All Policy Analysis by Grant Rumley

A regularly updated compendium of Beijing’s reactions to the Gaza war, including analysis of subtle shifts in its traditional approach of trying to please all sides.

A panel of experts discuss the status of the crisis after nearly two weeks of fighting, focusing on President Biden’s visit, the contours of humanitarian assistance, ongoing de-escalation efforts, and more.

The Biden administration views its defense support to Israel as sufficient at the current level of hostilities, but that may change as the war progresses and, potentially, expands.

In discussing a potential deal with Israel, Riyadh is pressing Washington for expedited access to more advanced U.S. weaponry.

As Moscow grapples with battlefield losses and other challenges, traditional Russian clients are considering alternative sources, emerging exporters are amplifying their sales pitches, and governments are building up their domestic defense industrial bases.

The North African country has maintained a close rapport with its traditional security partner, but a perpetual desire for balance and autonomy could offer opportunities for Western countries, including the United States.

In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a ripple effect on global politics, including in the Middle East.

China brokered the agreement, but this does not signal a new Beijing-led order in the Middle East—in fact, it could make regional tensions worse.

His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.

Regional governments will continue to balance between Beijing and Washington, so policymakers should focus on tipping the scale in America’s favor, countering the narrative of U.S. withdrawal, and avoiding unnecessary escalation with China.

A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information.

A former Pentagon advisor testifies on how the war might affect Moscow's ability to sell arms to MENA governments and project power in the region.

The United States should use enticements as well as sanctions to deter friends from buying Russian arms.

Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.

In what has become a major test of America’s shift to great power competition, Washington must weigh its desire to maintain a close security partnership with the UAE against Abu Dhabi’s growing ties with China.

The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.

Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.

Washington should publicly emphasize the importance of preserving hard-won progress on political pluralism and human rights, while privately conveying that Tunis must return to the constitutional framework in order to receive MCC and IMF funding.

The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.