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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Articles & Testimony
A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb
Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
Sep 9, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
cyber security
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Cyber Attacks Against Ukraine Can Teach Israel
Israel must look to the war in Ukraine for insight into potential cyber attacks and security strategies ahead of the November legislative elections.
Sep 8, 2022
◆
  • Ophir Barel
U.S. Navy image of an Iranian vessel attempting to capture a U.S. naval drone - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Iranian Seizures Raise Questions About Unmanned Maritime Operations
More trouble may await U.S. vessels unless officials work resolutely to protect them and establish effective guidelines for their safe operation.
Sep 7, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
How Turkey Views Russian Naval Access to the Black Sea
Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.
Sep 2, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Erdogan and Putin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Consequences of Turkey’s Shifting Position on the Syrian Crisis
Although establishing ties between Turkey and the Syrian regime may seem like a smart move by Erdogan, the decision represents a betrayal of the Syrian people and its success is not guaranteed for the Turkish government.
Sep 2, 2022
◆
  • Salahuddin Hawa
An Iraqi member of a Shia PMF militia
Brief Analysis
Removing All Militias From Baghdad’s International Zone
Iran-backed PMF units shot first in the latest showdown, so they should hardly be the ones left in charge of security in the government center.
Aug 31, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
Sadrist protestors, Republic Palace, Baghdad, August 29, 2022
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Show Message Discipline During Sadrist Clashes
Centralized direction was evident as "resistance" outlets carried out their (apparently successful) public relations campaign to claim the moral high ground.
Aug 30, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks in a recorded interview released in Jan. 2019. Photo credit: Screenshot by Cole Bunzel via Twitter.
Articles & Testimony
Jawlani’s “State of the Union”
The Syrian jihadist leader’s growing efforts to garner legitimacy and build up local institutions can only go so far amid the group’s continued terrorist sympathies and minority repression.
Aug 29, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
U.S. Central Command graphic, Aug 15, 2022 drone attack on Al Tanf
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Role in the August 15 al-Tanf Attack
The Syria strike was launched from the militia's bastion in Iraq and used Iranian-provided KAS-04 explosive drones.
Aug 25, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021
Brief Analysis
Iran Garnering Internal Support for a Potential Nuclear Deal
Although it is still unclear if the Supreme Leader will approve the necessary compromises, regime officials are maximizing their room for maneuver by preparing the country either way—assuming the economy doesn’t force their hand.
Aug 22, 2022
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  • Omer Carmi
bin Laden and al Zawahiri
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Killing of al-Zawahiri: Repercussions for the Taliban
Following the drone strike against al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, many variables are up in the air that could significantly alter the stability of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan as well as the future of the al-Qaeda framework.
Aug 16, 2022
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  • Mohamed Mokhtar Qandil
Articles & Testimony
Contending with IRGC Plots
Why do Iranian officials keep ordering hits on U.S. soil in the middle of sensitive negotiations? Because they know they can get away with it.
Aug 16, 2022
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Taees
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Kataib Aimmat al-Baqi
A Diyala-based militia that offered its services to Nouri al-Maliki on a leaked audiotape from July 2022.
Aug 15, 2022
◆
  • May Riad
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv
Articles & Testimony
Israel and Gaza Keep Up Their Precarious Dance
What the latest round of fighting against PIJ—and not, conspicuously, Hamas—means, and why it will probably happen again.
Aug 9, 2022
◆
  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
UN Forces in Lebanon Losing Ground in a Fast-Deteriorating Security Situation
Despite the troubling trends and escalatory incidents described in the latest UN report, the Security Council seems intent on maintaining a failed policy instead of taking urgent action to curb the growing threat of war.
Aug 5, 2022
◆
  • Assaf Orion
SCF protests
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Khazali Isolated Over International Zone Protests
The militia leader is being constrained by other members of the Iran-dominated Shia Coordination Framework regarding how to respond to Sadrist protests.
Aug 3, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Screen capture of the FBI Most Wanted Terrorist poster for Ayman al-Zawahiri, updated following Zawahiri's killing in Afghanistan by American forces. Source: FBI
Brief Analysis
What Zawahiri’s Death Means for al-Qaeda and Its Branches
Despite the potent symbolic benefits of taking out the infamous terrorist ideologue, his death is unlikely to affect the organization’s daily operations, which are increasingly being driven by dangerous affiliates in Africa.
Aug 2, 2022
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..
Brief Analysis
Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations
Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.
Aug 1, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Ahrar al-Iraq 2
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq
This facade group is used to brand militia rocket and drone attacks on Turkish targets in Iraq.
Jul 29, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Eric Feely
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s War in Northern Iraq: By the Numbers
Ankara is fighting a lethal and largely hidden counterinsurgency against PKK elements across the border, but the conflict’s rising profile may carry high costs for both U.S. interests and Iraqi sovereignty.
Jul 28, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow of The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. He is a co-founder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
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