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In-Depth Reports

The Outlook for Turkish Democracy:

2023 and Beyond

Over nearly two decades, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to strengthen his hold on power despite numerous political reconfigurations. With the next presidential election scheduled for 2023, many figures within his camp are already maneuvering for leverage while the opposition mulls how to defeat him. Among his potential rivals

۲۶ مارس ۲۰۲۰

Nick Danforth

Maps & Graphics

Idlib May Become the Next Gaza Strip

Given the military situation on the ground and the overriding interests of each party, the jihadist-run rebel pocket will likely be further reduced into a small, overpopulated border strip north of the M4 highway.

۲۶ مارس ۲۰۲۰

Fabrice Balanche

The U.S. Role in Idlib and Beyond: Perspectives from Syria

How can the United States mitigate the worsening humanitarian crisis in Idlib, and what do Syrian activists on the ground want from Washington?

۲۰ مارس ۲۰۲۰

Raed al-Saleh
Omar Alshogre
Rajaa Altalli
Naomi Kikoler

Articles & Testimony

The Crisis in Idlib

Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.

۱۱ مارس ۲۰۲۰

Dana Stroul

Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality

A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.

۶ مارس ۲۰۲۰

Soner Cagaptay

A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now

Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.

۴ مارس ۲۰۲۰

Soner Cagaptay

تحلیل کوتاه

واکنش‌‌ رسانه‌های عربی، ایرانی و ترکیه‌ای به استیضاح رئیس‌جمهور ترامپ

این مطلب به چگونگی بحث رسانه‌های منطقه خاورمیانه درباره فرایند استیضاح کنگره و پیامدهای احتمالی آن در انتخابات ریاست‌جمهوری سال ۲۰۲۰می‌پردازد.

۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan’s ‘Mini Empire’ in Libya and Syria

A deep dive into the evolution of Turkey’s Middle East policy and the mixed results it has had in two Russian-fueled conflict zones.

۱۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Soner Cagaptay

Turkey’s Options for Pressuring Russia in Idlib Are Limited

Weighty domestic concerns and geopolitical fears will likely keep Erdogan from pushing too hard against the current Russian-Syrian campaign, but the parties may yet broker a temporary deal to carve the province in half.

۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Soner Cagaptay

Maps & Graphics

Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe

Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises.

۱۰ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Fabrice Balanche

The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications

Three leading experts assess the current balance of power and its potential effects on counterterrorism, refugee resettlement, governance, economics, and other crucial issues.

۲۹ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Gonul Tol
Dana Stroul

Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov

Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya

As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role.

۲۴ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Anna Borshchevskaya

Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya

If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.

۱۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Ben Fishman

Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?

After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.

۱۰ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۰

Ben Fishman

The Obstacles Still Facing Israel’s Leviathan Gas Field

Regional and commercial challenges require an evolving business plan.

۳۱ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Assad Is Growing Stronger Under Trump’s Nonexistent Syria Policy

The Caesar Act will not put an end to the Syrian catastrophe so long as Washington keeps ceding political and military leverage to adversaries who do not care about human rights.

۲۹ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹

Oula A. Alrifai

Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy

Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.

۱۹ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹

Soner Cagaptay
Ben Fishman

A Decisive Vote for Humanitarian Support in Syria

Renewing the UN cross-border mechanism is crucial to helping millions of needy Syrian civilians, preventing Russia and Assad from weaponizing aid deliveries, and safeguarding future international assistance efforts.

۱۸ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹

Dana Stroul

Articles & Testimony

Turkey Doubles Region’s Troubles—First in Syria, and Now in Libya

New maritime and military agreements may pull Ankara into Libya’s civil war, adding yet another foreign actor to an already tortuous multilateral showdown.

۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

What Will It Take to Repair Middle Eastern Economies?

Directly investing in nongovernmental enterprise and giving international approval to private competition can change the dynamic in individual countries, promote liberal economies, and give citizens greater agency.

۸ دسامبر ۲۰۱۹

Bilal Wahab

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