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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Test - The supreme Leader
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Uses Iraq War Anniversary to Reinforce Iranian Steadfastness
Rather than explicitly addressing Washington’s reactivation of sanctions, the Supreme Leader sought to convince domestic listeners that Iran can ‘resist’ external pressures and the latest COVID-19 wave on its own.
Sep 22, 2020
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction
The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its majority Shia population and its Sunni community.
Sep 11, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Russian-Iranian Tensions in Deir al-Zour
To prevent the two rivals from expanding their influence in east Syria, the coalition needs to exploit their simmering disunity, empower its partners on the ground, and establish stronger ties with select tribal and community leaders.
Sep 4, 2020
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Ali Alleile
Brief Analysis
Iran Flaunts New Missile and Jet Engine Technology
Although many of the recently unveiled systems are foreign copies or have unproven capabilities, they show a substantial indigenous development capacity that will only accelerate once the UN ban on weapons sales is lifted—even if past sanctions snap back into action.
Aug 28, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The IRGC Lifts Off: Implications of Iran's Satellite Launch
In April 2020, the IRGC launched its first domestically made satellite, the Nour-1, into orbit. The launch showed the risks of lifting arms restrictions on Iran, a move supported by potential weapons trade partners Russia and China but vehemently opposed by the United States. Ending the embargo could facilitate Tehran’s
Aug 27, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Cautious Response to Washington’s Snapback Threat
Instead of playing hardball, the entire regime is seemingly embracing the more prudent approach of disregarding the U.S. threat and exploiting the resultant diplomatic clash for political gains.
Aug 21, 2020
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  • Omer Carmi
Articles & Testimony
Conflict with Small Powers Derails U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case for Strategic Discipline
Although containing or deterring minor powers can help shape the behavior of great powers, conflicts with these smaller foes have proliferated in the twenty-first century, tying down resources and attention needed elsewhere.
Aug 12, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran Applies Maximum Power to Annual IRGC Naval Exercise
Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.
Aug 10, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Video
Brief Analysis
Mapping Hezbollah's Worldwide Activities
Three current and former U.S. officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Hezbollah and its enablers.
Aug 5, 2020
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  • Matthew Levitt
  • Kash Patel
  • Juan Zarate
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran Respond to Foreign Sabotage?
Given the dilemmas involved in retaliating for recent acts of sabotage and the death of Qasem Soleimani, Iran will likely defer any substantial military action against U.S. targets until shortly before or after the November election.
Aug 4, 2020
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran-South Korea Humanitarian Trade Requires U.S. Assurances
Tehran is pressing Seoul regarding the billions in Iranian oil revenues held by South Korean banks, creating an opportunity to expand the U.S. humanitarian trade mechanism.
Jul 28, 2020
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  • Katherine Bauer
  • Kevin Mathieson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations
Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.
Jul 24, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Podcast: Deterring Iran in the 'Gray Zone'
For forty years, Iran has operated in the gray zone between war and peace. Military analyst Michael Eisenstadt explains an approach that could deter Iran while reducing risk of escalation.
Jul 23, 2020
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Iranian rockets and flag
Brief Analysis
If the Arms Ban Ends: Implications for Iran’s Military Capabilities
Discussions about lifting the ban tend to focus on major weapons systems Tehran might acquire abroad, yet the most important long-term impact may be on its ability to upgrade existing capabilities and strengthen domestic arms production.
Jul 23, 2020
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
When China Met Iran
A growing partnership between America’s main Middle East adversary and Asia’s rising superpower bears careful watching in Washington.
Jul 21, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Observations on the Islamic State in Iran
The institutionalization of revolutionary Islamism in Iranian governance and law means there is almost no chance the current regime will pursue reform of its own volition.
Jul 17, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Under Stress
As Riyadh aims to revamp the kingdom’s place in the international community, its near-term approach to Iran and Israel will have much to say about the Gulf neighborhood’s future trajectory.
Jul 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Will Iran ‘Go Nuclear’ Over Its Latest Nuke Site Setback?
Even if the regime’s prospects of obtaining enough high-enriched uranium for a weapon have been greatly delayed, the potential repercussions do not end there.
Jul 6, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Sunset of the Iran Arms Embargo: The Narrow Path to a Policy Compromise
Delinking the embargo from the nuclear deal could offer the best hope of reducing tensions within the P5+1 while also limiting Iran’s access to sophisticated weaponry.
Jun 29, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Repeating Its Past Errors with the IAEA
To prevent the agency from issuing a noncompliance resolution, Tehran has been threatening to impede inspections, but this approach could easily backfire on the regime.
Jun 18, 2020
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  • Omer Carmi

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