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All Policy Analysis by Michael Eisenstadt
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In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
Nov 25, 2024
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?
Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.
Nov 15, 2024
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran
Experience shows that a balanced strategy blending deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment can more effectively contain Iran.
Apr 26, 2024
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Michael Eisenstadt
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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Articles & Testimony
Political and Strategic Cultures in the Longue Duree: Insights from the Middle East
A more rigorous understanding of how political and strategic cultures interact to affect the conduct of states could aid intelligence analysts and policymakers.
October 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Campaign Against Hamas in Gaza: War Aims and Operational Challenges
The goal of destroying Hamas will require a prolonged military effort, but the longer the fighting drags on, the less likely Israel will be to retain the freedom of action needed to achieve its war aims.
Oct 31, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
America’s Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for a Course Adjustment
Policymakers need to stay focused on halting the regime’s fissile material buildup while undertaking a broader, longer-term effort to shape its assessment of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons.
Oct 20, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Deterring Escalation and Expansion of the Gaza War by Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”
The United States must underscore the risks that such action would incur and incentivize Tehran to rein in its proxies and partners.
Oct 13, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Iranian Military Developments and Trends
Iran’s future military activities will likely be marked by greater continuity than change, but Supreme Leader Khamenei’s succession could presage more risk-acceptant behavior and a reconsideration of its nuclear hedging strategy.
Apr 13, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran
Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.
Feb 1, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Proliferation Strategy: U.S. Policy Options
Three experts discuss how Washington might feasibly attempt to steer Tehran away from actively pursuing nuclear weapons.
Dec 16, 2022
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Michael Eisenstadt
Mahsa Rouhi
Suzanne Maloney
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy:
Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus
Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward.
Nov 29, 2022
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip
Tehran may see the president’s attendance at the GCC+3 summit as a tempting opportunity to scuttle a U.S.-Gulf reset, perhaps by using a cyber or military provocation to humiliate the hosts and demonstrate America’s inability to protect them.
Jul 11, 2022
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Michael Eisenstadt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Do Aircraft Carriers Deter Iran?
There are more effective, less costly, and more sustainable ways to deter Tehran and shape its behavior than back-to-back deployments of carrier strike groups to the Gulf.
Aug 6, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
Henry Mihm
In-Depth Reports
Beyond Forever Wars and Great Power Competition:
Rethinking the U.S. Military Role in the Middle East
To meet future security challenges, the United States will need to reassess how it deters adversaries and conducts security force assistance in the region, while becoming more proficient in gray zone operations and information activities. Addressing cultural factors and trends such as climate change will require solutions outside the traditional national security toolkit.
Jun 1, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
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Transition 2021
Video
Brief Analysis
An Expanded Agenda for U.S.-Israel Partnership: New Technologies, New Opportunities
Experts discuss how the two allies can work more closely on everything from artificial intelligence to missile defense, ideally with help from emerging Arab partners.
May 7, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
Henry "Trey" Obering III
Samantha Ravich
David Pollock
In-Depth Reports
Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone
Insights from Four Decades of Conflict
The United States has repeatedly failed to understand the unique requirements of gray zone deterrence. A U.S. strategy would not only facilitate more successful diplomacy with Tehran but also enhance efforts to counter other actors such as China and Russia.
Apr 14, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy: Cornerstone of Its Asymmetric Way of War
America’s failure to operate effectively in the gray zone against a third-tier power like Iran raises questions about its ability to counter much more potent actors like Russia and China.
Mar 19, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
In-Depth Reports
Asset Test 2021:
How the U.S. Can Keep Benefiting from Its Alliance with Israel
Areas for especially timely U.S.-Israel cooperation include climate resilience, agtech, and medical research, as well as longstanding work in the military and security arenas.
Feb 24, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
David Pollock
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Transition 2021
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking
The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."
Feb 4, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
Mehdi Khalaji
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