Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

Israel's Calculus for Reconciliation With Turkey

While the agreement is unlikely to reset relations between two leaders who have profoundly different worldviews, it may catalyze economic and security initiatives that benefit mutual Israeli, Turkish, Palestinian, and U.S. interests.

Jul 1, 2016

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David Makovsky

Articles & Testimony

Turkey at a Crossroads

The following is an excerpt from the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2016. Download the PDF to read Dr. Cagaptay's full contribution. Whether or not Turkey will be able to overcome the multipronged terror threat, social polarization, and political instability will all depend on President Erdogan and his agenda. Erdogan needs to

Jul 1, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan

Tuesday Changed Everything

A discussion of how the Istanbul airport attack will affect Turkey's tourism sector, its war footing against ISIS, its domestic political climate, and other key factors.

Jun 30, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

Turkey's Istanbul Attack Vengeance Will Be Like 'Rain From Hell'

ISIS may be trying to sow domestic suspicion by not claiming responsibility for the airport attack, but the incident could still spur Turkey into full-scale war against the group.

Jun 29, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Turkey's Regional Charm Offensive: Motives and Prospects

After years of foreign policy setbacks, Ankara is trying to mend fences with Israel, Egypt, Iran, and Russia, and the potential implications for the United States are mostly beneficial -- assuming the Turks can actually pull it off.

Jun 27, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay
James Jeffrey

Articles & Testimony

Where Does Erdogan Want to Take Turkey?

The leader's distorted view of the Ottoman past may dictate whether the country further embraces Islamization.

Jun 15, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Assessing the New AKP Cabinet

Turkey's incoming government reflects the regionalization of political power, outsize influence from religious schools, and the sidelining of Kurds and women, as well as pointing to the emergence of an exclusive governing-party system.

May 31, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan

Brief Analysis

The PKK Could Spark Turkish-Russian Military Escalation

Russia and Syria's dormant ties with the group have been reawakened by the civil war, raising the prospect of dangerous weapons proliferation and potential escalation into direct conflict with Turkey.

May 25, 2016

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Andrew J. Tabler
Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Erdogan's Nationalist Path to a Full Presidential System

By further hardening his approach toward Kurdish nationalism at home and in Syria, Erdogan hopes to woo Turkish ultranationalists and legally enshrine his executive power, but his efforts could clash with U.S. policy on the war next door.

May 24, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Turkey's War of Attrition With the Islamic State: The Rocket Threat

Ankara's terrorist adversaries have expanded their destructive reach with mobile rocket launchers and other formidable weapons, so deterring the threat will require a similarly robust Turkish approach to procurement, development, and deployment of various military systems.

May 17, 2016

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Can Kasapoglu

Articles & Testimony

Turkey's King: Erdogan After Davutoglu

If the president continues down his path of personalizing power and hollowing out political and civil institutions, he will endanger the country's longstanding democratic makeup.

May 8, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

Why Turkey Is Unlikely to Alter Its Syria Policy in Wake of Prime Minister's Exit

Davutoglu's departure probably won't change President Erdogan's perception that Turkey has the moral high ground by supporting Sunni rebels in Syria against the Assad regime.

May 6, 2016

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Soner Cagaptay

In-Depth Reports

U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East

Reflecting broad foreign policy themes dating to World War I, U.S. grand strategy in the Middle East since the Cold War has focused on establishing and managing a global security system to contain and deter outside threats. Given Eurasia's demographic and economic/technical strength, a dominant power or powers arising from

May 3, 2016

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James Jeffrey
Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

Possibilities for a Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement

The prospect of warmer Iranian-Turkish ties is manageable so long as the United States maintains the intent and capability to promote regional security, and assuming Ankara continues to balance any such rapprochement with its ties to the West, Israel, and Arab states.

May 1, 2016

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James Jeffrey

Brief Analysis

Israel and Turkey Approaching Reconciliation Amid Policy Challenges

Normalization negotiations seem closer than ever to conclusion and should be encouraged, but significant differences remain, especially on Gaza, Hamas, and Egypt, and they will likely prevent a return to past bilateral intimacy.

Apr 19, 2016

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Michael Herzog
Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Fighting in the Caucasus: Implications for the Wider Region

As Moscow continues its pattern of fomenting conflict and carving up countries in its near-abroad, the United States and regional players such as Iran, Israel, and Turkey will once again feel the ripples.

Apr 7, 2016

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Brenda Shaffer

In-Depth Reports

Ascent of the PYD and the SDF

In this well-documented Research Note, Barak Barfi explores the evolution of the PYD -- the preeminent Kurdish faction in the Syrian conflict -- and its relationship to U.S. objectives.

Apr 7, 2016

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Barak Barfi

Brief Analysis

Is Armenia the Next Turkish-Russian Flashpoint?

Although Turkey and Russia are unlikely to erupt into direct conflict, a regional hotspot like Armenia-Azerbaijan could drag Ankara into active engagement, giving the Kremlin ample room to exploit Turkey's sensitive position.

Apr 4, 2016

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Can Kasapoglu

Fikra Forum

Repercussions of the Saudi-Iranian Conflict on North Africa

March 31, 2016 The Iranian Shura Council and Assembly of Experts elections in February have resulted in gains for moderate reformists in a peaceful political contest. The elections’ contrast to the region’s political turmoil brings to mind the ironic words of British Parliamentarian Jock Bruce-Gardyne. In 1966, the politician described

Mar 31, 2016

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Nouh El Harmouzi

Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

Turkey’s Securitization of the Kurdish Issue: A Dangerous Strategy

March 31, 2016 The recent attack in Ankara, killing 34 people and injuring dozens more, has been quickly blamed on the PKK, even as a few days later the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) a break-away faction of PKK, claimed responsibility. The attack was only the latest in a series of

Mar 31, 2016

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Maurizio Geri

Supported by the

Turkish Research Program

Since its inception in 1995, The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program has established itself as the most influential center in Washington for research and information on Turkey -- a predominantly Muslim, secular, and democratic U.S. ally.

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Soner Cagaptay

Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Senior Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Policy Analysis on Turkey

Turkish Research Program

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