The Syria Crisis: A Washington Institute Guide

As members of Congress consider President Obama’s request to undertake military action against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, The Washington Institute presents the following guide to help Americans better understand the crisis in Syria.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in2011, our experts have conducted extensive research and have traveled frequently to the region to learn first-hand about the conflict’s political, social, economic, and military realities. As a result, The Institute has become an important source of information for Administration officials, the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, and the media. The articles and media appearances below are culled from the Institute’s most recent work. Topics covered include: Why Assad used chemical weapons; a look inside Syria's collapse; the stakes for U.S. credibility; Iran's role; U.S. options for striking Syria; the view from Israel; how Assad and his wife think; and Hezbollah's game-changing role.

Why Did Assad Use Chemical Weapons?

Why would Bashar al-Assad flout international law and defy U.S. warnings to use chemical weapons against men, women, and children? And the incident in East Ghouta on August 21 was likely not the first.

TWI in the Media

Andrew J. Tabler: The Situation Room (CNN) and The Lead (CNN)
Jeffrey White: NewsHour (PBS)

Implications of Possible Chemical Weapons Use in Syria by Michael Herzog, Michael Knights, Andrew J. Tabler, and Jeffrey White

Cutting Through the Fog of War in East Ghouta by Andrew J. Tabler

Polarized International Reactions to Syrian Chemical Attack by David Pollock

Dystopian Syria

Syria has effectively collapsed into a patchwork of spheres of influence dominated by different religious, ethnic and political groups. Who are these groups? Are they indigenous or foreign? What are their capabilities? What would be the impact of a U.S. raid?

TWI in the Media

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Andrew J. Tabler: NewsHour (PBS), The Lead (CNN), All Things Considered (NPR)
Andrew J. Tabler, Jeffrey White, and Michael Eisenstadt (C-SPAN)

Is Syria Finished? (The Mark News) by Dennis Ross

The Day After Assad Wins: The Hard Truths About Post-War Syria.(Foreign Affairs) by Andrew J. Tabler

Syria's Military Opposition: How Effective, United, or Extremist? by Jeffrey White, Andrew J. Tabler, and Aaron Y. Zelin

Beyond the Redline: U.S. Opportunities with Syria's Armed Opposition by Andrew J. Tabler, Jeffrey White, and Michael Eisenstadt

Syria's Collapse and How Washington Can Stop It (Foreign Affairs) by Andrew J. Tabler

(See also: Al-Qaeda Announces an Islamic State in Syria; The Syrian Islamic Front: A New Extremist Force; How Syria's Civil War Became a Holy Crusade; and International Jihad and the Syrian Conflict)

U.S. Credibility Is at Stake

Would failure to punish Assad for using chemical weapons and crossing an American “red line” undermine U.S. credibility -- and power -- in the region and around the world?

TWI in the Media

Dennis Ross: Andrea Mitchell Reports (MSNBC)

U.S. Credibility on Iran at Stake in Syria (Foreign Policy) by Michael Singh

If Bombs Hit Damascus, Israel Looks to Tehran (Tablet) by David Makovsky

Syria's Humanitarian Crisis: A Moral and Strategic Issue. by David Pollock and Andrew J. Tabler

Should the U.S. and Its Allies Intervene Militarily in Syria? (CQ Researcher) by Andrew J. Tabler

The Iran Connection

Iran is the largest regional supporter of the Assad regime and has the most to lose if it falls. What are the implications of a U.S. strike for Tehran and for preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout?

Blocking Action on Syria Makes an Attack on Iran More Likely (Washington Post) by Dennis Ross

Attacking Syria Is the Best Way to Deal with Iran (New York Times) by Andrew J. Tabler

Syria as a Spoiler in Iran's Foreign Policy by Mehdi Khalaji

Target: Syria

What can and should the United States target in a military strike against Assad’s forces?

TWI in the Media

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Jeffrey White: NewsHour (PBS)
Michael Eisenstadt: All Things Considered (NPR)

Bombing Syria: What's the Goal? (Politico) by Robert Satloff

Taking Punitive Military Action Against the Syrian Regime by Jeffrey White

All the Tyrant's Men: Chipping Away at the Assad Regime's Core by Grace Abuhamad and Andrew J. Tabler

Forget the Red Line and Engage in Syria (New York Daily News) By David Schenker

Striking Syria: Lessons from the Israeli Experience by Michael Herzog

Linking Targets to Political Objectives in Syria by Chandler P. Atwood and Michael Knights

(See also: Syrian Measures to Mitigate the Effects of a U.S. Strike; Sending the Right Message in Syria: Lessons from Past Airstrikes; Arming the Syrian Rebels: Sliding Toward Iraq or Inching Toward Stability?)

Israel in the Crosshairs

Will the Assad regime or Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy, strike Israel to retaliate for a U.S. attack?

TWI in the Media

David Makovsky Morning Edition (NPR)

Israel's Next Front: Syria (Tablet) by David Schenker

Syria's Forgotten Front (New York Times) by David Pollock

As Syria Crumbles, Israel Prepares for Instability by Michael Herzog

Inside the Minds of Bashar and Asma al-Assad

During his 14 years of journalism in Syria, Andrew J. Tabler gained unusual access to President Assad and his wife, Asma. He has provided western journalists with unique insight into how Syria’s First Couple thinks.

TWI in the Media

Andrew J. Tabler: The Today Show (NBC), The World (PRI), and CNN

Hezbollah: The Game-Changer

Supported and directed by Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah has thrown its weight behind the Assad regime, shifting the military balance.

TWI in the Media

Matthew Levitt with Amb. Frederic C. Hof, C-SPAN

Hezbollah's Declaration of War in Syria: Military Implications by Jeffrey White

The Hezbollah Connection in Syria and Iran. (CFR.Org) by Matthew Levitt

Hizb Allah's Gambit in Syria (CTC Sentinel) by Matthew Levitt and Aaron Y. Zelin