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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations
Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.
Jul 24, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities
Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.
Jul 17, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Role of the Military in Russian Politics and Foreign Policy Over the Past 20 Years
The Kremlin’s interventions in Syria and elsewhere are just one part of its society-wide efforts to bolster Putin’s domestic standing via the security sphere.
Jul 2, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Fragile Status Quo in Northeast Syria
The mixed Kurdish-Arab zone could buckle under any number of security, health, and economic threats, especially if the United States surrenders to Russian and Turkish interests by withdrawing its remaining forces.
Jul 1, 2020
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  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Merging Talks on Northeast Syria with a Whole-of-Country Approach
Deeper Turkish engagement with the Syrian Kurds would be helpful, but any such talks need to be linked with ongoing efforts to contain the Islamic State and advance the UN’s broader Geneva process.
Jun 25, 2020
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  • Jomana Qaddour
  • Cansu Camlibel
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Is Regime Collapse on Syria's Horizon? Evaluating Assad's Grip on Power
A State Department official explains the latest sanctions against entities that do business with Assad, while two experts assess the regime’s current status and its susceptibility to foreign pressure.
Jun 22, 2020
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  • Joel Rayburn
  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Sam Dagher
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Military Activity in the East Mediterranean Echoes Its Approach to Syria
Although Moscow would face many challenges if it tries to establish permanent offensive and A2AD capabilities in Libya like it has in Syria, its covert actions thus far show a commitment to playing the long game against NATO in the East Mediterranean.
Jun 17, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation
New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.
Jun 11, 2020
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  • Dana Stroul
  • Katherine Bauer
Video
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State's Resurgence in the COVID Era?
From Defeat to Renewal in Iraq and Syria
Two experts assess the recent attack patterns and future prospects of a group that once seemed on the cusp of defeat in both countries.
May 29, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Michael Knights
United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Can the UN Still Save Syria?
Views from a Former Special Envoy
Is it too late for the UN to counter the Assad regime and its allies on their abuses or to salvage cross-border mechanisms for humanitarian aid? Former UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura joined a virtual Policy Forum to probe the prospects.
May 25, 2020
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  • Staffan de Mistura
Brief Analysis
Don’t Overthink the Assad-Makhlouf Feud
The Syrian leader’s dramatic war of words with his massively wealthy cousin may seem like a major fracture inside the regime, but the dynamics of past and present family disputes paint a different picture.
May 22, 2020
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Growing Tensions in South Syria Signal More Regime Attacks
Given the Syrian army’s recent deployments in Deraa and Russia’s half-hearted attempts to halt them, the situation may soon lead to renewed shelling of civilian areas and myriad complications for Israel and Jordan.
May 18, 2020
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  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
The Jihadi-Backed Salvation Government and Covid-19 in Northwest Syria
Disease prevention efforts in Idlib illustrate the movement's political evolution and its differences from the Islamic State, but the pandemic may still hit the area hard given inconsistent implementation and years of regime destruction.
May 15, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Covid-19 and Middle East Proxy Wars: The Storm Before the Calm?
Although the pandemic’s full regional consequences remain murky, some early trends are becoming clear, from caution among certain proxy patrons, to escalation among others, and a looming financial crunch for all.
Apr 29, 2020
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Coronavirus Has Opposite Effects on Turkish Policy in Syria and Libya
Ceasefire agreements and contagion concerns will likely limit Turkish operations in Syria for the time being, but Ankara has no such constraints in its Libya proxy war.
Apr 17, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Faint Red Line: How the West Should Respond to the Syria Chemical Weapons Report
Europe and the United States can no longer dismiss the strategic and tactical relevance of the regime’s CW attacks, which have continued throughout the conflict and demand further military, diplomatic, and judicial action.
Apr 13, 2020
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  • Tobias Schneider
  • Theresa Lutkefend
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Three Governments Confront the Coronavirus
The rebel administration in Idlib and the Kurdish-led government in the northeast have been more proactive and transparent than the Assad regime, but their populations still need urgent, direct international aid—without the UN’s imprimatur if necessary.
Apr 1, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition
Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.
Mar 30, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Idlib May Become the Next Gaza Strip
Given the military situation on the ground and the overriding interests of each party, the jihadist-run rebel pocket will likely be further reduced into a small, overpopulated border strip north of the M4 highway.
Mar 26, 2020
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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