Energy & Economics

Policy Analysis on Energy & Economics

How to Serve U.S. Interests by Saving Kurdistan’s Economy

Unless Washington intervenes with cost-effective, forceful measures, Iraqi Kurdistan could be the first Middle Eastern economy to implode under the pressure of coronavirus and low oil prices.

Mar 30, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows

Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever.

Mar 27, 2020

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Kevjn Lim

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Nowruz Speech in a Time of Coronavirus

His remarks focused on inspiring the nation to stay strong in the face of the crisis while refusing to trust U.S. aid, though without mentioning his normal laundry list of foreign policy issues.

Mar 23, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.

Mar 20, 2020

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

In the Saudi-Russian Oil Price War, the U.S. Blinks First

This is President Trump’s dilemma: how to safeguard America’s shale-based energy independence without making apparent concessions to Moscow.

Mar 20, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed

As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.

Mar 17, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests

The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.

Mar 16, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government

Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.

Mar 13, 2020

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Bilal Wahab

Articles & Testimony

Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims

The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.

Mar 10, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics

Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.

Mar 9, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’

Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.

Mar 5, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis

Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.

Mar 2, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Sacked Saudi Energy Minister Returns to Cabinet

Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.

Feb 26, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics

If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.

Feb 26, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

FATF’s Approach to Iran Should Mix Engagement with Pressure

Although it is time for the international standard-setter to act, returning Iran to the blacklist need not be seen as the end of FATF engagement with the country.

Feb 18, 2020

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Katherine Bauer

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe

Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises.

Feb 10, 2020

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Fabrice Balanche

Brief Analysis

Continuity vs. Overreach in the Trump Peace Plan (Part 2): Security, Refugees, and Narratives

By granting Israel much more say over the sovereignty of a future Palestinian state and its ability to absorb refugees, the document may undermine the administration’s ability to build an international coalition behind its policies.

Feb 4, 2020

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Ghaith al-Omari

Brief Analysis

Syria’s Economic Crisis Sparks Rare Protests in Regime Territory

Besides highlighting Assad’s financial mismanagement, the recent unrest gives the international community a genuine opportunity to push for transition while bolstering the more prosperous local administration in the northeast.

Jan 31, 2020

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Oula A. Alrifai

Articles & Testimony

Here’s How the U.S. Can Pressure Lebanon’s New Government to Tackle Corruption

Designating corrupt businessmen and officials under the Global Magnitsky Act would offer a tangible response to the persistent anti-sectarian demands of Lebanese protesters.

Jan 26, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt

Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov

Brief Analysis

Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya

As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role.

Jan 24, 2020

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

Simon Henderson

Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.