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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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COP28 Logo - source: United Nations
Brief Analysis
Rising Temperatures at Dubai’s COP28 Meeting
The conference agenda extends well beyond climate issues, with implications for regional rivalries, U.S.-Emirati relations, and Israeli wartime diplomacy.
Nov 30, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Sultan Haitham at a meeting with Secretary Mike Pompeo
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sultan’s Landmark Speech to the Majlis Oman: A Window into Oman’s Economic Reforms
Haitham spoke both as a sovereign and as a prime minister accounting for progress.
Nov 27, 2023
◆
  • Jonathan Campbell-James
Articles & Testimony
Houthi Ship Seizure, OPEC+ Meeting, and COP28 Plans Could Spike Oil Prices
As Iran-backed proxies continue targeting Israeli and U.S. interests, mounting public anger in the Gulf states might spur leaders to announce production cuts at this week’s cartel meeting.
Nov 20, 2023
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  • Simon Henderson
Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Articles & Testimony
Gaza War Shows Heightened Risk of Escalation in the Region
Although Washington and its partners have kept the war from spreading so far, the lack of clear rules on some fronts—particularly Syria—has created a dangerous environment in which any actor might inadvertently cross someone’s red lines.
Nov 17, 2023
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  • Andrew J. Tabler
A photo illustration shows flags representing the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council
Articles & Testimony
US-Gulf Reset in a Shifting Global Order
Although the Persian Gulf region is far from being fully self-sufficient, countries are gradually diversifying their partnerships—and doing so on their own terms.
Nov 2, 2023
◆
  • Nickolay Mladenov
  • Narayanappa Janardhan
A Qatar Airways Airbus A350 fuselage
Brief Analysis
Qatar’s Relations with Washington and Israel Are Being Tested
The Gulf state is using its close relationship with Hamas to help secure the release of Gaza hostages, but these same relations could wind up damaging its political and military ties with the United States.
Oct 24, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
AWH threat against U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE, October 24, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Facade Group Threatens Gulf States Again
An Iran-aligned group that presaged two previous drone attacks on Gulf cities has issued a new threat against U.S. targets in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Oct 24, 2023
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  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Israel’s War Aims and the Principles of a Post-Hamas Administration in Gaza
It’s not too early to think about the “day after” the war—even preliminary planning to create an interim administration will help clarify objectives for Israel’s leaders, sustain U.S. support, provide a more positive alternative future for Palestinians, and give Arab allies a rationale to play a more constructive role.
Oct 17, 2023
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  • Robert Satloff
  • Dennis Ross
  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Deterring Escalation and Expansion of the Gaza War by Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”
The United States must underscore the risks that such action would incur and incentivize Tehran to rein in its proxies and partners.
Oct 13, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Hamas Has Fractured the Arab World
A closer look at the political and security dilemmas that Arab leaders will face as the Hamas-Israel war intensifies.
Oct 13, 2023
◆
  • Ghaith al-Omari
An Israeli flag is projected on the Eiffel Tower in Paris in response to the Hamas terror attacks on Israel in October 2023 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
International Reactions to the Hamas Attack on Israel
At least forty-four nations have condemned Hamas and decried its tactics as terrorism, but regional players such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Iraq have pinned responsibility on Israel.
Oct 11, 2023
◆
  • Cleary Waldo
  • Gabriel Epstein
  • Sydney Hilbush
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
◆ Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War
Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Middle Eastern Ambivalence Toward Russia and Ukraine
An in-depth look at how regional states have responded to Putin's invasion of Ukraine—by their actions as much as their words.
Oct 10, 2023
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
A Palestinian woman walks by a mural in Bethlehem
Articles & Testimony
Peace With Saudi Arabia Is Transformative But Requires Choices
Riyadh understands that immediate Palestinian statehood is not an option, but it still needs Israel to take steps that demonstrably improve daily life in the West Bank and curtail settlement growth.
Oct 4, 2023
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  • Dennis Ross
Houthi fighters parade with their missile systems in Sanaa in September 2023 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Celebrates Coup Anniversary in Deadly Fashion
Ending the war and facilitating other U.S.-Saudi diplomatic tracks is crucial, but neither goal will be served by turning a blind eye to the Houthis’ latest jumps in militarization.
Sep 28, 2023
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  • Michael Knights
  • Farzin Nadimi
The flag of the IAEA
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia Signals It Will Accept Stricter Nuclear Inspections
Official statements at the latest IAEA meeting are effectively a concession in the kingdom’s negotiating stance on normalization with Israel.
Sep 26, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia in July 2022
Brief Analysis
Israel Normalization Negotiations and the U.S.-Saudi Defense Relationship
In discussing a potential deal with Israel, Riyadh is pressing Washington for expedited access to more advanced U.S. weaponry.
Sep 25, 2023
◆
  • Grant Rumley
President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu meet at the United Nations in New York in September 2023 - source: Prime Minister's Office
Brief Analysis
Saudi Dealmaking to Top Biden and Netanyahu’s New York Agenda
The long-delayed meeting should clarify the contours and possible requirements for normalization with Riyadh, though Israel’s ongoing domestic turmoil and policy toward the Palestinians may necessitate some difficult political choices.
Sep 19, 2023
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  • David Makovsky
Saudi flag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Third of Saudis Want Business With Israel Now, Even Without Formal Ties; “Muslim Rights” Top List of Public’s Terms for Full Normalization
A unique new public opinion poll from Saudi Arabia sheds light on popular attitudes there toward a potential deal to “normalize” relations with Israel.
Sep 18, 2023
◆
  • David Pollock
Wang Yi, director of China's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Minister of State and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban shake hands in Beijing in March 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Gulf De-escalation and Hedging in the Shadow of US Retrenchment
Although any decrease in tensions is welcome, Washington should be concerned that regional rapprochement is being driven by diminished confidence in the United States.
Sep 12, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia and Lebanon: A Love-Hate Relationship
Riyadh won’t lend a helping hand in Lebanon unless Washington takes action on fully implementing the Taif Accord, curbing Captagon smugglers, and reversing Iran and Hezbollah’s takeover of the state.
Sep 12, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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