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The Rise of “Bonapartism” in Iran

Simon Henderson

The artist Jacques-Louis David's painting "Napoleon Crossing the Alps"

Interest in a strong military president is growing in unexpected sectors, but such an outcome is more likely to strengthen Khamenei’s power than drastically reform the system.

Apr 30, 2021

Want to Sell F-35s to the UAE? Time to Address the China Factor

Mehdi Khalaji

To safeguard U.S. national security, the Biden administration needs to hold the UAE to the same standards it demands of other partners in the Joint Strike Fighter program.

Apr 26, 2021

Is Stalemate the Least Bad Option in Syria?

David Schenker

If only to avoid far worse outcomes, Washington should reject Assad’s bogus “reelection” and keep supporting Israeli strikes, the SDF’s viability, and refugee aid.

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David Pollock

Employment Opportunity: Media Relations Associate

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy is a nonpartisan think tank focused on advancing a balanced and realistic understanding of American interests in the Middle East. We are currently seeking a fulltime Media Relations Associate in our Washington, D.C., office.

Webcast Friday

Photo showing the Iron Dome defense system intercepting Hamas rockets over Ashkelon, Israel, in May 2021.

Video

Hamas-Israel Violence: Context and Trajectory

Has the two-year quiet between Israel and Hamas ended, and will violence spill into the West Bank? Join us for an expert webcast to explore the situation and what Washington can do to help de-escalate the situation. Watch live starting at 12:00 noon EDT on Friday, May 14, 2021.

May 14, 2021, starting at 12:00 noon EDT (1600 GMT)

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Ghaith al-Omari
Ehud Yaari
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen

Transition Webcasts

An Expanded Agenda for U.S.-Israel Partnership: New Technologies, New Opportunities

Experts discuss how the two allies can work more closely on everything from artificial intelligence to missile defense, ideally with help from emerging Arab partners.

May 7, 2021

Michael Eisenstadt
Henry "Trey" Obering III
Samantha Ravich
David Pollock

An expert conversation on the pitfalls and potential areas of cooperation between Washington and Ankara in the coming years.

Can Erdogan Charm Biden?

Apr 21, 2021

Soner Cagaptay
Asli Aydintasbas
Max Hoffman
Jenny White

Satellite image of the Red Sea region and the Arabian Peninsula

Don't Part the Red Sea: Formulating Holistic Policy Toward a Key Region

A former NAVCENT commander joins a panel of distinguished diplomats and experts to discuss why Washington should approach the region’s disparate economic, political, and security issues in a more integrated fashion.

Apr 19, 2021

For Diplomacy to Work, Iran Must Understand That It Cannot Overplay Its Hand

John Miller
Susan L. Ziadeh
Tibor Nagy
Elana DeLozier

In Focus: Renewed U.S. Diplomacy with Iran

Although the Biden administration strongly favors a diplomatic path to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, it needs to show that it will exercise other options if Tehran makes a viable deal impossible.

Apr 26, 2021

Iranian Nuclear Breakout: What It Is and How to Calculate It

Dennis Ross

Nuclear warhead schematics from the Manhattan Project, 1945

With a basic knowledge of uranium enrichment and an interactive spreadsheet, governments and even the public can quickly work out how close Tehran may be to a nuclear weapon.

Mar 24, 2021

The Zarif Tape: Revelations on Russia, the Qods Force, and Iran’s Election

Simon Henderson

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

The foreign minister had much to say about the IRGC branch’s political interference at home and close relations with Moscow, and the regime has done nothing to dispute his account so far.

Apr 29, 2021

Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone Insights from Four Decades of Conflict

Mehdi Khalaji

The United States has repeatedly failed to understand the unique requirements of gray zone deterrence. A U.S. strategy would not only facilitate more successful diplomacy with Tehran but also enhance efforts to counter other actors such as China and Russia.

Apr 14, 2021

The Case for a Holistic U.S. Policy Toward the Emerging Red Sea Region

Michael Eisenstadt

Webcast: Redevelopment & Deconfliction in Syria

Video

The Economic Future of Northeast Syria

Experts discuss the humanitarian, trade, and security measures that are necessary to stabilizing the northeast and preventing the Islamic State and Assad from extending their harmful influence there.

Apr 23, 2021

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Jennifer Cafarella
Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff
Kenneth R. Rosen

New Study Release

'A Caliphate That Gathered' Addressing the Challenge of Jihadist Foreign Fighter Hubs

By devoting resources to areas of concentrated recruitment, the Biden administration can reduce the scope of future Middle East conflicts along with the likelihood that U.S. troops will once again be drawn into them.

