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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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U.S. soldiers at an Iraqi base after a rocket attack by Iran-backed militias

Articles & Testimony

Why Biden’s Airstrikes on Iran Militias Matter

The operation on the Iraq-Syria border could prove more significant than critics allow, but only if the administration keeps showing that there are limits to what it will tolerate in pursuing a new nuclear deal.

Phillip Smyth

Biden’s Warning to Iran and Its Proxies: Implications of the Syria Strike

The administration’s early recourse to armed force may have surprised Tehran, but the proxy tests will continue, suggesting the need for sustained U.S. intelligence support and multilateral engagement with partners.

Michael Knights

Attributing the Erbil Attack: The Role of Open-Source Monitoring

Even Iran’s proxies now have proxies, but authorities can still untangle and attribute their illegal acts through expanded use of rich open-source evidence.

Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

Iran's Majlis head Qalibaf, former defense minister Dehghan

In-Depth Reports

The 2021 Iranian Presidential Election A Preliminary Assessment

Sudden Succession Essay Series

Whoever wins, the result will intimate deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future.

Albert B. Wolf

U.S. and Israeli flags

Israel Braces for U.S. Revival of the JCPOA

The best approach for both governments is to internalize lessons from 2015 and enter a comprehensive, discreet discussion focusing on constructive ideas and realistic outcomes.

Michael Herzog

Articles & Testimony

Rocket Attacks on Erbil: Part 2

The U.S. response needs to get more specific, while the KRG and Baghdad need to patch up their urgent security differences and stop entangling them with broader territorial, constitutional, or budgetary issues.

David Pollock

President Joe Biden speaks on the phone in the Oval Office of the White House

Articles & Testimony

Iran Just Handed Biden His First Credibility Test

Proxy rocket attacks in Iraq require a clear response, otherwise the safety of U.S. troops and the prospect of nuclear negotiations will both be in doubt.

Michael Knights

Rockets over Erbil: How to Respond to an Iraqi Militia Outrage

Iran-backed militias took the unprecedented step of rocketing a major city and U.S. base in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Biden administration must quickly find its own formula for restoring deterrence.

Michael Knights

Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov

Articles & Testimony

Don’t Expect Russia to Help Save the Iran Deal

In seeking to salvage the JCPOA, Biden should not assume cooperation from Moscow, but instead focus on building a unified strategy that strengthens the U.S. negotiating position.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

Biden’s Iran Dilemma

Tehran’s nuclear and regional activities are part of a single strategy that aims to paralyze stronger foes, so Washington’s policies for responding to each challenge should likewise overlap considerably.

Michael Singh

“Pylon-Gate”: Reconstruction of a Muqawama Disinformation Operation

Militia Spotlight

The KH-affiliated media group Unit 10,000 planted disinformation about a nonexistent U.S. airstrike, stoked the story, and then tried to remove its fingerprints from the original "fake news."

Crispin Smith

Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be

By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.

Omer Carmi

Gideon Saar

New Leadership for Israel? A Conversation with Gideon Saar

The New Hope party leader and former Likud minister discusses why he is running in Israel’s March election, how his policies differ from Netanyahu’s, and what his approach will be on key issues such as the Middle East peace process and the Iranian nuclear challenge,

Gideon Saar

Map "Syria's Borders Are Under External Control"

Maps & Graphics

The Assad Regime Has Failed to Restore Full Sovereignty Over Syria

By ceding control of its borders and airspace to various foreign actors, the regime has essentially resigned itself to a limited but potentially durable existence for the long term.

Fabrice Balanche

How to Use Militia Spotlight

Militia Spotlight

Militia Spotlight provides rapid, high-quality analysis and contextualization of militia activities in Iraq and Syria.

Michael Knights

Khamenei Sets Conditions for Iran to Resume Its Nuclear Commitments

By stating initial terms that he knows Washington will not meet right now, the Supreme Leader is once again signaling his lack of interest in returning to full JCPOA compliance—at least not before President Rouhani leaves office in August.

Mehdi Khalaji

How the United States Should View Iraq’s Shrine Militias

Despite welcoming the idea of separating the nationalist “shrine units” from the Iran-leaning Popular Mobilization Forces, Washington should lighten its touch on the issue.

Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking

The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."

Michael Eisenstadt
Mehdi Khalaji

Iranian military leaders inspect drones.

Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics

Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.

Michael Knights

CENTCOM seal

Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light

The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.

Assaf Orion
Mark Montgomery

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