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Shia Politics

Policy Analysis on Shia Politics

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Iraqi forces marching
In-Depth Reports
Back to Basics
U.S.-Iraq Security Cooperation in the Post-Combat Era
Questions about the viability of the Iraqi security forces—brought into sharp focus by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—require a data-led analysis of where the forces are today and what mix of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can help them thrive in the future.
Oct 26, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
Audio
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Grip on Lebanon Is Weakening. Here’s How Washington Can Help.
Instead of continuing to work with corrupt Lebanese state institutions, the United States should pursue opportunities with the business community and civil society, whose members are eager to separate themselves from the group.
Sep 20, 2021
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Hossein Moanes
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hossein Moanes Sparks Angry Words Between Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq
The senior KH member now leads a new political movement that is competing with other Iran-backed militia factions for votes in the coming election.
Sep 14, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Nasrallah
In-Depth Reports
A Strategy to Contain Hezbollah:
Ideas and Recommendations
Since securing a parliamentary majority, the group has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and the buildup of its military arsenal.
Aug 24, 2021
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
PMF
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Iraqi Muqawama Are Feeling Isolated and Threatened
The brazen approach taken by "resistance" factions in recent weeks was designed to undermine the government, but it is now coming back to hurt them.
Jun 19, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Syrian Shia youth training for military
In-Depth Reports
In the Service of Ideology:
Iran's Religious and Socioeconomic Activities in Syria
The dalliance between the Assad family and Iran’s Shia clerics began in the 1970s. Back then, before the Islamic Revolution, the Syrian leader held leverage. Now the tables have been turned.
Mar 14, 2021
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Is Vulnerable. Lokman Slim's Assassination Proves It.
The Biden administration and the French government must draw clear redlines, or the group will escalate its campaign of terror.
Feb 16, 2021
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Frech president Emmanuel Macron inspects the site of the Beirut port explosion
In-Depth Reports
A Paris Reset on Hezbollah?
Implications for French Interests and Regional Security
In this study, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt explores the history and current status of Hezbollah operations against French interests, and details how a change in Paris's longstanding opposition to designating the group could bolster French efforts to stabilize Lebanon.
Oct 20, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction
The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its majority Shia population and its Sunni community.
Sep 11, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Green Without Borders:
The Operational Benefits of Hezbollah's Environmental NGO
In this illuminating Policy Note -- complete with detailed maps and satellite imagery -- Matthew Levitt and Samantha Stern tell the story of the Lebanese NGO Green Without Borders and explain why the mandate for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon must be reworked.
May 14, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Samantha Stern
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Honored, Not Contained:
The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces
In this detailed Policy Focus, meant as a primer for Iraqi and international agencies, leading scholars examine the current status of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces.
Mar 23, 2020
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Articles & Testimony
Iran Is Losing the Middle East, Protests in Lebanon and Iraq Show
Recent upsurges in dissent cross sectarian lines and reveal the governing incompetence at the core of Iranian proxy leadership.
Oct 22, 2019
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
In-Depth Reports
Shia Leadership After Sistani
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The current holder of the highest clerical rank in Shia Islam is eighty-nine-year-old Ali al-Sistani, who is based in Najaf, Iraq. Sistani has played an important role in Iraq’s post-Saddam era, supporting political reconciliation and a constitution-based society. While the transnational reach of marjaiya will likely diminish after Sistani leaves the scene, the specific contours of this shift and Tehran's efforts to intervene remain an open question.
Sep 10, 2019
◆
  • Ali Mamouri
  • Mehdi Khalaji
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Lebanese Allies Can Be Contained
The group’s local partners complied when U.S. officials warned them to back off a recent political smear campaign, but more should be done to expose and exploit their rifts.
Aug 13, 2019
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Landmine Hazards Likely to Long Outlast Yemen War
Clearance efforts can have an outsize impact, especially if supported by improvements in local governance.
Jul 26, 2019
◆
  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
Popular Mobilization Force Reform in Iraq: Reintegration or Consolidation of Militia Power?
Recent decisions by the Iraqi PM to curtail militia influence may just swap one threat for another.
Jul 8, 2019
◆
  • Michael Knights
In-Depth Reports
Lebanon: Future Leadership of the State and the State Within
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war almost three decades ago, stipulated that the country’s president be Christian, the prime minister be Sunni, and the parliament speaker be Shia. Today, two of these figures—President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—are in their eighties, and both demonstrate sympathy for Hezbollah, the Shia militia and party that serves as a national power broker.
Jun 11, 2019
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Can Asaib Ahl al-Haq Join the Political Mainstream?
The Iraqi militia seeks to follow peers like the Sadrist movement and Badr Organization, but it must first back up its rhetoric with moderating actions.
Feb 14, 2019
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Frzand Sherko
Brief Analysis
The Shia Arabs of Khuzestan
Tribal identity supersedes religious affiliation in this community, helping explain why Tehran can expect further challenges from this southwestern province.
Sep 25, 2018
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Terrorist Attack in Iran a Concern for Saudis, Oil Markets
Iranian disruption of Saudi production could wreak havoc on global oil markets, and be challenging to counter absent clear fingerprints from Tehran.
Sep 24, 2018
◆
  • Simon Henderson

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