Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov

Don’t Expect Russia to Help Save the Iran Deal

In seeking to salvage the JCPOA, Biden should not assume cooperation from Moscow, but instead focus on building a unified strategy that strengthens the U.S. negotiating position.

Feb 16, 2021

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

Biden’s Iran Dilemma

Tehran’s nuclear and regional activities are part of a single strategy that aims to paralyze stronger foes, so Washington’s policies for responding to each challenge should likewise overlap considerably.

February 2021

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Michael Singh

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

“Pylon-Gate”: Reconstruction of a Muqawama Disinformation Operation

The KH-affiliated media group Unit 10,000 planted disinformation about a nonexistent U.S. airstrike, stoked the story, and then tried to remove its fingerprints from the original "fake news."

Feb 12, 2021

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Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be

By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.

Feb 11, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Video

Brief Analysis

New Leadership for Israel? A Conversation with Gideon Saar

The New Hope party leader and former Likud minister discusses why he is running in Israel’s March election, how his policies differ from Netanyahu’s, and what his approach will be on key issues such as the Middle East peace process and the Iranian nuclear challenge,

Feb 10, 2021

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Gideon Saar

Map "Syria's Borders Are Under External Control"

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Assad Regime Has Failed to Restore Full Sovereignty Over Syria

By ceding control of its borders and airspace to various foreign actors, the regime has essentially resigned itself to a limited but potentially durable existence for the long term.

Feb 10, 2021

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Fabrice Balanche

Brief Analysis

How to Use Militia Spotlight

Militia Spotlight provides timely, high-quality evidence, analysis and contextualization of militia activities in Iraq and Syria, both within government agencies and outside them.

Feb 10, 2021

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Sets Conditions for Iran to Resume Its Nuclear Commitments

By stating initial terms that he knows Washington will not meet right now, the Supreme Leader is once again signaling his lack of interest in returning to full JCPOA compliance—at least not before President Rouhani leaves office in August.

Feb 8, 2021

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

How the United States Should View Iraq’s Shrine Militias

Despite welcoming the idea of separating the nationalist “shrine units” from the Iran-leaning Popular Mobilization Forces, Washington should lighten its touch on the issue.

Feb 5, 2021

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking

The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."

Feb 4, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt
Mehdi Khalaji

Iranian military leaders inspect drones.

Brief Analysis

Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics

Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.

Jan 29, 2021

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light

The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.

Jan 28, 2021

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Assaf Orion
Mark Montgomery

Articles & Testimony

Are There Pieces of Trump’s Foreign Policy Worth Keeping?

Although the instinct to make dramatic changes is understandable and sometimes correct, certain elements of Trump policy provide good opportunities for furthering Arab-Israel engagement, pressuring Iran, and advancing other issues.

Jan 27, 2021

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Dennis Ross
Juan Zarate

Brief Analysis

What Did the Confirmation Hearings Reveal About Biden’s Middle East Policy?

Antony Blinken, Avril Haines, and Lloyd Austin responded at length to congressional questions about the Iran nuclear deal, the Yemen war, Arab-Israel normalization, and other pressing regional issues.

Jan 22, 2021

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Ilari Papa

Brief Analysis

Changing of the Guard: New Iraqi Militia Trends and Responses

In the year since their most iconic leaders were killed, Iran-backed militias in Iraq have been changing in crucial ways, providing rich insights into how Baghdad and its international partners should approach them in 2021.

Jan 19, 2021

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

Articles & Testimony

Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions

Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.

Jan 19, 2021

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Dennis Ross

Brief Analysis

How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?

The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.

Jan 15, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt
Christine McVann

Brief Analysis

Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging

Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.

Jan 14, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

The U.S. Designation of Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Fadak

The latest sanctions against a senior leader in the Iranian-backed terrorist militia are a reminder that such figures cannot slip onto the political spectrum merely by changing their job title.

Jan 13, 2021

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

New Iranian Bill Aims to Officialize a Policy of Avenging Soleimani and Destroying Israel

In addition to prohibiting any negotiations over Iran’s military power or regional ambitions, the legislation would oblige the government to work toward evicting the United States from the Middle East and destroying Israel within twenty years.

Jan 12, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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