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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Iran's navy commander speaks in front of a map
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Atlantic Voyage: Implications of Naval Deployments to Venezuela or Syria
The maiden voyage may just be a token political and training mission to boost morale—or the first step in sending long-range missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and other materiel to Tehran’s allies in the Caribbean or Mediterranean.
Jun 15, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Figure 1: Qais al-Khazali’s interview with iNEWS TV, June 1, 2021
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Qais al-Khazali's Show of Independence
The militia leader is positioning himself as Iran's equal and close partner, aspiring to comparisons with Hassan Nasrallah and Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.
Jun 14, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
The Mediterranean Should Be on Joe Biden’s Mind When He Meets Putin
Despite its consistent rhetoric toward Moscow, the administration has not yet demonstrated its strategic understanding that ceding too much operating space to Russia will hurt U.S. efforts to confront China.
Jun 14, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Russia Signals Biden with Attack on Syrian Jihadist Group
Washington is no ally of HTS, but it should realize that Russian strikes against the group are aimed squarely at foiling U.S. objectives in Geneva, including the effort to maintain cross-border aid.
Jun 11, 2021
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Iraq's Federal Supreme Court building
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Judiciary Weak Link
Regardless of the executive branch’s willingness to confront militia abuses, true rule of law cannot take hold unless judges are protected from intimidation and corruption.
Jun 10, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Preserving the Lebanese Armed Forces Amid State Decline
Although continued pressure on the country’s political elites is necessary, the U.S. government needs to find more immediate ways of helping soldiers and citizens by making creative use of State, Defense, and congressional authorities.
Jun 9, 2021
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Grant Rumley
Middle East PolicyCast 78 Cover
Audio
Brief Analysis
Podcast: A Military and Political Assessment of the Gaza Conflict
In this episode of the Middle East PolicyCast podcast, Grant Rumley & Neri Zilber share their assessments of the factors that sparked and escalated the May 2021 Gaza conflict and share advice for policymakers who seek to prevent the renewal of major violence between Hamas and Israel.
Jun 7, 2021
◆
  • Grant Rumley
  • Neri Zilber
◆ Middle East PolicyCast
Qais in military attire
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Qais al-Khazali Doubles Down on His Muqawama Membership
The militia leader has not hesitated to provide court-quality evidence that he and his movement Asaib Ahl al-Haq are actively involved in attacks on U.S. forces.
Jun 7, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
The Evolution of Iran’s Qods Force Since 1979
By absorbing rival organizations and favoring commanders who lack connections to other regime power centers, the IRGC has used the Qods Force to steadily centralize and monopolize control over the country’s foreign operations.
Jun 3, 2021
◆
  • Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Iran Nuclear Watchdog Report Suggests Impact of Suspected Israeli Sabotage
News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.
Jun 1, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Stars: cracked earth climate change, U.S. military insignia, tankers, drone
In-Depth Reports
Beyond Forever Wars and Great Power Competition:
Rethinking the U.S. Military Role in the Middle East
To meet future security challenges, the United States will need to reassess how it deters adversaries and conducts security force assistance in the region, while becoming more proficient in gray zone operations and information activities. Addressing cultural factors and trends such as climate change will require solutions outside the traditional national security toolkit.
Jun 1, 2021
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
◆ Transition 2021
Etejah
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Threats Against Iraq's Government Aired on al-Etejah TV
Kataib Hezbollah's television outlet is still airing false claims about the release of Qasim Muslih, as well as coup threats that draw comparisons to Yemen's Houthi takeover.
Jun 1, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
How Iran Fuels Hamas Terrorism
After playing a key role in the group’s military development for years and navigating deep ideological rifts, Tehran has renewed its extensive sponsorship in ways that contributed directly to the recent bloodshed in Gaza.
Jun 1, 2021
◆
  • Ido Levy
New York Times front page depicting Palestinian casualties of the 2021 Gaza conflict
Articles & Testimony
What’s Wrong with the NY Times’ Report on Children’s Deaths? So Much.
By failing to provide essential information on sourcing, the reporting environment, the victims’ proximity to legitimate military targets, their family connections with combatants, and other matters, the article presents a skewed, sensationalist image of the Gaza conflict.
May 31, 2021
◆
  • Robert Satloff
QM affair
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Fake News Surrounding Qasim Muslih’s Arrest (Part 2): Release Claims
Militias made a concerted effort to create the false impression that their colleague had been released immediately, and the claim was soon echoed by major global media outlets.
May 28, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
QM affair
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Fake News Surrounding Qasim Muslih’s Arrest (Part 1): International Zone Claims
The first wave of post-arrest deception operations tried to give the false impression that militias controlled the Baghdad zone containing the prime minister's residence, the U.S. embassy, and other sensitive sites.
May 28, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
  • Alex Almeida
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
An Iraqi member of a Shia PMF militia
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Try, and Fail, to Intimidate the Government
Baghdad effectively enforced the rule of law by detaining a senior militia figure, though it still needs to arrest other murder suspects and show the public that October’s election will be safe.
May 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv
Brief Analysis
A Military Assessment of the Israel-Hamas Conflict
Both sides employed new methods in this round, and while Israel’s were more effective in military terms, the true measure of success will depend on how quickly Hamas can rebuild its warfighting capabilities and exploit any political gains.
May 25, 2021
◆
  • Grant Rumley
  • Neri Zilber
Muqawama Tansiqiya
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
When the Tansiqiya Speaks in AAH's Absence
The May 20 Gaza protest in Baghdad saw the Tansiqiya speak in the notable absence of any Asaib Ahl al-Haq members, and the event was conspicuously ignored by AAH channels.
May 24, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Anti US
Brief Analysis
The Tansiqiya Signals Escalation Versus the United States
The Iraqi militia coordination committee is laying out its political and legal arguments for the removal of U.S. forces.
May 24, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight

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