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Arab & Islamic Politics

Policy Analysis on Arab & Islamic Politics

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Brief Analysis
New Khamenei Speech Underlines the Importance of Popular Support for the Regime
Instead of focusing on Iran's missile retaliation or future threats, the Supreme Leader used his latest speech to extoll the virtues of public unity behind the regime’s revolutionary goals.
Jan 8, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Moment of Truth
The group has promised bloody retribution for Suleimani’s death, but in reality it will likely stay focused on rebuilding its own diminished stature at home.
Jan 8, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russian Reactions to the U.S. Strike on Soleimani
State officials and media are condemning the incident, but Putin is well aware that his fragile role as regional mediator depends on treading carefully around Washington’s unpredictability.
Jan 7, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Soleimani’s Popularity Is Largely Limited to Iran
Mass funerals aside, his image as the quintessential Iranian nationalist made most Middle Easterners wary or actively hostile toward him, so the United States is unlikely to face popular reprisals following his death.
Jan 6, 2020
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  • Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
How Soleimani’s Killing Could Make a Stronger Iraq
As Iraq signals its willingness to evict U.S. forces following the airstrike, the time has come for discipline and a focus on shared interests.
Jan 5, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Iran May Want Revenge for Soleimani, But It May Need Restraint Instead
The incident might convince Khamenei and his advisors that their meddling in the Middle East is jeopardizing the regime’s domestic stability.
Jan 4, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Does Soleimani’s Death Matter? Findings from a 2019 Workshop
Last year’s Washington Institute forum on post-Soleimani succession suggested that the IRGC would lose a unique coordinating capability and its most important totem once he left the scene.
Jan 3, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Supreme Leader Responds to the Soleimani Assassination
Khamenei and other regime officials have been quick to swear revenge, but for now they may focus more on stoking patriotic and militaristic sentiment at home.
Jan 3, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
U.S.-Iraq Relations at a Crossroads: Policy Options
Washington should smartly employ tougher love in the coming months, working with other nations and Iraqi moderates to improve the country’s chances of recovery from militia rule.
Jan 2, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Escalation in Iraq: How to Limit the Damage and Reestablish Sovereignty
The Iraqi government’s vociferous condemnations of U.S. defensive strikes may just be rhetorical, but they highlight the stakes involved for a country veering ever closer to perpetual Iranian dominance.
Dec 31, 2019
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  • Bilal Wahab
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Dec 30, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Articles & Testimony
Assad Is Growing Stronger Under Trump’s Nonexistent Syria Policy
The Caesar Act will not put an end to the Syrian catastrophe so long as Washington keeps ceding political and military leverage to adversaries who do not care about human rights.
Dec 29, 2019
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran Can’t
Congress should offer conditional aid that forces Beirut and Baghdad to respond to their citizens’ grievances, many of which stem from Iranian-sponsored sectarianism, corruption, and violence.
Dec 24, 2019
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  • Dennis Ross
  • Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Sentences in Khashoggi Murder Will Again Test U.S. Relations
The challenge for the kingdom’s Western allies is how to square Riyadh’s announcement with the CIA and UN conclusion that the crown prince himself sanctioned the crime.
Dec 23, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
Dec 19, 2019
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure
By uniting behind the message that financial aid and punishment will be tied to specific courses of action, the United States, France, and the UN may finally be able to push Beirut into establishing a reform-minded government.
Dec 17, 2019
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
GCC Security Issues, as Their Publics See Them: A Rare Look at Real Data
Polling results from five Gulf countries show where citizens and their leaders converge and diverge on Iran, U.S. relations, and other crucial foreign policy matters.
Dec 12, 2019
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Algeria’s Election Is a Make-or-Break Moment
The vote’s outcome will not have much legitimacy in the eyes of the people, so Washington should focus on urging all parties to lay the groundwork for longer-term reforms aimed at breaking the political deadlock.
Dec 10, 2019
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  • Sarah Feuer
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
A Caretaker President Clings to Legitimacy in Yemen
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In 2012, during a moment of national and regional consensus, the reserved, nonthreatening Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was chosen as temporary president of Yemen. But Hadi, now seventy-four years old, has held onto power ever since, despite lacking a large base of domestic loyalists. Most important for the Yemeni people, the war needs to end with either a transitional council or elections so that a future leader enjoys the popular legitimacy Hadi lacks.
Dec 10, 2019
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  • Elana DeLozier
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Qatar Rift Overshadows Riyadh Summit
Given the potential for sideline progress toward healing the rift and refocusing on Iran, this year’s diplomatic theater will be more closely watched than usual.
Dec 9, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Ghaith al-Omari
Ghaith al-Omari
Ghaith al-Omari is the Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute's Irwin Levy Family Program on the U.S.-Israel Strategic Relationship.
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
Bilal Wahab
Bilal Wahab
Bilal Wahab was the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
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