Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Tribal identity supersedes religious affiliation in this community, helping explain why Tehran can expect further challenges from this southwestern province.

Sep 25, 2018

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

Terrorist Attack in Iran a Concern for Saudis, Oil Markets

Iranian disruption of Saudi production could wreak havoc on global oil markets, and be challenging to counter absent clear fingerprints from Tehran.

Sep 24, 2018

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

How Tehran Might React to the Ahvaz Attack

The identity of the assailants remains unresolved, but precedent suggests Iran could respond by targeting minorities at home, assassinating oppositionists abroad, or attempting missile strikes on jihadist areas in Syria or Iraq.

Sep 24, 2018

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Syria Downs a Russian Plane: What Next?

Despite Russia’s anger and false media claims about the incident, Moscow is unlikely to demand that Israel halt its campaign against Iran’s foreign military buildup.

Sep 21, 2018

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Assaf Orion
Anna Borshchevskaya
Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

The Smart Way to Sanction Iranian-Backed Militias in Iraq

Timing is everything, so Washington should coordinate its designations with Baghdad to avoid upsetting the government formation process or throwing Iran a lifeline.

Sep 17, 2018

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Michael Knights
Barbara A. Leaf
Matthew Levitt
Phillip Smyth

Articles & Testimony

Ending Yemen’s War Without Perpetuating a ‘Southern Hezbollah’

If the West could go back in time and prevent Hezbollah from becoming a powerhouse, they would do so in a heartbeat, so they should not miss a similar opportunity with the Houthis.

Sep 12, 2018

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Missile Attack in Iraqi Kurdistan Could Backfire

The IRGC has fired a literal shot across the KRG’s bow, but the brazen violation of Baghdad’s sovereignty may ultimately benefit Tehran’s opponents.

Sep 11, 2018

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Bilal Wahab

Articles & Testimony

The Houthi War Machine: From Guerrilla War to State Capture

The Houthis are more than capable of becoming a ‘southern Hezbollah’ on the Red Sea, a threat that continues to drive the Gulf coalition’s coastal campaign.

Sep 10, 2018

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Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

Survey of Terrorist Groups and Their Means of Financing

A former Treasury official discusses how governments, banks, and other entities need to adapt constantly just to keep up with the evolving financial tactics used by terrorists and their supporters.

Sep 7, 2018

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Katherine Bauer

Brief Analysis

IRGC Navy Leadership Change May Not Signal Imminent Behavior Change

Despite the appointment of a radical anti-American commander, Iran’s naval forces are unlikely to resume frequent provocations without a strategic shift at the very top of the regime.

Sep 5, 2018

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Afghanistan Central to Pompeo’s Meeting with Pakistani PM

President Trump is likely expecting some progress to emerge from this week’s diplomacy, but ongoing concerns with Islamabad’s stances on terrorism, Iran, and other issues mean he shouldn’t hold his breath.

Sep 4, 2018

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Response to Sanctions? Ignore Them

The current Iranian narrative—that economic problems stem from domestic mistakes rather than foreign pressure—complicates the U.S. policy of using sanctions to force change.

Aug 29, 2018

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Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

Responding to Iran's New Weapons and Naval Drills in the Gulf

Renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Tehran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home.

Aug 21, 2018

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

The Great Middle Eastern War of 2019

Far from simply replaying the 2006 Lebanon war, the next conflict on Israel’s northern frontier will likely involve many more actors on multiple fronts, raising unprecedented challenges for escalation management.

Aug 20, 2018

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Nadav Ben Hour
Michael Eisenstadt

A man manipulates cables on a bank of internet data servers - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran's Passive Defense Organization: Another Target for Sanctions

Despite its nominal defense role, the NPDO has helped the regime repress citizens online, a function that Washington should counter with sanctions.

Aug 16, 2018

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Farzin Nadimi

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Articles & Testimony

Iran Is Throwing a Tantrum but Wants a Deal

Defiant warnings aside, Tehran will eventually negotiate with President Trump—as long as Vladimir Putin mediates.

Aug 15, 2018

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Dennis Ross

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Attacks Moderates as Source of Iran's Problems

Hardliners have been exploiting the recurrent unrest as an excuse to lambaste the government’s economic track record, interfere with its prerogatives in various sectors, and double down on the Supreme Leader’s 'resistance' strategy.

Aug 15, 2018

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Mehdi Khalaji

Video

Brief Analysis

Iraq, Iran, and U.S. Strategy: A Trip Report

Three experts offer insights gleaned from their post-election fieldwork and high-level meetings in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Aug 10, 2018

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Geneive Abdo
Nussaibah Younis
Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

Iran's Deadly Diplomats

As investigators dig more deeply into a recent plot, they will soon confirm that it is not a rogue action, but rather the action of a rogue regime.

Aug 8, 2018

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Matthew Levitt

Articles & Testimony

U.S. and Iran Ramp Up War of Words Ahead of Sanctions

Despite the fiery rhetoric, Washington has seen much worse over the course of its long non-relationship with the Islamic Republic.

Jul 30, 2018

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Barbara A. Leaf

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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