All Policy Analysis by Grant Rumley

The North African country has maintained a close rapport with its traditional security partner, but a perpetual desire for balance and autonomy could offer opportunities for Western countries, including the United States.

In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a ripple effect on global politics, including in the Middle East.

China brokered the agreement, but this does not signal a new Beijing-led order in the Middle East—in fact, it could make regional tensions worse.

His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.

Regional governments will continue to balance between Beijing and Washington, so policymakers should focus on tipping the scale in America’s favor, countering the narrative of U.S. withdrawal, and avoiding unnecessary escalation with China.

A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information.

A former Pentagon advisor testifies on how the war might affect Moscow's ability to sell arms to MENA governments and project power in the region.

The United States should use enticements as well as sanctions to deter friends from buying Russian arms.

Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.

In what has become a major test of America’s shift to great power competition, Washington must weigh its desire to maintain a close security partnership with the UAE against Abu Dhabi’s growing ties with China.

The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.

Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.

Washington should publicly emphasize the importance of preserving hard-won progress on political pluralism and human rights, while privately conveying that Tunis must return to the constitutional framework in order to receive MCC and IMF funding.

The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.

Although continued pressure on the country’s political elites is necessary, the U.S. government needs to find more immediate ways of helping soldiers and citizens by making creative use of State, Defense, and congressional authorities.

In this episode of the Middle East PolicyCast podcast, Grant Rumley & Neri Zilber share their assessments of the factors that sparked and escalated the May 2021 Gaza conflict and share advice for policymakers who seek to prevent the renewal of major violence between Hamas and Israel.

Both sides employed new methods in this round, and while Israel’s were more effective in military terms, the true measure of success will depend on how quickly Hamas can rebuild its warfighting capabilities and exploit any political gains.

The spike in violence and threats of new sanctions will only exacerbate months of simmering tensions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

A deal brokered by exiled Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan may have fended off a war this summer, but it raises the likelihood of conflict in the future.