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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
Can Iran Restore Its Missile Mojo?
Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.
Dec 23, 2024
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Farzin Nadimi
An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Two “Axes” Converging in Iran
Iran’s Middle East “axis of resistance” and the Eurasian axis it shares with China, Russia, and North Korea are increasingly challenging the global and regional order, highlighting the need for more partnerships and a comprehensive counterstrategy with special efforts focusing on Tehran.
Dec 23, 2024
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Fall of Assad: Rejoice, Repel, Reach Out, Reload
Prompt military action is helping Israel counter the immediate security risks of Syria’s sudden upheaval, but additional efforts will be needed to seize the broader opportunities of this new era.
Dec 18, 2024
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Infographic showing trends in Houthi maritime attacks, 2023-24.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025
Two experts offer a detailed infographic and accompanying analysis to chart attack trends over the past year and forecast what’s in store for the Red Sea and surrounding waterways.
Dec 16, 2024
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  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
CMC head
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Militia-Led Communications Commission Clamps Down on Press Coverage of Security Issues
The CMC's latest restrictions on press freedoms indicate that Iran-backed groups fear they could be ousted from power much like Bashar al-Assad next door.
Dec 16, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Security forces the Iraqi-Syrian border, after it has been reopened for trade and travel, in Al Qaim, Iraq in 2019 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba Projects Paranoia Over Domestic Security
Nujaba's immediate allergic reaction to regime change in Syria is a bellwether of how vulnerable Coordination Framework militias feel as pro-Iran hierarchies come tumbling down.
Dec 16, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
HH
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hashem al-Haidari Calls for Preemptive Actions Against U.S. Embassy
One of Iran's most trusted lieutenants in the Iraqi militia scene is loudly rattling his saber against the U.S. presence in the Middle East.
Dec 16, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Map showing areas of control in post-Assad Syria.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Supporting the SDF in Post-Assad Syria
To preserve its only reliable and capable partner in the fight against the Islamic State, the United States must help the SDF deter HTS and fend off Turkey-backed militias.
Dec 13, 2024
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  • Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.
Dec 12, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Emergence of Two Distinct Jihadist Ways of War
Comparing the offensive that toppled Assad with the Islamic State's 2014 campaign in Iraq shows how HTS has innovated its approach by mixing old and new tactics.
Dec 12, 2024
◆
  • Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
Expanding C-SIPA to Britain Signals Continued Commitment to Integration
By adding Britain ahead of Trump’s inauguration, the parties hope to sustain the agreement’s vision of building an integrated defense structure and forming a network of trusted partners for economic and technological development.
Dec 9, 2024
◆
  • Elizabeth Dent
Members of the Israeli delegation at the Tripartite Conference in 2006 - source: Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Back to the Future in Lebanon? Ceasefire Lessons from 2006
The former head of Israel’s “tripartite” delegation reflects on the slow-rolling failures that followed the 2006 ceasefire—lessons that can help authorities overcome similar obstacles to the new agreement.
Dec 6, 2024
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Photo showing Syrian rebels outside Aleppo International Airport.
Video
Brief Analysis
The (Next) Battle for Northwest Syria: U.S. Policy Implications
The director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force joins three Washington Institute experts to discuss the stunning rebel advances in the west.
Dec 6, 2024
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Mouaz Moustafa
An Israeli border guard secures the gate at a crossing with Lebanon in 2007 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Lebanon Ceasefire: Managing Israeli Public Expectations and U.S. Coordination
In addition to assuaging public fears about the agreement, officials will need to reach a shared understanding with Washington about how to enforce its terms and respond to Hezbollah violations.
Dec 5, 2024
◆
  • David Makovsky
A soldier from Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service participates in a joint training exercise with U.S. colleagues - source: U.S. Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
How Washington Can Salvage Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service
CTS is the most successful U.S. partner force in Iraq, which is why Iran-backed terrorist groups are trying to penetrate and corrupt it.
Dec 3, 2024
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  • Michael Knights
A rebel fighter belonging to the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gestures while riding a vehicle near Aleppo in November 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Patient Efforts Behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Success in Aleppo
The former jihadist affiliate has changed tremendously in the past few years, and understanding this new reality is crucial to identifying how its current offensive might unfold.
Dec 3, 2024
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Muqawama under threat
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Downscaling Their Anti-Israel Actions
Iran-backed groups were already powering down for weeks before Israel delivered a stark warning on November 18, after which attacks dropped off almost entirely.
Nov 26, 2024
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Faces shown on Nov 6 IRI claim video of drone strike on Jordan Valley
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia List of U.S. “Greatest Hits” Gives Insight Into Attack Cell Structure
A poster of thirty-six militia “martyrs” provides useful data about who was killed by U.S. forces at specific times and places.
Nov 26, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Book cover with Iranian missiles, including Shahab-3
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
Nov 25, 2024
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran
Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.
Nov 21, 2024
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • James E. Shepard

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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