Iraq

Policy Analysis on Iraq

Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani in 2022 - source: Wikimedia Commons

Sudani’s Wobbly Balancing Act Between Tehran and Washington

Although it is still too early to write the prime minister off as an Iranian lackey, he is on a familiar trajectory for Iraqi governments: doing the minimum necessary to prevent deterioration with Washington while satisfying the voracious demands of his Iran-backed partners.

Jan 27, 2023

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David Schenker

Akram Kaabi meets Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Bogdanov in Moscow in December 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Akram Kaabi’s Visit to Moscow and Its Aftermath

Russia now feels emboldened to openly host Iraqi "resistance" leaders with no government role—including designated terrorists—to discuss their shared interest in confronting the West and working together in Syria and Iraq.

Jan 27, 2023

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Erik Yavorsky

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Transnational Muqawama Show Disapproval Via Warithuun Attack on al-Tanf

With probable IRGC-QF acquiescence, a militia facade group struck U.S. targets in Syria to register its defiance against a possible extension of the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Jan 24, 2023

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Fikra Forum

What Do Iran’s Protests Mean for Iraq and the Kurdistan Region?

Internal instability in Iran may cause significant religious, economic, and political repercussions across the border in Iraq.

Jan 17, 2023

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Zubir R. Ahmed
Nawzad Shukri

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Spokesmen Reflect on Sudani Inviting U.S. Forces to Remain

Asaib Ahl al-Haq is signaling pragmatism, while Kataib Hezbollah is contorting its arguments to allow it to play along, albeit without explicitly accepting a U.S. military presence.

Jan 17, 2023

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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Fighters of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), walk together near Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province - source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

Turkish Drone Strikes and Building Concerns About Washington in Syria’s Autonomous Administration

Some U.S. allies believe the Biden administration has been noticeably muted regarding Turkey's escalations in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Jan 11, 2023

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Baraa Sabri

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Lauds "Resistance Government" in Iraq

Pro-militia parliamentarians and journalists have become increasingly open about what they expect the Sudani government's role to be: a cover for the muqawama.

Jan 11, 2023

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.

Brief Analysis

Assessing Xi Jinping’s Middle East Trip

His discussions on nuclear proliferation, energy markets, defense cooperation, and other issues offered numerous contrasts with President Biden’s summer meetings in Saudi Arabia—as well as some unexpected criticism of Iran.

Dec 22, 2022

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Grant Rumley
Carol Silber
Eric Feely
Sarah Cahn
Sude Akgundogdu
Lauren von Thaden
Faris Almaari

Fikra Forum

PUK and KDP: A New Era of Conflict

As divisions between the PUK and KDP grow, the Kurdistan region stands to lose its economic and political stability.

Dec 21, 2022

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Nawras Jaff

Leaders assemble for the France-sponsored Baghdad Conference in August 2021 - source: Government of Iraq

Brief Analysis

A Baghdad Summit in Amman: Implications for Regional Stability

The French-sponsored event could be a welcome starting point for wider cooperation between Iraq’s new government and its Arab neighbors—particularly Jordan—but only time will tell whether agreements made there come to fruition.

Dec 19, 2022

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Louis Dugit-Gros
Ghaith al-Omari
Bilal Wahab

Fikra Forum

Activist Haidar al-Zaidi’s Prison Sentence and Growing Pressures on Iraqi Activists

Despite claiming to defend free speech, the Iraqi government is increasingly targeting critics and protestors with arrests and lengthy jail sentences.

Dec 16, 2022

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Azhar Al-Rubaie

Fikra Forum

Perpetrators of Stephen Troell’s Killing in Baghdad Remain Unknown

The circumstances surrounding Troell's death in November clearly indicate that the murder is tied to political infighting and the ongoing issue of armed militias in Iraq.

Dec 15, 2022

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Mohanad Faris

Kurdish protesters killed by the Iranian regime

Video

Brief Analysis

Kurds Against the Iranian Regime: Internal and Regional Implications

Activists and experts discuss what Washington can do to curb Tehran’s violent campaigns against Kurdish populations at home and next door in Iraq.

Dec 13, 2022

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Abdullah Mohtadi
Shukriya Bradost
David Pollock

Articles & Testimony

The Paradox of Centralization and State Fracture in Iraq

Decentralizing power would have been the best way of avoiding a return to Saddam-era authoritarianism and corruption, but Baghdad has favored centralization instead—while simultaneously fissuring the state through sectarian patronage and competition.

Dec 9, 2022

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Bilal Wahab

Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.

Video

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah Turns 40: Implications of the Group’s Internal, Regional, and Strategic Shifts

Four experts assess Hezbollah's impact at home and abroad after decades of political maneuvering, military operations, and criminal activity.

Dec 2, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Mona Fayad
Akeel Abbas

Fikra Forum

KRG and PA: Reprioritizing Governance over Symbolism

Although Palestinian and Kurdish politics have similarly deteriorated into ineffective blame games, fresh U.S. policies focused on institution-building could restore the promise of progress in both cases.

Dec 2, 2022

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Ghaith al-Omari
Bilal Wahab

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

"Sudani Is a General Manager": How Militias View Iraq's New Prime Minister

Militia leaders have stated that his authority will be limited to technocratic and bureaucratic matters, while they will dictate the country's strategic direction and security decisions—including the future U.S. presence in Iraq.

Dec 1, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah and Kaf Celebrate Attacks on Americans

The militia's media channel has been praising past Iranian-aided terrorist acts that killed and wounded U.S. military personnel in Iraq—and linking them to current activities.

Nov 30, 2022

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Michael Knights
Aya Yousuf
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Saving Iraqi Sovereignty: Iran, Turkey and a Fractured Homeland

There are ways for the new prime minister to reinforce Iraq’s independence after a series of foreign attacks, but they will be complex and painful.

Nov 27, 2022

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Bilal Wahab

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

Brief Analysis

Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East

Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.

Nov 22, 2022

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Patrick Clawson

Supported by the

Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Iraq

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