Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Sabereen's Suspension (Part 2): Causes and Consequences

The network's hiatus may have been ordered in response to its recent lean toward Russia, or perhaps its role in enabling a controversial arson attack on a political office.

Apr 11, 2022

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Sabereen's Suspension (Part 1): Signs of Dissent and Noncompliance

The network was closed down almost entirely from March 28 to April 8, albeit with one apparent effort by rebellious members to refuse the suspension and blame Iran.

Apr 11, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Why Arab Allies Don’t Trust the U.S. on Ukraine

“This will not stand,” the president said after Iraq invaded Kuwait, but no such fortitude has been evident in response to Iran’s continued aggression.

Apr 9, 2022

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Robert Satloff

Rocket crater, Omar oilfield in Syria, April 6, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Spring Awakening: A New Wave of Militia Strikes or Just a Blip?

Militia groups appear to be increasingly exercising their different kinetic capabilities in Iraq and Syria, but why now?

Apr 8, 2022

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

West’s Weakness Led Putin into Ukraine—and Other Enemies Are Looking for Similar Signs

Moscow has provided a wake-up call about how actors like Iran interpret habitual demonstrations of U.S. inaction.

Apr 8, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Kurdish Infighting Could Undermine a Sovereign Iraqi Government

Shortsighted squabbles between the KDP and PUK may soon wind up sending the country back to elections—and the threat of Iranian political domination.

Apr 5, 2022

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David Schenker

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

From Russia With Love? Sabereen's Ukraine Coverage

Alongside an apparent technical uplift, the militia network's coverage of the crisis has gone far beyond that of even the most pro-Russian outlets in Iraq.

Mar 24, 2022

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Declares His New Year’s Resolutions for Iran

His Nowruz speech largely sidestepped foreign policy and the nuclear negotiations, instead focusing on his vision for making the country more self-reliant via a knowledge-based economy.

Mar 22, 2022

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

The Baghdad-Kurdistan Energy Arena: Policy Opportunities

Washington has many good options for avoiding a Kurdish economic meltdown and turning Iraq’s internal energy dispute into a net win for all players, but it must pursue them quickly.

Mar 22, 2022

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

U.S. Public Diplomacy in Iran: Cutting Costs, Improving Impact

A more effective (and cost-effective) approach would give Iranians the tools they need to bypass regime monitoring, pare down low-impact television programming, and emphasize popular mobile apps.

Mar 21, 2022

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Arash Aalaei
Mehdi Khalaji

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Nujaba's Regime Change Threat to the Kurdistan Democratic Party

With its first Kurdish-language video, the militia has upped the stakes by hinting at regime change in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Mar 21, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Don’t Drop Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from FTO List

On paper, removing the IRGC from just one of several U.S. designation lists would have few if any legal implications—but it's still a terrible idea.

Mar 21, 2022

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

How Much Would Iran Gain Financially from Returning to the JCPOA?

A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.

Mar 16, 2022

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Katherine Bauer
Patrick Clawson

An Iranian Fateh-110 mobile missile launcher on parade

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Cross-Border Strikes: A Pattern in Search of a Policy

The latest strike on Iraq points to a brazen, illegal, and dangerous strategy of exercising leverage via missile and drone attacks—a practice that has gone unchecked for too long.

Mar 15, 2022

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Michael Knights

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon durnig a meeting with Russian President Vladimor Putin in Rihady - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

As the Ukraine Crisis Continues, the West Needs a Middle East Assist

The outcome of Israeli diplomacy, Iranian oil decisions, and Gulf hesitance may play a crucial role in the crisis, particularly if it drags on for months rather than weeks.

Mar 7, 2022

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Simon Henderson

A Ukrainian flag flies at a naval base in Crimea in 2014 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Middle East Responses to the Ukraine Crisis

So far, official statements from the region have ranged from rejecting Russia’s moves to treating them as a natural extension of existing policy.

Updated Mar 4, 2022

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Margaret Dene
Hannah Labow
Carol Silber

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in 2018 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Putin’s War Has Middle Eastern Countries Hedging Their Bets

Facing greater regional demands and limited resources, Washington will have to be more judicious in its obligations and more consistent in following through, lest its assurances fail to assure.

Mar 4, 2022

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David Schenker

Photo showing the image of a masked nurse projected onto Iran's Azadi Monument.

Video

Brief Analysis

COVID in the Middle East: Assessment on the Eve of Year Three

Leading public health experts take stock of the pandemic's regional outlook, discussing which approaches have been most effective in different jurisdictions while acknowledging the persistent limits of COVID data.

Mar 3, 2022

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Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis
Abraham Flaxman
Dr. Kamiar Alaei

United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The UN Resolution on Ukraine: How Did the Middle East Vote?

A comprehensive record of what regional officials said—or didn’t say—about the emergency wartime vote in the General Assembly.

Mar 2, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Game of Drones

After decades of steady development, Tehran now uses drones to complement its missiles and support the broader effort to bring the entire Middle East within its range.

Mar 2, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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