Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

America, the Middle East, and the World: A Conversation with Tony Blair

The former Prime Minister discusses the challenges and opportunities facing the Biden administration twenty years after 9/11 and a decade after the Arab Spring.

January 11, 2021

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Tony Blair

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s First Speech of 2021: Reemphasizing U.S. Weakness, Iranian Self-Reliance

Although the Supreme Leader left room for Biden to return to the nuclear deal and dialed down the vengeful rhetoric, his main message was that Iran cannot trust Washington when it comes to economic matters, security issues, or even coronavirus vaccines.

Jan 8, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East

Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.

Jan 6, 2021

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Pierre Morcos

In-Depth Reports

The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks:

Openings and Obstacles

A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.

Jan 5, 2021

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Dennis Ross

◆ Transition 2021

Video

Brief Analysis

Presidential Transition Event:

Thinking About the Next Phase of Iran Nuclear Diplomacy

Three veteran policy practitioners examine the challenges that the Biden administration will face as it considers whether and how to reenter the Iran nuclear agreement.

January 6, 2021

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Dennis Ross
Suzanne Maloney
Meghan O'Sullivan

Articles & Testimony

Why an Iran Attack Could Be Biden’s “Hour One” Crisis

Tehran and its proxies may wait until after inauguration to take any action, potentially leaving Biden to decide how to balance the safety of American personnel with the chance for reengagement.

Jan 2, 2021

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

A Missile Defense “Manhattan Project” in the Middle East

One of the fruits of Arab-Israeli normalization should be more robust U.S.-led missile defense collaboration between states that face the greatest threat from Iran.

Dec 30, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Submarine Movements on Iran’s Doorstep: Military and Legal Implications

Unusual deployments by the U.S. and Israeli navies may be intended to deter Iranian attacks in the Gulf, but both moves are ripe for misinterpretation in Tehran.

Dec 29, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

How Biden’s Iran Policy Can Have a Chance to Succeed

No sanctions relief should be granted without nuclear concessions, and a “less for less” deal may be the best way of reaching a viable compromise in the near term.

Dec 26, 2020

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Dennis Ross

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Lays Out a Framework for Avenging Soleimani and Reentering Talks

In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.

Dec 18, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

To Secure an Iran Nuclear Deal, Include the Mideast’s Powers

For two decades and running, diplomatic efforts have noticeably omitted the regional states most directly in the line of Tehran’s fire, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Dec 15, 2020

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Jay Solomon

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah Has Created Parallel Financial and Welfare Systems to Manage the Current Crisis

To contain corrupt actors and facilitate reform, the international community must provide alternatives to Hezbollah pharmaceutical and food programs while filling gaps that the group is unable to address.

Dec 9, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price

Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.

Dec 3, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran’s New Nuclear Law: Negotiating Tactic, Domestic Political Tool, or Both?

The seemingly provocative legislation is as much theater as reality given the parliament’s relatively small role in foreign policy.

Dec 3, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Washington Pushes to End the Qatar Rift

Successful diplomacy could enhance Arab normalization with Israel and boost U.S. efforts to counter Iran, but it is unclear if Riyadh wants to bargain now or wait for Joe Biden.

Dec 1, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Speech Sets the Boundaries of Engagement with the West

In his first major address since Joe Biden’s election, the Supreme Leader downplayed the prospect of negotiating an end to U.S. sanctions, instead urging Iranian officials to focus on increasing the country’s self-reliance and solving its deep economic problems.

Nov 30, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Who Killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's Nuclear Chief? Israel Is the Likely Suspect

The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.

Nov 27, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Houthi Terrorism Designation More Likely to Deliver Famine and Entanglement Than Leverage

To stave off a potential humanitarian disaster in Yemen, keep communication lines open, and avoid getting drawn into the war, the Trump administration should not designate the Houthis.

Nov 25, 2020

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Elana DeLozier

In-Depth Reports

Iran's 2021 Presidential Vote and the Tightening of Regime Control

Joe Biden's victory in America may herald a measure of de-escalation with Iran, but the Supreme Leader is unlikely to be moved. Ayatollah Khamenei does not really distinguish between Democratic and Republican intentions—after all, he agreed to a nuclear deal with the Obama administration only to see President Trump tear

Nov 23, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

How Biden Can Restore America’s Role Abroad

Doing so means finding the right mix of hard and soft power, creating new mechanisms with democratic allies, and answering hard questions about various countries and conflicts in the Middle East.

Nov 20, 2020

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Dennis Ross

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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