Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Militia with 23mm driving west outside IZ, May 26, 2021

Making Sense of Militia Attacks in Iraq and Syria in Early 2022

The process of assuaging the militia support base was carefully stage-managed in the first week of the new year, with Iran and Nujaba setting the ground rules.

Jan 6, 2022

◆

Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Law Enforcement Shuffle Reflects Concern About Protests

The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are asserting more control over the task of monitoring and managing protest movements, creating yet another intelligence agency in the process.

Jan 5, 2022

◆

Amir Toumaj

Articles & Testimony

Solving Syria’s Crisis Starts with Sanctioning Iranian Oil

Instead of quietly greenlighting the Assad regime’s diplomatic rehabilitation, U.S. officials should escalate economic pressure on its Iranian enablers to regain leverage at the negotiating table.

Jan 3, 2022

◆

Andrew J. Tabler
Matthew Zweig

Brief Analysis

IRGC Conducts “Hybrid” Military Drills as Nuclear Talks Teeter

The timing of the exercise and the types of systems and tactics on display reveal much about Iran’s likely response to any uptick in foreign pressure.

Dec 22, 2021

◆

Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Fighter Aircraft Could Give Iran a Nuclear Delivery Option

Newly disclosed interviews indicate that a key Pakistani source of Iran’s nuclear know-how also figured out how to equip F-16s with nukes.

Dec 20, 2021

◆

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Would Russia Ever Help Syria Break Away From Iranian Influence?

Israel seems to hope that differences between Moscow and Tehran will emerge with greater clarity as the fighting ends, but this view reflects wishful thinking more than reality.

Dec 16, 2021

◆

Anna Borshchevskaya

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett meets with the UAE's foreign minister in December 2021 - Source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Bennett Visit Shows the UAE Balancing Between Israeli Ties and Regional De-escalation

The meeting confirmed how eager both countries are to keep their economic progress humming along, but such cooperation could become complicated if concerns about Iran’s nuclear program come to a head.

Dec 16, 2021

◆

David Makovsky

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal

The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.

Dec 14, 2021

◆

Patrick Clawson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Playground: Kinetic Operations Refocus on East Syria

Iran-backed groups seem to be directing their more dangerous attacks against coalition forces in Syria, not Iraq, and the trend could accelerate in early 2022.

Dec 14, 2021

◆

Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy

Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.

Dec 13, 2021

◆

Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Gulf Arab Summit Could Be Overshadowed by Israel-UAE Meeting

Normalization with Israel will be the elephant in the room at the Riyadh summit, though Iran diplomacy and persistent internal rifts bear close watching as well.

Dec 13, 2021

◆

Simon Henderson
Elana DeLozier

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 2): December Attacks

Desperate militias are now killing Shia civilians in mass-casualty bombings as they try to assassinate Iraqi investigators and intelligence personnel.

Dec 10, 2021

◆

Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here

Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.

Dec 10, 2021

◆

David Pollock

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Akram Kaabi's Revealing Speech

Kaabi has long been Iran's chosen man in the self-styled Iraqi "resistance," and his latest remarks seemed like an attempt to seize control of militia public messaging.

Dec 9, 2021

◆

Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Lebanon Stands at a Crossroad Between a Painful Revival and a Complete Submission to Iran

The country’s ongoing crises are closely intertwined with Hezbollah’s internal challenges, creating real potential for change if the West stands firmly behind fair elections, judicial accountability, and targeted pressure.

Dec 7, 2021

◆

Hanin Ghaddar

US Army soldiers fire artillery in Syria

Brief Analysis

The Future of al-Tanf Garrison in Syria

The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.

Dec 6, 2021

◆

Grant Rumley
David Schenker

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.

Articles & Testimony

Tehran Won’t Tolerate a Reset with Washington—But Will Take a Deal

As the previous nuclear agreement showed, U.S. officials don’t need to change the regime’s mind about America’s supposedly nefarious intentions in order to cut a deal.

Dec 6, 2021

◆

Amir Toumaj

Articles & Testimony

Why Israel (Sort of) Misses the Iran Deal

Given the nuclear program’s advancement under the U.S. maximum pressure policy, a raft of Israeli officials now say the JCPOA was better than nothing—but rejoining it will be difficult.

Dec 6, 2021

◆

Neri Zilber

Brief Analysis

A New Chance at Kingmaking for Iraqi Kurds

With militias on the back foot, the United States should lean on Kurdish and Iraqi leaders to find unity of purpose in confronting the destabilizing actions of pro-Iran groups.

Dec 1, 2021

◆

Bilal Wahab

Video

Brief Analysis

How Tehran Views Washington

Researchers discuss Iran’s mindset toward the Biden administration and the country’s prospects for internal change as nuclear talks resume in Vienna.

Dec 1, 2021

◆

Amir Toumaj
Sanam Vakil

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

Never miss a breaking event on U.S. policy interests in the Middle East. Customize your subscription to our expert analysis, op-eds, live events, podcasts, and special reports.

Regions & Countries

Issues

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Regions & Countries

Issues

Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Sign Up for Updates on Iran