranian woman walks by the scene of a U.S. airstrike in Tehran - source: Reuters

Video

In the Dark and in Danger: Iran’s Internet Shutdown and Wartime Repression

Human rights experts diagnose the current public mood in Iran and discuss how foreign governments can help counter the regime’s growing use of internet blackouts and other digital repression tools.

Apr 10, 2026

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Mahsa Alimardani
Nazanin Boniadi
Roya Boroumand

A man walks by a mural of international currencies

How the Iran War Will Upend the Global Economy

Beyond the widely discussed risk of energy shocks, the war also seems likely to spark a prolonged debt crisis, especially for the world’s poorest nations.

Apr 8, 2026

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Henry Tugendhat

Webcast Wednesday: What’s Next for Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza?

Join us for an expert conversation exploring what it will take to find diplomatic solutions to the intertwined challenges in multiple theaters across the Middle East, from Iran to Lebanon to Gaza. Featuring Michael Herzog, Robert Satloff, Hanin Ghaddar, moderated by Dana Stroul. Watch live starting at 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) on Wednesday, April 15, 2026.

Learn more about this event.

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Institute Expertise on the Iran War and Its Aftermath

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan, The Washington Institute's William Sudhaus Senior Fellow, studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Formerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

Recent Institute Analysis

Lebanon's Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry - source: Reuters

Israel-Lebanon Peace: Will Berri Remain a Hindrance?

The two governments have agreed to direct talks that could (and should) turn into a wider U.S.-brokered peace process, but only if officials are prepared to counter potential spoilers like Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri.

Apr 10, 2026

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Hanin Ghaddar

Iraqi protesters display Iranian and Popular Mobilization Forces militia flags at a demonstration in Baghdad following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei - source: Reuters

Iraq Is at Another Crossroads with Iran-Backed Militias—and Washington

Although U.S. officials should keep pushing Baghdad to move against these groups, the Iran war has demonstrated the need to seek other avenues of pressure and recalibrate the bilateral relationship.

Apr 8, 2026

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David Schenker

A solar field in Morocco - source: Reuters

The Iran War’s Reverberations in North Africa

The crisis will challenge economic and political stability in the Maghreb countries, but they will also have opportunities—with Washington’s help—to fortify their prewar progress by filling gaps in global energy markets and other key sectors affected by the war.

Mar 31, 2026

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Sabina Henneberg

Syrian Army recruits attend their graduation ceremony from special forces training - source: Reuters

Syria Is Not Ready to Wage War Beyond Its Borders

The U.S. metric for effective cooperation shouldn’t be whether Syria is willing to fight Iran’s proxies in Lebanon or Iraq, but whether it continues advancing regional stability by securing its borders, limiting the flow of Iranian weapons and fighters, and coordinating politically with neighbors.

Mar 24, 2026

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Andrew J. Tabler

Can Hezbollah Be Dismantled?

Renewed warfare with Israel aside, Hezbollah will not be permanently undone unless one of two scenarios occurs: regime change in Iran, or the complete dismantlement of the group’s domestic financial system and political power.

Mar 17, 2026

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Hanin Ghaddar

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,