Syria

Ankara’s calculations about the rebel province appear to have shifted, though it still hopes to use the situation as leverage for constraining the YPG and preventing another refugee influx.

Safeguarding America’s widely agreed interests in the Middle East requires a substantial presence, as does the region’s tendency to export insecurity.

After Turkey’s July 2016 failed military uprising, the leadership initiated purges and reforms aimed at ensuring the military’s future loyalty, but raising questions about the operational efficiency and effectiveness of the newly configured Turkish Armed Forces. Two subsequent cross-border operations into northern Syria provide valuable insight: Operation Euphrates Shield, lasting

Many major jurisdictions are up for grabs, with potentially weighty foreign policy implications if Erdogan maintains his current coalition’s hardline nationalist trajectory.

Establishing such a zone in the northeast would give Ankara and the United States a unique opportunity to work together, provided Washington can convince its European allies to participate as well.

Unless Washington changes its mixed message on foreign fighters and helps its European allies find practical solutions, it may soon face another mass outbreak of seasoned operatives from Syria.

Reestablishing control in Manbij is the only way to build influence across the Euphrates, and now that U.S. troops are set to leave, both Russia and local Arab tribes may support this regime goal.

The Kremlin often becomes more aggressive abroad to help shore up its legitimacy at home, so it may be more than happy to maintain a permanent state of low-level, managed conflict in the region.

China likely hoped to find economic opportunities in Syria's reconstruction—yet another example of how it relies on the security umbrella provided by U.S. troops in international conflict zones.