Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Articles & Testimony
Although the immediate military horizon remains blurry, the longer-term energy crunch may be survivable, albeit painful.
According to “informed” speculation in the Western media, a Russian military action probably will be accompanied by a range of tactics to confuse Ukraine’s government and its allies. A key ingredient in the mix will be energy disruption. Within Ukraine, widespread power cuts can be expected, either because of sabotage or caution, pre-empting likely transmission failures. Further afield, in central and Eastern Europe, electricity supplies are very vulnerable. Russian natural gas, which usually accounts for 40 percent of Europe’s gas use, comes via several pipelines but two of the most significant pass through Ukraine. Germany, Poland and Hungary each are more than 50 percent dependent on gas imports from Russia. Austria, Finland and Lithuania are 100 percent dependent...