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ترکیه

Policy Analysis on ترکیه

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Video
Will Turkey's Purchase of Russian Missiles Rupture U.S. Ties?
How have relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States come to the brink of historic crisis?
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
An Underdog Challenges Erdogan
The president, a former Istanbul mayor, has a rival in the current one.
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib
As the latest regime offensive continues, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing to overcrowded border camps, furthering Assad’s strategy of emptying as much of the Sunni Arab population as possible.
۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Video
Brief Analysis
The Istanbul Revote: What Happens Next?
Four experts discuss the opposition's landslide victory and its implications for Turkish politics generally and President Erdogan's future specifically.
۲۶ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Lisel Hintz
  • Kemal Kirisci
  • Alan Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Presidential System Isn’t Working. The Istanbul Election Shows Why.
Turkey is too diverse demographically, too big economically, and too complicated politically to be governed from a presidential palace.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey and Russia Are Not Friends, Despite Appearances
The truth is that Ankara feels threatened by Moscow, but security concerns, mistrust of the West, and an inability to secure American missiles left Erdogan searching for an alternative.
۱۶ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Andy Taylor
In-Depth Reports
Erdogan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East
The president has sought to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era reach and break ranks with traditional Western allies, but such an approach carries heavy risk of isolation, strategic miscalculation, and lost opportunities for the Turkish people.
۱۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Race for Istanbul: Erdogan’s Plan A and B
Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.
۱۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Failure on the Nile
How Turkey’s president went from being a regional Islamist leader in the Arab Spring to sharing Qatar’s role as the Middle East’s odd man out.
۲۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
If Syria Safe-Zone Talks Fail: How the SDF Might Respond to Turkish Intervention
The Kurdish-led force cannot hold the northeast on its own, and withdrawing coalition support would bolster Assad and Moscow’s interests.
۱۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • John Holland-McCowan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
No More Turkish Veto on Idlib Offensive?
Ankara’s calculations about the rebel province appear to have shifted, though it still hopes to use the situation as leverage for constraining the YPG and preventing another refugee influx.
۱۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
تحلیل کوتاه
التحكيم في مسألة خط أنابيب العراق-تركيا: تفادي الكارثة في السياسات
يشكّل خط الأنابيب بين العراق وتركيا ملكية مشتركة بين الدولتين ويخضع للاتفاقيات الدولية. ومن وجهة نظر أنقرة، تسمح هذه الاتفاقيات لـ «إقليم كردستان العراق» بالوصول إلى خط الأنابيب مباشرةً، لكنّ بغداد ترى الأمور بطريقة مختلفة وقد رفعت دعوى على تركيا أمام "غرفة التجارة الدولية". وبينما تُشرف هيئة التحكيم في هذه
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • مایکل نایتز
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Will Win in Istanbul, and What This Means for Turkish Democracy
Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.
۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Turkish Rupture Could Cause a Fissure in NATO
A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.
۱۶ آوریل ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Should Seize the Chance for Change in Turkey
The president seems pragmatic enough to recognize when he is beat and refocus his efforts on normalizing the severely polarized political system.
۵ آوریل ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Assessing the Post–July 15 Turkish Military:
Operations Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch
After Turkey’s July 2016 failed military uprising, the leadership initiated purges and reforms aimed at ensuring the military’s future loyalty, but raising questions about the operational efficiency and effectiveness of the newly configured Turkish Armed Forces. Two subsequent cross-border operations into northern Syria provide valuable insight: Operation Euphrates Shield, lasting
۲۶ مارس ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Metin Gurcan
Articles & Testimony
How Will Turkey’s Purchase of Russia’s S-400 Air Defense System Affect Ties with NATO?
An expert on Turkish politics expresses the view that alliance pushback may be weaker than in the past, but that the purchase could devastate U.S.-Turkish ties.
۲۱ مارس ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Why Turkey’s Local Elections Matter
Many major jurisdictions are up for grabs, with potentially weighty foreign policy implications if Erdogan maintains his current coalition’s hardline nationalist trajectory.
۲۰ مارس ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Murat Yetkin
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A Turkish ‘Safe Zone’ in Syria: Prospects and Policy Implications
Establishing such a zone in the northeast would give Ankara and the United States a unique opportunity to work together, provided Washington can convince its European allies to participate as well.
۱ مارس ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Cyprus Gas Discovery Could Be an East Mediterranean Game-Changer
The latest success will encourage more exploration in the area, but probably more regional rivalry as well.
۱ مارس ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Simon Henderson

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