Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

national Security Advisor Jake Sullivan addresses the Institute's 2023 Soref Symposium

Keynote Address by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

Watch video or read a transcript of a new Biden administration speech on U.S. policy in the Middle East, delivered at The Washington Institute’s 2023 Soref Symposium.

May 4, 2023

◆

Jake Sullivan

◆ 2023 Soref Symposium

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Political Rights and Civil Liberties in the Middle East: Trends in Freedom House Data Since 2010

The organization’s latest report showed persistent backsliding last year and since the Arab Spring, along with dramatic drops in a handful of countries and warnings of further drops next year.

Apr 27, 2023

◆

Camille Jablonski

Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..

Video

Brief Analysis

Iran's Military Drone Program: Security Implications and Policy Responses

A former CENTCOM chief joins two arms experts to discuss the capabilities of Iran’s drones, the gaps in current efforts to curb their proliferation, and the pressing need for a regional air defense architecture that can counter them.

Apr 24, 2023

◆

Kenneth McKenzie Jr.
Damien Spleeters
Valerie Lincy

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Pressure on Azerbaijan: Two Birds with One Stone

Aware of Azerbaijan's growing economic influence and strength, Iran is taking measures to ensure the tensions remain in its favor.

Apr 21, 2023

◆

Arash Aalaei

Articles & Testimony

What the Russia-Iran Arms Deals Mean for the Middle East

In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.

Apr 19, 2023

◆

Grant Rumley

The guided missile submarine USS Florida - source: Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

U.S. Deploys Cruise Missile Submarine to Strengthen Deterrence Against Iran

Amid rising tensions with Tehran and its proxies, the United States is sending a message by openly deploying one of its few guided missile submarines to the region.

Apr 14, 2023

◆

Farzin Nadimi

Iranian military officers, including Major General Bagheri, tour an underground air base - source: Iranian government

Articles & Testimony

Iranian Military Developments and Trends

Iran’s future military activities will likely be marked by greater continuity than change, but Supreme Leader Khamenei’s succession could presage more risk-acceptant behavior and a reconsideration of its nuclear hedging strategy.

Apr 13, 2023

◆

Michael Eisenstadt

Photo of Israelis in Tel Aviv protesting proposed judiciary changes, February 2023.

Brief Analysis

Regional Reactions to Israel’s Protests

Many Middle Eastern outlets have used the crisis to reinforce their inflammatory rhetoric, but some have provided nuanced analysis through the lenses of democratic principles and Arab-Israel peace.

Apr 12, 2023

◆

Frances McDonough

Brief Analysis

Iran-Israel Clashes in Syria Could Spill Into the Gulf

As in past incidents where IRGC officers were killed, U.S. naval forces should watch closely for any Iranian attempt to retaliate against Israel by attacking one of its commercial vessels in nearby waters.

Apr 4, 2023

◆

Farzin Nadimi

An Azeri woman with an Azerbaijan flag in the Nogorno-Karaback region of Armenia - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Tensions with Azerbaijan Point to Broader Shifts in the South Caucasus

Amid flare-ups in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iran and Russia are keeping a watchful eye on developments in the South Caucasus, from Israel’s warming relations with Baku to potentially shifting control over regional transport corridors.

Mar 31, 2023

◆

Anna Borshchevskaya
Andrew J. Tabler

Brief Analysis

Inside Iran’s Regime (Part 3): IRGC Economic Frustrations

Top commanders have purportedly raised a slew of concerns with the Supreme Leader, from funding shortfalls to corruption among regime elites.

Mar 30, 2023

◆

Henry Rome

Clerics gather in a bi-annual meeting of Iran's Assembly of Experts - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Inside Iran’s Regime (Part 2): The Clerical Crisis

In a climate where many clerics are unhappy about their situation and some are losing faith in the Islamic Republic, the purported minutes of a recent regime meeting show how the problem may evolve as domestic unrest continues.

Mar 29, 2023

◆

Mehdi Khalaji

Wang Yi, director of China's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Minister of State and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban shake hands in Beijing in March 2023 - source: Reuters

Video

Articles & Testimony

What Does the Saudi-Iran Deal Mean for the Middle East?

In a series of articles, op-eds, and media appearances, Washington Institute experts discuss what the China-brokered agreement between Tehran and Riyadh means for Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

Mar 29, 2023

◆

Anna Brown

Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.

Articles & Testimony

‘No Deal, No Crisis’ Is No Plan for Iran

The West is in the middle of a steadily escalating nuclear crisis, even if policymakers are reluctant to admit it.

Mar 29, 2023

◆

Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

A page from a supposedly leaked Iranian document

Brief Analysis

Inside Iran’s Regime (Part 1): Growing Fissures and Poor Morale in the IRGC?

A recently leaked document—if genuine—may indicate substantial internal skepticism toward the regime’s handling of the current domestic crisis, and perhaps even pressure for limited reforms.

Mar 28, 2023

◆

Patrick Clawson

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Attempts to Restore Optimism and Normality in Nowruz Speeches

Despite facing unprecedented protests and other deep challenges, the Supreme Leader delivered upbeat New Year’s messages and argued that simply controlling runaway inflation would solve most of Iran’s ills.

Mar 23, 2023

◆

Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Orbital Fluctuations Among the Iran-Supported Militias in Iraq

Astronomical models provide a surprisingly helpful illustration of how Iran-backed armed groups wield power in the MENA region.

Mar 22, 2023

◆

Michael Knights

Muhandis company launch event leadership attendeees

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Muhandis Company: Iraq’s Khatam al-Anbia

Mar 21, 2023

◆

Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Remaking Iraq: How Iranian-Backed Militias Captured the Country

The slow-rolling regime change focused on capturing U.S.-supported institutions and turning them against U.S. interests, highlighting the threat that motivated, well-funded groups pose to developing democracies.

Mar 20, 2023

◆

Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

The Saudi-Iran Deal Reflects a New Global Reality

Leaders in the Middle East feel more threatened by the competition between China and the United States than by the individual powers themselves, so Washington needs to adapt accordingly.

Mar 16, 2023

◆

Michael Singh

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

Never miss a breaking event on U.S. policy interests in the Middle East. Customize your subscription to our expert analysis, op-eds, live events, and special reports.