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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
Secretive Agenda for Pakistani Military Visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Official mentions of “military and defense cooperation” could include sharing of nuclear and missile technology.
Jan 9, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Making Iran’s Support for Russia More Costly
To foster doubts about the wisdom of deepening the relationship, Washington should stoke longstanding Iranian skepticism toward Russia and work with Europe to sanction additional entities involved in the drone program.
Jan 5, 2023
◆
  • Henry Rome
Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.
Brief Analysis
Assessing Xi Jinping’s Middle East Trip
His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.
Dec 22, 2022
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Carol Silber
  • Eric Feely
  • Sarah Cahn
  • Sude Akgundogdu
  • Lauren von Thaden
  • Faris Almaari
Saudi Arabia Flag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Saudi Poll: Some Surprises on the U.S., Iran, Israel, Oil, and More
Saudis voiced their thoughts on global partners, internal dynamics, and regional issues, including opinions on the Iranian protests and nuclear dilemma.
Dec 16, 2022
◆
  • David Pollock
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Proliferation Strategy: U.S. Policy Options
Three experts discuss how Washington might feasibly attempt to steer Tehran away from actively pursuing nuclear weapons.
Dec 16, 2022
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Mahsa Rouhi
  • Suzanne Maloney
Articles & Testimony
Are the Saudis Reconsidering Their Nuclear Posture?
Various historical and recent factors suggest that the nuclear dimension of Gulf politics is again in flux amid a deepening world energy crisis.
Dec 12, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh
Brief Analysis
What Saudi Arabia Wants from President Xi’s Visit
China is already one of the kingdom’s major commercial partners and a significant supplier of military and nuclear technology, but Riyadh wants more of each.
Dec 6, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
  • Carol Silber
Eisenstadt monograph cover; U.S. "Plumbbob Hood" nuclear weapons test, 1957
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy:
Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus
Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward.
Nov 29, 2022
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Lieutenant General Asim Munir, newly appointed as the new Chief Of Army Staff of Pakistan, meets with President Arif Alvi in Islamabad - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Pakistan’s New Military Leader and the Gulf
For U.S. and Gulf officials alike, the appointment of a potential military dictator in the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic state bears close watching.
Nov 28, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Venezuelan and Iranian flags flying during a state visit in Tehran - source: Reuters
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela
Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.
Nov 17, 2022
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
New EU Sanctions Indicate More Willingness to Hold Tehran Accountable
Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.
Nov 15, 2022
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  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Brief Analysis
Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting
A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.
Nov 15, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone in use by Russian forces in an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War
Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.
Nov 10, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
Brief Analysis
Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?
Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.
Oct 25, 2022
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  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’
The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.
October 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Adnan al-Gabarni
  • Casey Coombs
Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy
U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.
Oct 6, 2022
◆
  • Henry Rome
Articles & Testimony
Letting Iran Go Nuclear
Tehran's program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it.
Sep 23, 2022
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb
Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
Sep 9, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
In Rejecting Iran Nuclear Deal, Israeli Rivals Are of One Mind
Lapid and Netanyahu both oppose resuming the JCPOA—but they would be unlikely to say otherwise publicly even if they supported the latest proposals.
Sep 7, 2022
◆
  • Neri Zilber
Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021
Brief Analysis
Iran Garnering Internal Support for a Potential Nuclear Deal
Although it is still unclear if the Supreme Leader will approve the necessary compromises, regime officials are maximizing their room for maneuver by preparing the country either way—assuming the economy doesn’t force their hand.
Aug 22, 2022
◆
  • Omer Carmi

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome was a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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