Apr 15, 2021

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Nate Rosenblatt

Institute Experts Urge Biden Administration to Clarify to Palestinian Authority Implications of Hamas Participation in Elections

Hamas participation in upcoming Palestinian Authority elections could lead to a step backwards for U.S.-Palestinian relations. Elections that produce a PA whose ministers and officials include people unwilling to renounce violence, recognize Israel, and abide by past agreements are incompatible with the ultimate objective of a two-state solution. Clear communication ahead of the vote could avert major problems later.

Read the full statement.

2021 Presidential Transition Studies

Satellite map of wider Rea Sea with country names

To promote stability and other U.S. interests, Washington must reshape its approach to this increasingly complex staging ground for global competition.

Apr 1, 2021

Rethinking U.S. Efforts on Counterterrorism: Toward a Sustainable Plan Two Decades After 9/11

Elana DeLozier

Soldiers in Africa, in Syria/Iraq, sensors, pen, other technology

The shift away from a U.S.-led military posture will require that Washington repair its damaged credibility with allies abroad. A major task at home will be disentangling counterterrorism budgets from the military budgets on which they have long been grafted.

Mar 8, 2021

Asset Test 2021: How the U.S. Can Keep Benefiting from Its Alliance with Israel

Matthew Levitt

U.S.-Israel cooperation images: in agtech, medicine, military, etc.

Areas for especially timely U.S.-Israel cooperation include climate resilience, agtech, and medical research, as well as longstanding work in the military and security arenas.

Feb 24, 2021

Defining a Realistic Policy Toward Erdogan's Turkey: Advice for the Biden Administration

Michael Eisenstadt
David Pollock

Erdogan, Turkish protestors, Halkbank, Twitter images

U.S. concerns center on Turkey’s democratic backslide and deepening ties between Erdogan and Putin—but the Turkish president also wants to develop a rapport with Joe Biden and fortify his country’s weakened economy.

Mar 24, 2021

Defining a Mature, Balanced Relationship with Saudi Arabia An Urgent Task for the Biden Administration

Soner Cagaptay

MbS, King Salman, Saudi map, fighter jet

A revamped approach to the alliance should stay focused on shared goals, from ensuring a stable oil market to promoting a more tolerant version of Islam at home and abroad.

Feb 22, 2021

Seizing Opportunities and Strengthening Alliances in Northwest Africa: Ideas for Policy Toward Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia

Dennis Ross
Robert Satloff

Modest investments of U.S. diplomatic capital, economic aid, and security assistance can help these three countries and advance American interests.

Feb 3, 2021

The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks: Openings and Obstacles

Robert Satloff
Sarah Feuer

A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.

Jan 5, 2021

Building Bridges for Peace: U.S. Policy Toward Arab States, Palestinians, and Israel

Dennis Ross

Map of Israeli bilateral relationships with Arab states

The Biden administration can succeed by strengthening and expanding Israeli normalization with Arab states and pursuing gradualism on the Palestinian issue.

Jan 26, 2021

Palestinian Politics After Abbas Sudden Succession Essay Series

David Makovsky

Recent Webcast

Photo of Muslim World League secretary-general Mohammad Al-Issa visiting Auschwitz

Video

Teaching the Holocaust in the Arab World

A remarkable panel of Arab educators, activists, and civic leaders share their experiences with breaking regional taboos and formulating effective ways to teach youths about genocide.

Apr 12, 2021

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Ali al-Nuaimi
Zeina Barakat
El Mehdi Boudra

Sudden Succession Studies

Throughout his tenure as leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas has studiously avoided grooming a successor, instead consolidating his control over numerous Palestinian entities and sidelining officials he perceived as threatening to his rule. When he eventually exits the scene, Abbas will leave many leadership roles to be filled—including in the PLO, Fatah movement, and national security agencies.

May 5, 2020

Ghaith al-Omari
Ehud Yaari

Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void Sudden Succession Essay Series

The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Dec 30, 2019

A Fifty-Year Reign? MbS and the Future of Saudi Arabia Sudden Succession Essay Series

Simon Henderson

Whether the young Saudi crown prince ultimately ascends to the throne will entail plenty of plot twists, but it also holds serious implications for the kingdom, the region, and U.S. interests.

Apr 22, 2019

Simon Henderson

Webcast with Tony Blair

Video

America, the Middle East, and the World: A Conversation with Tony Blair

The former Prime Minister discusses the challenges and opportunities facing the Biden administration twenty years after 9/11 and a decade after the Arab Spring.

January 11, 2021

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Tony Blair

Recent Webcasts

Assistant secretary of state David Schenker speaks at the Department of State in Washington, DC, alongside secretary of state Mike Pompeo

Middle East Policy from Trump to Biden: Views from Inside the State Department’s Near East Bureau

The former assistant secretary of state in charge of the Middle East portfolio from 2019-2021 discusses his time in office and how the region’s challenges and opportunities are evolving at the start of the Biden administration.

