Iran

No sanctions relief should be granted without nuclear concessions, and a “less for less” deal may be the best way of reaching a viable compromise in the near term.

For two decades and running, diplomatic efforts have noticeably omitted the regional states most directly in the line of Tehran’s fire, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.

Successful diplomacy could enhance Arab normalization with Israel and boost U.S. efforts to counter Iran, but it is unclear if Riyadh wants to bargain now or wait for Joe Biden.

The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.

Joe Biden's victory in America may herald a measure of de-escalation with Iran, but the Supreme Leader is unlikely to be moved. Ayatollah Khamenei does not really distinguish between Democratic and Republican intentions—after all, he agreed to a nuclear deal with the Obama administration only to see President Trump tear

Headlines about increased stockpiles of enriched uranium are only half the story.

Ayatollah Khamenei is wholly focused on preserving the political system he has so painstakingly built, but trends suggest a shaky Iranian future regardless of who wins the U.S. election.

The regime senses a major win in the forthcoming move, perceiving an isolated and weakened United States and opportunities for escalation on many fronts.