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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Brief Analysis
A Year Since Baghuz, the Islamic State Is Neither Defeated nor Resurging (Yet)
Although attack statistics have declined, the continued lack of stable governance in Diyala and Deir al-Zour shows that Washington and its partners have not absorbed the lessons provided by previous insurgencies.
Mar 25, 2020
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Role in Idlib and Beyond: Perspectives from Syria
How can the United States mitigate the worsening humanitarian crisis in Idlib, and what do Syrian activists on the ground want from Washington?
Mar 20, 2020
◆
  • Raed al-Saleh
  • Omar Alshogre
  • Rajaa Altalli
  • Naomi Kikoler
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Help Ease Idlib’s Catastrophe
Washington needs to cooperate with Europe on forcing Damascus into serious political negotiations, help Turkey create a no-fly zone, and stop Russia and China from using their veto power at the UN.
Mar 14, 2020
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
The Crisis in Idlib
Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.
Mar 11, 2020
◆
  • Dana Stroul
Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
Mar 6, 2020
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
Mar 5, 2020
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now
Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.
Mar 4, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis
Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.
Mar 2, 2020
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
‘Fighters Without Borders’: Forecasting New Trends in Iran Threat Network Foreign Operations Tradecraft
To hide its fingerprints on future attacks against U.S. interests, the regime is focusing on its regional 'Shia Liberation Army' and potentially seeking to radicalize lone actors.
Feb 27, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics
If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.
Feb 26, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment
A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election.
Feb 19, 2020
Articles & Testimony
Ultra Extremism Among Tunisian Jihadis Within the Islamic State
A deeper look into how one of the organization's Tunisian factions in Syria adopted and practiced an even more radical distortion of Islamic thought than its parent group.
Feb 18, 2020
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s ‘Mini Empire’ in Libya and Syria
A deep dive into the evolution of Turkey’s Middle East policy and the mixed results it has had in two Russian-fueled conflict zones.
Feb 12, 2020
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s Options for Pressuring Russia in Idlib Are Limited
Weighty domestic concerns and geopolitical fears will likely keep Erdogan from pushing too hard against the current Russian-Syrian campaign, but the parties may yet broker a temporary deal to carve the province in half.
Feb 11, 2020
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe
Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises.
Feb 10, 2020
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Video
Brief Analysis
The Persistent Threat from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda: The View from the UN
The head of the UN team charged with monitoring each group assesses their prospects for bouncing back and recommends further steps that governments can take to counter them.
Feb 6, 2020
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  • Edmund Fitton-Brown
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Idlib and Its Environs:
Narrowing Prospects for a Rebel Holdout
During the war years in Syria, the northwest, specifically Idlib, has become a site of heavy internal displacement. Observers on the ground recognize the green buses traveling to Idlib carrying migrants who have refused reconciliation agreements with the Damascus regime. Since around 2014, a range of jihadist, Islamist, and Salafi
Feb 5, 2020
◆
  • Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Economic Crisis Sparks Rare Protests in Regime Territory
Besides highlighting Assad’s financial mismanagement, the recent unrest gives the international community a genuine opportunity to push for transition while bolstering the more prosperous local administration in the northeast.
Jan 31, 2020
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
Video
Brief Analysis
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani
Will the various regional militias once controlled by Qasem Soleimani continue to take sometimes-unwanted direction from Tehran after his death? Read or watch a spirited conversation with three experts.
Jan 30, 2020
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Phillip Smyth
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Video
Brief Analysis
The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications
Three leading experts assess the current balance of power and its potential effects on counterterrorism, refugee resettlement, governance, economics, and other crucial issues.
Jan 29, 2020
◆
  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
  • Gonul Tol
  • Dana Stroul

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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