Syria

Recognizing the various spheres of influence in Syria and working with its neighbors to stabilize each piece of the puzzle could be a vital first step toward putting it back together again.

The group produces much more than execution videos, and examining its propaganda on topics such as military affairs, governance, preaching, and moral policing is key to understanding why individuals spread its message or join its ranks.

In addition to Qods Force supervision of Shiite fighters from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other countries, the IRGC is deploying more of its own Ground Forces personnel to Syria in direct combat roles.

Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.

The group's establishment of a territorial "caliphate," the emergence of an unprecedented foreign fighter phenomenon, and the rise of violent extremist social media and lone offender attacks have fundamentally transformed the global terrorist threat.

Washington has several options beyond a major ground commitment, including more drones and special forces in Iraq, a true effort to arm and organize the Syrian opposition, and a willingness to recognize longer-term regional threats posed by al-Qaeda affiliates and Iran.

Damascus faces a long decline unless major factors change relating to regime strategy, additional resources from allies, or a collapse in rebel unity of effort.

There is nothing mystical about ISIS as a defensive force: where it has succeeded, it has done so almost entirely due to the absence of effective opposition, not because of its inherent strength.

Washington's efforts to increase security assistance are helpful, but Lebanon will remain a priority target for ISIS and other Sunni terrorist groups so long as Hezbollah continues fighting for the Assad regime in Syria.