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ترکیه

Policy Analysis on ترکیه

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Brief Analysis
Turkey’s Rising Wave of Social Protests
This year’s Istanbul election and last year’s move to a presidential system have unified and galvanized the opposition, raising questions about Erdogan’s next move.
۱۲ اوت ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG
Checking the YPG’s ascendance in Syria could bring the PKK back to the negotiating table, ultimately making Turkey more amenable to Kurdish enclaves across the border.
۷ اوت ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Growing Anti-Syrian Sentiment in Turkey
Refugees are being blamed for the country’s economic and social troubles, resulting in online hate speech, vigilante violence, and further pressure on the government to change the status quo in north Syria.
۵ اوت ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s Energy Confrontation with Cyprus
While much of the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, tensions are also mounting rapidly in the East Mediterranean.
۲۴ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Why the U.S. Ejected Turkey from F-35 Fighter Jet Program, and Why the Turbulence Will Only Grow
The future of the bilateral relationship looks bleak after years of strategic divergence on crises in Iraq and Syria.
۲۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Erbil Shooting: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Policy
If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.
۱۸ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Video
Will Turkey's Purchase of Russian Missiles Rupture U.S. Ties?
How have relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States come to the brink of historic crisis?
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
An Underdog Challenges Erdogan
The president, a former Istanbul mayor, has a rival in the current one.
۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib
As the latest regime offensive continues, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing to overcrowded border camps, furthering Assad’s strategy of emptying as much of the Sunni Arab population as possible.
۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Video
Brief Analysis
The Istanbul Revote: What Happens Next?
Four experts discuss the opposition's landslide victory and its implications for Turkish politics generally and President Erdogan's future specifically.
۲۶ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Lisel Hintz
  • Kemal Kirisci
  • Alan Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Presidential System Isn’t Working. The Istanbul Election Shows Why.
Turkey is too diverse demographically, too big economically, and too complicated politically to be governed from a presidential palace.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey and Russia Are Not Friends, Despite Appearances
The truth is that Ankara feels threatened by Moscow, but security concerns, mistrust of the West, and an inability to secure American missiles left Erdogan searching for an alternative.
۱۶ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Andy Taylor
In-Depth Reports
Erdogan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East
The president has sought to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era reach and break ranks with traditional Western allies, but such an approach carries heavy risk of isolation, strategic miscalculation, and lost opportunities for the Turkish people.
۱۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Race for Istanbul: Erdogan’s Plan A and B
Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.
۱۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Failure on the Nile
How Turkey’s president went from being a regional Islamist leader in the Arab Spring to sharing Qatar’s role as the Middle East’s odd man out.
۲۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
If Syria Safe-Zone Talks Fail: How the SDF Might Respond to Turkish Intervention
The Kurdish-led force cannot hold the northeast on its own, and withdrawing coalition support would bolster Assad and Moscow’s interests.
۱۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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  • John Holland-McCowan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
No More Turkish Veto on Idlib Offensive?
Ankara’s calculations about the rebel province appear to have shifted, though it still hopes to use the situation as leverage for constraining the YPG and preventing another refugee influx.
۱۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
تحلیل کوتاه
التحكيم في مسألة خط أنابيب العراق-تركيا: تفادي الكارثة في السياسات
يشكّل خط الأنابيب بين العراق وتركيا ملكية مشتركة بين الدولتين ويخضع للاتفاقيات الدولية. ومن وجهة نظر أنقرة، تسمح هذه الاتفاقيات لـ «إقليم كردستان العراق» بالوصول إلى خط الأنابيب مباشرةً، لكنّ بغداد ترى الأمور بطريقة مختلفة وقد رفعت دعوى على تركيا أمام "غرفة التجارة الدولية". وبينما تُشرف هيئة التحكيم في هذه
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • مایکل نایتز
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Will Win in Istanbul, and What This Means for Turkish Democracy
Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.
۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Turkish Rupture Could Cause a Fissure in NATO
A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.
۱۶ آوریل ۲۰۱۹
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay

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