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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier Laax (IMO 9512355), which was attacked in the southern Red Sea on May 28, 2024. photo obtained via the X/Twitter account of French forces stationed in the UAE and deployed in the Indian Ocean, https://x.com/FFEAU_ALINDIEN/status/1795837694960189920.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
May 31, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
Pursuing a Stable Peace in Yemen that Preserves U.S. Interests
The U.S. ambassador to Yemen joins an expert conflict practitioner to discuss Washington’s policy options for resolving the civil war.
May 31, 2024
◆
  • Nadwa Al-Dawsari
  • Steven Fagin
KFC Baghdad 2
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Raba Allah Undertakes Unclaimed Attacks on U.S. Brands
The vigilante group appears to have targeted American-branded businesses in Baghdad while taking pains not to claim the attacks, which embarrassed the Iraqi government.
May 30, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Abu Fadak, Fayyadh
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The PMF Represents Iraq at the Axis of Resistance Conference in Tehran
Iraqi militias were nowhere to be seen at the Tehran conference, but an IRGC outlet described the PMF as appearing alongside Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other U.S.-designated terrorist groups.
May 24, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
U.S. and Saudi air force officers greet one another during a joint exercise - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Security Cooperation in a Changed Region: How to Advance the U.S.-GCC Defense Working Groups
From aligning weapons acquisition strategies and improving intelligence sharing to getting the diplomatic framing right, U.S. officials can do more to advance regional air defense and maritime security through this week’s working groups and beyond.
May 21, 2024
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Nasrallah Ashura speech
Brief Analysis
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
May 16, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
A Houthi propaganda image published by the group's al-Masirah TV network.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats
Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.
May 16, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
IRI drone
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Anti-Israel Surge by Iraqi Militants: Metrics and Trends
Although relatively few drones or missiles seem to make it to Israel, launches are steadily increasing, potentially inviting overt retaliation inside Iraq.
May 15, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
President Ronald Reagan meets with Senator Joe Biden at the White House in 1987 - source: Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Articles & Testimony
On Israel, Biden Is No Reagan
Skewed historical comparisons do not change the fact that the president’s arms restrictions will put Israel in greater danger.
May 10, 2024
◆
  • Michael Singh
Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv
Brief Analysis
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?
Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.
May 6, 2024
◆
  • Andrew G. Clemmensen
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Take-off of claimed Saraya al-Ashtar April 27, 2024 drone attack on Israel
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Is Kataib Hezbollah Behind Saraya al-Ashtar's Claimed Attack on Israel?
The connection between exiled Bahraini terrorists and Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah is demonstrably strong and probably explains the strange incident.
May 4, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Amir al-Kaabi
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Islamic Resistance in Iraq 200-day attack metrics, April 25, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq Collates a 200-Day Attack Scoreboard
The infographic deviates from recorded IRI claims in important ways, seemingly exaggerating strikes on Israel while downplaying strikes on Syria and Jordan.
May 3, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Syrian Arab tribal mitiias supported by Iran, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Understanding the IRGC's Past, Present, and Future Use of Syrian Tribal Militias
Iran's development of Arab tribal militias in eastern Syria will likely accelerate again, based on the model established in Aleppo and backed by new IRGC-funded social, economic, and administrative "wings."
Apr 30, 2024
◆
  • Abdullah Hayek
◆ Militia Spotlight
Yemen's Houthis in formation.
Articles & Testimony
Assessing the Houthi War Effort Since October 2023
An in-depth look at the movement’s current capabilities, military situation inside Yemen, and strategic intentions amid the Gaza war and beyond.
April 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
LGBT
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Coordination Framework Militias Pass New Anti-LGBTQ Legislation
Although they avoided embarrassing Prime Minister Sudani during his recent Washington visit, they passed abhorrent new legislation as soon as he was back home.
Apr 29, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Amir al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
The car carrier Hyperion Ray (IMO 9690559) was struck near Fujairah, UAE, in April 2021. The ship was owned by Israel-based Ray Shipping Ltd when it was attacked. Photo credit: Rick Voice via MarineTraffic.com.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Pay Attention to Ship Seizures, Not Threats to Close Strait of Hormuz
Low-key actions like seizures can increase regional and global concerns and increase Iran's leverage.
Apr 29, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran
Experience shows that a balanced strategy blending deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment can more effectively contain Iran.
Apr 26, 2024
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Articles & Testimony
Will Israel Temper Its War on Iran’s Regional Proxies?
Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and other militias in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq have yielded visible benefits at times, but future operations may elicit a direct Iranian response.
Apr 24, 2024
◆
  • David Schenker
Iran Air passenger plane undergoing maintenance
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Better Plan for Sanctioning Iranian Airlines
Targeting Iran Air’s flights to Europe would help, but the regime’s illicit activities on the continent may simply be taken over by the IRGC-linked carrier Mahan Air unless further designations are issued.
Apr 23, 2024
◆
  • Babak Taghvaee
Kharab al-Jir
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Hit Two U.S. Sites in Iraq and Syria
Iran-backed groups have adopted tight message discipline so far, not claiming either of the attacks in order to avoid U.S. retaliation while simultaneously warning Prime Minister Sudani to keep pushing for U.S. withdrawal.
Apr 22, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
  • Alex Almeida
◆ Militia Spotlight

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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