Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Washington’s conspicuous silence over the nuclear sabotage at Natanz no doubt stems from the fact that Israel has bought more time for negotiations.

Apr 14, 2021

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David Pollock

In-Depth Reports

Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone

Insights from Four Decades of Conflict

The United States has repeatedly failed to understand the unique requirements of gray zone deterrence. A U.S. strategy would not only facilitate more successful diplomacy with Tehran but also enhance efforts to counter other actors such as China and Russia.

Apr 14, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt

Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

Brief Analysis

Iran and Israel’s Undeclared War at Sea (Part 2): The Potential for Military Escalation

Although both sides have sought to keep their tit-for-tat maritime attacks under control, they pose a substantial risk of miscalculation and escalation that could jeopardize international shipping.

Apr 13, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Team of Legal Gladiators? Iraqi Militias’ Tortured Relationship with Law

Iran-backed armed groups hate being exposed as criminals in the eyes of a populace that cares deeply about rule of law, so they have turned Iraq’s legal sector into a battlespace.

Apr 12, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

‘Suspicious’ Blackout at Iranian Nuclear Site Almost Certain to Prompt Retaliation

Israel was silent the last time there was a mysterious explosion at Natanz, but this time Iran is not only being embarrassed, it is being humiliated.

Apr 12, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Sabereen News

Sabereen News is the main social media conglomerate supporting all "resistance" actions and factions in Iraq.

Apr 9, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh

Brief Analysis

China’s Foreign Minister Tours the Middle East: Outcomes and Implications

The trip echoed Beijing’s strategy of stringing together initiatives that seem insubstantial on their own but cumulatively threaten to undermine U.S. and regional interests.

Apr 9, 2021

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Ilari Papa

Brief Analysis

Will Khamenei’s Son Play a Role in Iranian Succession?

Revived rumors about Mojtaba Khamenei’s activities inside the regime provide another lens through which to view the complex dynamics that will drive the eventual succession process.

Apr 7, 2021

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Wilfried Buchta

Brief Analysis

Iran and Israel’s Undeclared War at Sea (Part 1): IRGC-Hezbollah Financing Schemes

Recent maritime escalation between the two countries stems mainly from Iranian efforts to fund Hezbollah, underscoring the financial interdependency between the Lebanese militia, Tehran, and the Syrian regime.

Apr 6, 2021

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Matthew Levitt

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Rising Profile of Fasail al-Muqawama al-Duwaliya in Convoy Bombings

The group has intensified its claims of convoy attacks, shifting from Anbar-focused roadside bombings to incidents on the Kuwaiti border.

Apr 2, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Kataib Hezbollah

Kataib Hezbollah is the premier militia in Iraq, operating under Iran's direct command and fielding a wide range of cells responsible for kinetic, media, and social operations, some bankrolled by the Iraqi state.

Apr 1, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq

A facade group with unique ties to Kataib Hezbollah, Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq has been used exclusively to claim or threaten attacks against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Apr 1, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Brief Analysis

Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah”: Implications of Houthi Missile and Drone Improvements

As the Iran-backed rebels make further range leaps that bring them closer to reaching Israel and other countries, the United States needs to start viewing them as a proliferation challenge beyond Yemen’s civil war.

Apr 1, 2021

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Michael Knights

Video

Brief Analysis

Iran's Long Game in Syria

Three scholars explore the stunning breadth of Iranian dominance over Damascus and what this means for any U.S. plans to foster stability in Syria or reopen negotiations with Tehran.

Mar 29, 2021

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Oula A. Alrifai
Nakissa Jahanbani
Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

Why Iran’s Proxies Fear Evidence

Iraqi militias value legitimacy and try to portray themselves as acting within the law, so evidence-based approaches can be very effective at reining in those who attack on Tehran’s behalf.

Mar 25, 2021

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Michael Knights

Nuclear warhead schematics from the Manhattan Project, 1945

Brief Analysis

Iranian Nuclear Breakout: What It Is and How to Calculate It

With a basic knowledge of uranium enrichment and an interactive spreadsheet, governments and even the public can quickly work out how close Tehran may be to a nuclear weapon.

Mar 24, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Continues Playing Hardball in Nowruz Speech

Far from compromising his nuclear position, the Supreme Leader keeps asserting that Iran can neutralize sanctions and solve its economic challenges on its own, both by leveraging domestic capabilities and demonstrating the people’s supposed electoral support for the regime.

Mar 22, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy: Cornerstone of Its Asymmetric Way of War

America’s failure to operate effectively in the gray zone against a third-tier power like Iran raises questions about its ability to counter much more potent actors like Russia and China.

Mar 19, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

The Saudi Air Defense Problem Is a U.S. Opportunity

Washington can do much to help the kingdom close its serious air defense gaps, whereas acquiring Russian S-400s would be militarily insufficient and strategically disastrous.

Mar 17, 2021

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Patrick Schmidt

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

A Return to the Convoy Strategy and Projection of Unity

The muqawama are trying to put squabbles over the utility of convoy bombings behind them and are making a concerted attempt to demonstrate inter- and intra-group unity.

Mar 15, 2021

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Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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