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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Esmail Qaani with a Fatimiyoun soldier in Syria
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Explaining Apparent Muqawama De-Escalation Since January 28
Since three Americans were killed, the self-styled "resistance" has been almost inactive except for a spate of fake, foiled, and disavowed attacks, pointing to an order from Iran to calm things down.
Feb 7, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Abu Baqr al-Saedi's car, Feb 7, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Abu Baqr al-Saeedi: Kataib Hezbollah Terrorist, Serving PMF Official
The Kataib Hezbollah leader killed on February 7 in Baghdad was (until now) a living nexus of Kataib Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the facade group Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq.
Feb 7, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
A Houthi fighter aboard the seized cargo vessel Galaxy Leader - source: Houthi media via Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Countering the Houthi Threat to Shipping: Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Three experts address the thorny strategic questions arising from attacks on global shipping by the Yemen-based group.
Feb 6, 2024
◆
  • Simon Henderson
  • Michael Knights
  • Noam Raydan
Yemen's Houthis in formation.
Articles & Testimony
How Washington Emboldened the Houthis
Greater decisiveness would have shortened the conflict, lessened the toll on global maritime trade, and reassured U.S. partners in the region and beyond.
Feb 6, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Grant Rumley
Liwa al-Tafuf logo
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa al-Tafuf (13th PMF Brigade)
The brigade belongs to the state-funded Popular Mobilization Forces and is a core member of Kataib Hezbollah’s cluster of militias that facilitate anti-U.S. attacks in Iraq’s Anbar province, eastern Syria, and Jordan.
Feb 3, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Militant Empire in the Middle East
The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.
Feb 2, 2024
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Sabreen claims the reports of drones attack on Harir lies
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
To Resist or Not to Resist: That Is the Muqawama’s Question
After Kataib Hezbollah announced it was suspending attacks on U.S. forces, the self-styled “resistance” became a hot mess of recriminations.
Feb 2, 2024
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
A masked Hamas fighter brandishes a rifle in Gaza - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Only Way to Stop Hamas Is to Stop Iran from Rebuilding It
Tehran may simply revive the group or replace it with another terrorist proxy, so Washington and its partners will need to disrupt the flow of Iranian arms and informal financial support to extremist elements in the West Bank and Gaza.
Jan 31, 2024
◆
  • Michael Singh
  • Matthew Levitt
KH
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Tries to Forestall U.S. Strikes
Abu Hussein has unveiled a dramatic gambit to sidestep Washington's threatened response to the killing of three U.S. soldiers.
Jan 30, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Satellite view of the U.S. military outpost known as Tower 22, in Rukban, Rwaished District, Jordan October 12, 2023 in this handout image. Source - Planet Labs PBC/via Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Deadly Attack on US Troops in Jordan Marks Major Escalation
Biden now has a hard choice to make: push Israel into a Gaza ceasefire or risk sustained Iran-backed escalation in the region.
Jan 29, 2024
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Nawaf al-Bashir (right)
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Hashemite Tribes Regiment
With support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, this regiment aims to create a more cohesive force capable of opposing the U.S.-backed SDF on the eastern banks of Syria's Euphrates River.
Jan 26, 2024
◆
  • Kyle Robertson
  • Abdullah Hayek
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Suez Canal from the bottom of the Peace Bridge
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Cairo: Stuck between Securing the Red Sea and Avoiding a Perception of Support for Israel
Despite economic losses, Egypt is still hesitant to participate in any direct military operations to deter the Houthis. Cairo believes that it is more appropriate to work towards ending the military operations in the Gaza Strip and launching a political process, rather than opening a new front to expand the conflict in the Middle East.
Jan 26, 2024
◆
  • Mohamed Maher
  • Mohamed Farid
Destruction from the Israeli strike on Hamas targets at the Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
How Hamas Manipulates Gaza Fatality Numbers:
Examining the Male Undercount and Other Problems
International media and NGOs have repeated the group's figures without caveats, giving credence to suspicions of Israeli misconduct and fueling accusations of war crimes and even genocide.
Jan 25, 2024
◆
  • Gabriel Epstein
Al-Aqrab
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Can Iraq's Militias Imitate Houthi Successes at Sea?
The senior terrorist figure Abu Ala al-Walai is seemingly answering Iran's call for a maritime blockade on Israel, but is this a real threat or just a desperate effort to claim strategic influence before the Gaza war ends?
Jan 24, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Deployed in Yemen
Tehran has previously been able to conduct a “hidden-hand operation” via the Houthis at a very low cost, but that price may now be set to rise if allied counter-strikes continue.
Jan 15, 2024
◆
  • Jay Solomon
Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf
Articles & Testimony
Will the U.S.-British Strikes Stop the Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping?
The effectiveness of the joint operation is not year clear, but either way it almost certainly wasn’t the concluding episode in Iran’s long-running game of Gulf proxy warfare.
Jan 12, 2024
◆
  • Simon Henderson
A Muhandis and Soleimani site in Baghdad
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Badr and Asaib Crack the Whip on Kataib al-Imam Ali in Basra
The group stepped on Badr's toes during a recent commemoration ceremony, giving a window into the local balance of power between Iran-backed militias.
Jan 11, 2024
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  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Photo of a blast wall with a drone mural at al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah Reveals Plans for Expanded Regional Attacks
The militia's Abu Hussein wing continues to throw shade at other "resistance" groups and is now threatening U.S. bases in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and even Saudi Arabia.
Jan 11, 2024
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Unarmed UN staff from the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization stand near a Blue Line marker on the Israel-Lebanon borner - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Red-Hot Blue Line
As the Israel-Lebanon frontier teeters on the brink, Washington and its partners need to urgently exhaust all diplomatic options to prevent war—but without resorting to false remedies or giving Beirut and the LAF a pass for their worsening collusion.
Jan 11, 2024
◆
  • Assaf Orion
A man carries Iranian and Palestinian flags at a pro-Hamas rally in Tehran in October 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The “Axis of Resistance” Strategy in the Israel-Hamas War
Tehran has faced few consequences for the wartime actions of its proxies, so the United States and its allies should step up their sanctions and gray-zone operations against the regime.
Jan 9, 2024
◆
  • Ido Levy

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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