March 10, 2021

David Schenker
Robert Satloff

Iran's Long Game in Syria

Three scholars explore the stunning breadth of Iranian dominance over Damascus and what this means for any U.S. plans to foster stability in Syria or reopen negotiations with Tehran.

Mar 29, 2021

Rethinking U.S. Counterterrorism Two Decades After 9/11

Oula A. Alrifai
Nakissa Jahanbani
Mehdi Khalaji

National Guard soldiers on a counterterrorism patrol in San Francisco

Three veteran counterterrorism practitioners from recent administrations take stock of America’s overall strategy, foreign posture, and domestic threats at the

Mar 17, 2021

The Economic Future of Northeast Syria

Experts discuss the humanitarian, trade, and security measures that are necessary to stabilizing the northeast and preventing the Islamic State

Apr 23, 2021

In Focus: Democracy & Reform

Bahrain’s Interlocking Regional and Domestic Tensions

Manama is still grappling with the complex challenge of developing ties with Israel while coping with homegrown Shia militancy.

May 10, 2021

Simon Henderson

Kawader Hezbollah al-Qudama (the Old-timer Hezbollah Cadres)

Kawader Hezbollah al-Qudama, a new electoral partner to former premier Nouri al-Maliki, is not the same as Kataib Hezbollah. It contains members of the older Islamic Resistance cells that fought Saddam and then the U.S.-led coalition after 2003. Maliki is gathering marginal resistance figures to him and Kataib Hezbollah has still not openly shown its hand in parliamentary politics.

May 6, 2021

Can the Change Coalition End Israel’s Endless Election Cycle?

Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

Israeli politicians Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett

The diverse coalition may be able to form a viable government, but it will need to navigate carefully in light of internal political differences and Netanyahu’s presence in the opposition as a potential spoiler.

May 6, 2021

David Makovsky

Profile: Ahd Allah Islamic Movement

Ahd Allah Islamic Movement is a social and cultural movement built around Kataib Hezbollah ideologue Sayyed Hashem al-Haidari.

May 5, 2021

The Challenges behind Youth Leadership in the Arab World

Hamdi Malik

Recently in Fikra Forum

Fikra Forum

Arab institutions and Arab youth themselves are both responsible for a lack of community engagement among young people in Arab countries.

May 11, 2021

The Dangers of the United States Ignoring Intra-Kurdish Dialogue in Syria

Amro Selim

Fikra Forum

The United States' approach to intra-Kurdish dialogue requires a profound understanding of regional history and dynamics, without which it risks further complications and difficulties in Syria.

May 11, 2021

The Assad Regime Is Using ISIS to Justify its Activities in Eastern Syria

Azad Ahmed Ali

To combat the effects of the regime’s destabilizing activities in eastern Syria, the United States can focus on supporting local

May 10, 2021

Diplomacy Between Italy and Egypt at a Low Point

Italian-Egyptian relations are once again at a low point, this time for the detention of Egyptian citizen Patrick Zaki—a student

May 7, 2021

Counterterrorism Lecture Series

The Counterterrorism Role of Homeland Security Investigations

A closer look at the inner workings of HSI, a little-known agency with unique authorities that are instrumental in solving numerous terrorism cases every year.

Dec 3, 2020

Louis Rodi

European Counterterrorism in the COVID Era: Views from Europol

A senior Europol official discusses the increasingly complex radicalization and terrorism situation facing Europe, and how the pandemic is creating new risks on both fronts.

Sep 1, 2020

Rehabilitating Assad: The Arab League Embraces a Pariah

Wil van Gemert

In Focus: Gulf States

Bahrain’s Interlocking Regional and Domestic Tensions

Manama is still grappling with the complex challenge of developing ties with Israel while coping with homegrown Shia militancy.

May 10, 2021

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Simon Henderson

May 4, 2021

David Schenker

Profile: Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada

Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada is a splinter of Kataib Hezbollah that works directly with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has a transnational focus on the shared regional agenda of the Iran-backed axis of resistance.

Michael Knights

How Iran Employed Iraq's Muqawama in its Post-Natanz Response

Iran's post-Natanz face-saving effort saw the Iraqi muqawama falsely claim retaliation attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets in Iraq, underlining a case of centralized Iranian direction of muqawama information operations, and coordination of Iraqi muqawama actions with broader kinetic operations by Iran's Axis of Resistance.

UAE Wealth Fund to Buy Share of Israeli Gas Field

Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

If the $1.1 billion deal goes ahead, it will strengthen Abu Dhabi’s claim to be a player in the East Mediterranean.

Apr 27, 2021