Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.

The World Prepares for Gaza War Escalation

The players have climbed another rung on the escalatory ladder in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, exacerbating worries about a wider regional conflict and more serious economic effects.

Jan 7, 2024

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David Schenker

Iranian military leaders inspect drones.

Brief Analysis

Terrorist Bombings in Iran: Implications and Potential Responses

Although an Islamic State branch claimed the deadly blasts near a restive border zone, Tehran was quick to blame Israel and the United States, promising “severe retaliation” akin to what followed Qasem Soleimani’s death in 2020.

Jan 5, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi

Quds-2 cruise missile in Babil, Jan 3. 2024

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iranian-Made Quds-2 Cruise Missile Photographed in Iraq

Recently used in Houthi attacks from Yemen, this missile family could give Iraqi militias the capacity to target sites in Israel if they choose to escalate their campaign of solidarity with Hamas.

Jan 5, 2024

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Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Who Are Nujaba and Why Did the U.S. Just Strike Them?

The group's cadres are the most reckless of Iran's terrorist proxies in Iraq and have been the proximate cause of almost all recent U.S. strikes.

Jan 4, 2024

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran Increases Output of Near Bomb-Grade Nuclear Material

The IAEA’s new uranium revelations are amplifying concerns about a potential multifront war between Israel and Iran.

Dec 27, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Iraq’s New Regime Change: How Tehran-Backed Terrorist Organizations and Militias Captured the Iraqi State

A comprehensive study of the various institutional, financial, and military levers that have enabled Iran’s “resistance” camp to take over another country even under the international community’s watchful eye.

Dec 2023

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

Brief Analysis

Key Takeaways from the Latest Country Reports on Terrorism

In its annual rundown of counterterrorism challenges and achievements, the State Department focused on jihadist exploitation of undergoverned spaces, Iran’s continued sponsorship of regional terrorist groups, and the threats posed by violent extremism.

Dec 20, 2023

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Camille Jablonski
Delaney Soliday
Ilana Winter

Houthi drone aircraft on display in Yemen - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Under Fire in the Bab al-Mandab: Houthi Military Capabilities and U.S. Response Options

The group is using a wide range of weapons and tactics to escalate its disruption of regional maritime security, establishing selective sea denial against Israeli vessels seeking passage through the strait and threatening U.S. warships that show up to protect them.

Dec 8, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Fikra Forum

Women’s Dress in Iran: From the Islamic Sitr to the Political Hijab

The Islamic Republic’s position that it is merely carrying out a religious mandate is disingenuous, as is clear from Khomeini’s own religious writings and from the history of the hijab in Iran. Whereas the concept of sitr remains separated from politics in Iran, the hijab is now unequivocally a political concept.

Dec 7, 2023

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Mushtaq Abd Munaf

Brief Analysis

Containing the Houthis in Yemen: Issues and Options for the Policy Review

During the Gaza war, Houthi militia forces have emerged as the most risk-acceptant member of Iran's "axis of resistance" and a demonstrated menace to international freedom of navigation.

Dec 5, 2023

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings

From removing the speaker of parliament to overturning election results, the court has repeatedly overstepped its role to a degree that warrants more international pressure.

Dec 4, 2023

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Selin Uysal

Articles & Testimony

Iran-Backed Attacks on Ships in the Red Sea Underscore a U.S. Dilemma

Given the lack of a decisive U.S. response, further clashes will likely arise in strategically crucial waterways whenever Tehran sees fit to nudge the Houthis.

Dec 4, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Ansar Allah al-Awfiya (19th PMF Brigade)

One of the top Iraqi proxies for Iran's IRGC-Qods Force, this Sadrist breakaway faction has long garrisoned the Syrian border and killed Iraqi protesters to demonstrate its loyalty.

Nov 27, 2023

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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh greets Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran in June 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Hamas-Iran Relationship

As details emerge of potential direct links to the attack on Israel, one thing is clear: Hamas would not have been able to plan and conduct such an operation without years of Iranian training, Iranian weapons, and hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian funding.

Nov 2023

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Matthew Levitt

Photo of an October 2023 Iraqi demonstration with footprints covering the Israeli and American flags.

Articles & Testimony

Iraq’s Delicate Balancing Act With Iran and the U.S.

Despite reassuring U.S. officials during recent meetings, it is unclear whether Prime Minister Sudani can indefinitely placate an angry public or prevent Tehran’s militia proxies from further escalating the situation.

Nov 19, 2023

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Bilal Wahab

Photo of a blast wall with a drone mural at al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.

Video

Brief Analysis

Iranian Escalation in Iraq and Syria: Implications and U.S. Options

Four experts discuss what Washington can do about the latest spike in militia attacks against U.S. bases and local partners—even as they try to sustain the counterterrorism mission against the Islamic State.

Nov 17, 2023

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Michael Knights
Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Devorah Margolin
Andrew J. Tabler

In Iranian Khordad-15 air-defense missile launcher - source: Wikimedia Commons

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran Potentially Expanding Its Air Defense Axis in Lebanon and Syria

Tehran is seemingly redoubling its efforts to equip Hezbollah and other regional allies with advanced air defense systems, which could affect Israeli and U.S. calculations in the Gaza war and beyond.

Nov 15, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah and the Gaza Crisis (Part 2): Israel's Incursion, Khamenei-Nasrallah Speeches, and Blinken's Visit

Hossein Moanes and Abu Fadak have carefully calibrated their threats, showing a multifaceted yet tightly controlled Kataib Hezbollah response.

Nov 7, 2023

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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Potential Escalation in Iraq (Part 2): Asaib and Nujaba

Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and their facade group partners may soon step up their attacks amid the Hamas-Israel war, albeit within limits set by Iran.

Nov 1, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Potential Escalation in Iraq (Part 1): Khamenei and Badr

Iraqi "resistance" elements are becoming more bellicose in their rhetoric against the American presence, signaling a new level of escalation against U.S. troops as part of their efforts to support Hamas in the Gaza war.

Nov 1, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Ameer al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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