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Fikra Forum
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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Kuwaiti Public, Including Shia Minority, Still Anti-Iran—but Wary of Conflict
As tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, oil-rich Kuwait, sandwiched between Iran and Iraq at the mouth of the Gulf, is a key U.S. partner right in the potential line of fire. It is also the most internally politically active country of all six GCC Arab monarchies, with
Jan 3, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
How the Soleimani Assassination Could Pave the Way for a New Deal with Iran
What if U.S. officials took advantage of the moment and asked a trusted third party like Oman or Switzerland to test whether Tehran is ready for a quiet diplomatic initiative?
Jan 3, 2020
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Does Soleimani’s Death Matter? Findings from a 2019 Workshop
Last year’s Washington Institute forum on post-Soleimani succession suggested that the IRGC would lose a unique coordinating capability and its most important totem once he left the scene.
Jan 3, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqi Reactions to Soleimani’s Assassination
After reports of Qassem Soleimani’s death were confirmed, Twitter videos emerged depicting cheering Iraqi protesters heading to Baghdad’s Tahrir Square to celebrate the death of a man who had until recently been deeply involved in Iraqi politics. However, whatever the public demonstrations suggest, the reality is that the Iraqi public
Jan 3, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
Iran Retains Its Ability to Launch Terror Attacks Despite Assassination
Soleimani had multiple deputies with years of experience, and the Iranian security establishment has a tradition of rewarding brazen initiative.
Jan 3, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
U.S.-Iraq Relations at a Crossroads: Policy Options
Washington should smartly employ tougher love in the coming months, working with other nations and Iraqi moderates to improve the country’s chances of recovery from militia rule.
Jan 2, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Tight Rope: Deterring Militias While Supporting Reformists in Iraq
In November 2019, I wrote a piece for Fikra Forum titled “ U.S. Interests and the Unsustainable Status Quo in Iraq” where I argued the case that the United States needed to adopt a riskier short-term policy in Iraq in order to be on the right—and winning side—of history in
Jan 2, 2020
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Obstacles Still Facing Israel’s Leviathan Gas Field
Regional and commercial challenges require an evolving business plan.
Dec 31, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Escalation in Iraq: How to Limit the Damage and Reestablish Sovereignty
The Iraqi government’s vociferous condemnations of U.S. defensive strikes may just be rhetorical, but they highlight the stakes involved for a country veering ever closer to perpetual Iranian dominance.
Dec 31, 2019
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Bilal Wahab
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Dec 30, 2019
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Simon Henderson
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Sudden Succession Essay Series
Articles & Testimony
Assad Is Growing Stronger Under Trump’s Nonexistent Syria Policy
The Caesar Act will not put an end to the Syrian catastrophe so long as Washington keeps ceding political and military leverage to adversaries who do not care about human rights.
Dec 29, 2019
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Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran Can’t
Congress should offer conditional aid that forces Beirut and Baghdad to respond to their citizens’ grievances, many of which stem from Iranian-sponsored sectarianism, corruption, and violence.
Dec 24, 2019
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Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Sentences in Khashoggi Murder Will Again Test U.S. Relations
The challenge for the kingdom’s Western allies is how to square Riyadh’s announcement with the CIA and UN conclusion that the crown prince himself sanctioned the crime.
Dec 23, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Saudi Poll Shows Just One-Fourth Back Moderate Islam or Count on the United States
The recent terrorist murders by a Saudi cadet at the Pensacola Naval Air Station have revived urgent questions about grassroots Saudi attitudes toward the United States. As luck would have it, new data from a confidential survey conducted inside Saudi Arabia last month provides the answers. And they are not
Dec 19, 2019
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
In a bid to ensure plausible deniability, address internal rivalries, and advance its competition with the West, the Kremlin has increased its use of such contractors in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Dec 19, 2019
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
Dec 19, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
A Decisive Vote for Humanitarian Support in Syria
Renewing the UN cross-border mechanism is crucial to helping millions of needy Syrian civilians, preventing Russia and Assad from weaponizing aid deliveries, and safeguarding future international assistance efforts.
Dec 18, 2019
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Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure
By uniting behind the message that financial aid and punishment will be tied to specific courses of action, the United States, France, and the UN may finally be able to push Beirut into establishing a reform-minded government.
Dec 17, 2019
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
How to Reframe the American-Israeli Alliance in a New Age of Great-Power Competition
Now that China has supplanted terrorism on the list of Washington’s foreign policy priorities, Israel’s relationship with Beijing will have to change.
Dec 17, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Round Three in Israel: Domestic Dynamics and Foreign Policy Implications
The top contenders from round two were unwilling to compromise, but new primary challengers, shifts in voting patterns, and potential plea bargains may make their inflexibility a moot point by March.
Dec 17, 2019
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David Makovsky
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