Gulf & Energy Policy

The Saudi-led coalition has waged a dynamic campaign, but all actions so far constitute a prelude to the tougher fighting ahead should the coalition launch an assault on Sana and the Houthi heartland.

The following is an excerpt from Aaron Zelin's contribution to the Carter Center report Countering Daesh Propaganda: Action-Oriented Research for Practical Policy Outcomes . To read his full chapter, download the PDF. The Islamic State provides an unprecedented amount of documentation on its own nature and the messages it hopes

Tehran and its proxies have increased their efforts to provide armor-piercing explosive devices to Shiite cells in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and this game-changing escalation could pose even greater challenges if Riyadh takes further action in Syria.

The situation in the Middle East is beginning to resemble the Balkans: either the Balkans in the early 1990s, before Washington woke up and played its role as security leader, or the Balkans before World War I, when no one woke up.

Having a permanent military foothold in the Gulf will put Turkey in an elite group of powers, but more presence also means more exposure, whether to Saudi-Iranian tensions or other local crises.

The momentum of Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the king's young son, appears almost unstoppable, but many oppose his ascent.

Washington must act promptly to prevent the execution of a Saudi Shiite leader and the Riyadh-Tehran diplomatic break from imperiling the fight against the Islamic State and the Iran nuclear accord.

U.S.-led diplomatic efforts had aimed to make up for the recent lack of military progress and stave off a humanitarian crisis, but a deadly rebel attack could threaten the planned ceasefire.

The solidarity expressed at the latest regional gathering of senior U.S., European, and Middle Eastern defense officials, diplomats, journalists, and analysts was encouraging, though some aspects of Washington's policies in Syria and elsewhere still need clarification.