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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking
The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."
Feb 4, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Iranian military leaders inspect drones.
Brief Analysis
Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics
Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.
Jan 29, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Oman’s Sultan Caps First Year by Appointing Heir and New Military Leadership
Sultan Haitham’s latest decrees elevated his son to heir, sacked commanders, and spotlighted his brother’s influence, but the government’s main focus is still squarely on economic reform.
Jan 28, 2021
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  • Elana DeLozier
CENTCOM seal
Brief Analysis
Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light
The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.
Jan 28, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
  • Mark Montgomery
Brief Analysis
Baghdad Bombing Spurs Major Intelligence and Military Reshuffle
The Iraqi government continues to sharpen the leadership of various commands and bolster civilian control, giving the U.S.-led coalition more leverage to fight the Islamic State with a light footprint.
Jan 26, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
What Did the Confirmation Hearings Reveal About Biden’s Middle East Policy?
Antony Blinken, Avril Haines, and Lloyd Austin responded at length to congressional questions about the Iran nuclear deal, the Yemen war, Arab-Israel normalization, and other pressing regional issues.
Jan 22, 2021
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  • Ilari Papa
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in 2020
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s First 200 Days: The Security Agenda
Many of the administration’s early Middle East security efforts will boil down to crisis management, but new frameworks like the Abraham Accords may provide opportunities to address longer-term problems.
Jan 20, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Changing of the Guard: New Iraqi Militia Trends and Responses
In the year since their most iconic leaders were killed, Iran-backed militias in Iraq have been changing in crucial ways, providing rich insights into how Baghdad and its international partners should approach them in 2021.
Jan 19, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
Articles & Testimony
Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions
Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.
Jan 19, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?
The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.
Jan 15, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Christine McVann
Brief Analysis
Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging
Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.
Jan 14, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
UAVs and the Abraham Accords: New Horizons for Sinai Peacekeeping
Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.
Jan 13, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Designation of Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Fadak
The latest sanctions against a senior leader in the Iranian-backed terrorist militia are a reminder that such figures cannot slip onto the political spectrum merely by changing their job title.
Jan 13, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
New Iranian Bill Aims to Officialize a Policy of Avenging Soleimani and Destroying Israel
In addition to prohibiting any negotiations over Iran’s military power or regional ambitions, the legislation would oblige the government to work toward evicting the United States from the Middle East and destroying Israel within twenty years.
Jan 12, 2021
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s First Speech of 2021: Reemphasizing U.S. Weakness, Iranian Self-Reliance
Although the Supreme Leader left room for Biden to return to the nuclear deal and dialed down the vengeful rhetoric, his main message was that Iran cannot trust Washington when it comes to economic matters, security issues, or even coronavirus vaccines.
Jan 8, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Leveraging U.S. Sanctions on Faleh al-Fayyad
The Biden administration should embrace the new sanctions against the civilian head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, a decision that is supported by strong evidence of human rights abuses and can help hold other violators accountable.
Jan 8, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Russia Has the Edge in Managed Competition with Turkey
Although Moscow and Ankara are pursuing different aims in Syria, Libya, and the South Caucasus, they have managed to avoid direct confrontation.
Jan 7, 2021
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East
Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.
Jan 6, 2021
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  • Pierre Morcos
Iran warhead on Iran map
In-Depth Reports
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks:
Openings and Obstacles
A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.
Jan 5, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
◆ Transition 2021
Articles & Testimony
Why an Iran Attack Could Be Biden’s “Hour One” Crisis
Tehran and its proxies may wait until after inauguration to take any action, potentially leaving Biden to decide how to balance the safety of American personnel with the chance for reengagement.
Jan 2, 2021
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  • Michael Knights

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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