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Articles & Testimony
Why the U.S. Ejected Turkey from F-35 Fighter Jet Program, and Why the Turbulence Will Only Grow
The future of the bilateral relationship looks bleak after years of strategic divergence on crises in Iraq and Syria.
Jul 22, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Yezidi Minorities Continue to Suffer after the Defeat of the Caliphate
The reign of terror that ISIS conducted in their self-proclaimed caliphate shocked the world’s conscious to the point that sworn enemies marshaled their resources to defeat the threat. Yet as Kelley E. Currie, senior State Department appointee and representative to the United Nations Economic and Social Council, stated at a
Jul 22, 2019
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Diliman Abdulkader
Articles & Testimony
High Stakes for Trump and Pakistan's Khan: Afghanistan, India, Nukes and Money
The military elite who decide much of Pakistan's foreign policy view Afghan stabilization efforts as a strategic opportunity for arch rival India to encircle them.
Jul 22, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraq Is the Best Option to Mediate Between Iran and the United States
After the June 13 meeting between Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Japanese Prime Minister Abe failed to yield fruitful results, it has become clear that the United States and Iran have reached a deadlock without much of a solution on the horizon. Nevertheless, it is widely agreed among observers
Jul 19, 2019
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Farhad Alaaldin
Brief Analysis
Sanctions on Iraqi Political Figures: Shaping the Impact and Message
The United States is now designating politicians who place personal or Iranian interests above the needs of the Iraqi people, but these efforts could go awry if locals don’t understand the justification or consequences.
Jul 19, 2019
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Erbil Shooting: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Policy
If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.
Jul 18, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Tensions Between Egypt and Turkey Are on the Rise
Egypt and Turkey are the two largest countries in the eastern Mediterranean; along with Iran, they make up nearly half of the total population of the Middle East. The two states also possess what are considered the two strongest conventional military powers in the Middle East. Moreover, Cairo and Ankara
Jul 17, 2019
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Mohamed Maher
Irina Tsukerman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Fate of Tel Rifaat Hangs in the Balance
On July 2, the Turkish army reportedly shelled Kurdish forces in the Northern Aleppo region of Tel Rifaat, following a similar incident in mid-June where the Turkish Defense Ministry reported killing ten Kurdish soldiers in retaliation for the death of a Turkish soldier. These recent intermittent skirmishes reflect how Tel
Jul 17, 2019
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Baraa Sabri
Articles & Testimony
Will Iran 'Break Out' for a Nuclear Weapon, and What Can Trump Do?
Seeing that the president wants out of “endless Middle East wars,” Tehran seems to think that raising the pressure might get him to back off.
Jul 16, 2019
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Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Lebanese are Tired of Hosting Syrian Refugees
A delegation of the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) just returned from a trip to Lebanon, where it met with over a hundred representatives of government, business, civil society, and academia while also visiting a Syrian refugee settlement in the Bekaa Valley. During the trip, I and other members
Jul 16, 2019
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Edward Gabriel
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran’s High Strategic Value for Turkey
In a time where the balance of the Middle East is in flux, regional leaders and the international community alike should be closely following the relationship between Turkey and Iran. While the relationship between Teheran and Ankara has historically been troubled, mutual interests have sprouted newfound cooperation between the two
Jul 16, 2019
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Firas Elias
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
MbZ and the Future Leadership of the UAE
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Attempts by the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates, Muhammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan, to consolidate power and pursue an activist regional policy have drawn criticism from other emirates, including Dubai. If a compromise candidate eventually emerges to lead the UAE, it could reshape the country’s posture in the region as well as relations with the United States.
Jul 16, 2019
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Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Response to Britain’s Tanker Seizure
Recent Iranian rhetoric and actions point to further retaliation, but taking that route may lead to the same strategic miscalculations and international intervention that cost the country so dearly in the 1980s.
Jul 15, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Kurdistan’s New Government
After months of delay, the new cabinet must get up to speed quickly in order to put KRG-federal relations on solid legal ground, curtail Iranian influence, and unify the Peshmerga.
Jul 11, 2019
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Bilal Wahab
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Disinformation against Religious Minorities
What are the consequences of the Iranian government's massive, systematic campaign to spread disinformation about religious minorities through social and traditional media? Watch an in-depth conversation with leading scholars.
Jul 10, 2019
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Simin Kargar
Azadeh Pourzand
Hamid Gharagozloo
Articles & Testimony
There’s a Deal to Be Had Between the U.S. and Iran
If Tehran agrees to extend the JCPOA’s sunset provisions and curtail its activity in Syria and Lebanon, Washington may be willing to lift the nuclear sanctions and create a special-purpose vehicle.
Jul 10, 2019
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Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
“Miss Me Yet?” What the UAE Drawdown Means For the United States and UN in Yemen
At the end of June, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) used a combination of leaks and statements to communicate that it was beginning to fold its large military intervention in support of the internationally-recognized—if rather undeserving—government of Yemen. With the UAE only just having signaled its intention to drawdown in
Jul 10, 2019
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Normalizing Security in the Nineveh Plains
The coming weeks will show whether real changes have occurred, or whether the Iraqi government is instead trying to save face by claiming success.
Jul 9, 2019
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iran Crisis Moves Into Cyberspace
Iranian cyber actors are showing signs of battlespace preparation, so the United States should heed the lessons of past attacks and bolster its defensive posture.
Jul 9, 2019
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Micah Loudermilk
Video
Will Turkey's Purchase of Russian Missiles Rupture U.S. Ties?
How have relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States come to the brink of historic crisis?
Jul 9, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
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