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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Pope Francis departs an airplane
Brief Analysis
The Pope Meets the Ayatollah
The Vatican’s outreach to Iraq is laudable in its goal of decreasing religious violence, but Western officials should be realistic about what engagement with Shia religious leaders can accomplish in the near term.
Mar 3, 2021
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Understanding Iran’s Vast Media Network in Arab Countries
Designating Iranian-linked media outlets can limit their activities, but a more holistic strategy is needed if Washington hopes to effectively counter the regime’s regional propaganda machine.
Mar 2, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
U.S. soldiers at an Iraqi base after a rocket attack by Iran-backed militias
Articles & Testimony
Why Biden’s Airstrikes on Iran Militias Matter
The operation on the Iraq-Syria border could prove more significant than critics allow, but only if the administration keeps showing that there are limits to what it will tolerate in pursuing a new nuclear deal.
Feb 26, 2021
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  • Phillip Smyth
Brief Analysis
Biden’s Warning to Iran and Its Proxies: Implications of the Syria Strike
The administration’s early recourse to armed force may have surprised Tehran, but the proxy tests will continue, suggesting the need for sustained U.S. intelligence support and multilateral engagement with partners.
Feb 26, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Attributing the Erbil Attack: The Role of Open-Source Monitoring
Even Iran’s proxies now have proxies, but authorities can still untangle and attribute their illegal acts through expanded use of rich open-source evidence.
Feb 24, 2021
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  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
Iran's Majlis head Qalibaf, former defense minister Dehghan
In-Depth Reports
The 2021 Iranian Presidential Election A Preliminary Assessment
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Whoever wins, the result will intimate deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future.
Feb 23, 2021
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  • Albert B. Wolf
U.S. and Israeli flags
Brief Analysis
Israel Braces for U.S. Revival of the JCPOA
The best approach for both governments is to internalize lessons from 2015 and enter a comprehensive, discreet discussion focusing on constructive ideas and realistic outcomes.
Feb 22, 2021
◆
  • Michael Herzog
Articles & Testimony
Rocket Attacks on Erbil: Part 2
The U.S. response needs to get more specific, while the KRG and Baghdad need to patch up their urgent security differences and stop entangling them with broader territorial, constitutional, or budgetary issues.
Feb 18, 2021
◆
  • David Pollock
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone in the Oval Office of the White House
Articles & Testimony
Iran Just Handed Biden His First Credibility Test
Proxy rocket attacks in Iraq require a clear response, otherwise the safety of U.S. troops and the prospect of nuclear negotiations will both be in doubt.
Feb 17, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Rockets over Erbil: How to Respond to an Iraqi Militia Outrage
Iran-backed militias took the unprecedented step of rocketing a major city and U.S. base in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Biden administration must quickly find its own formula for restoring deterrence.
Feb 16, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Articles & Testimony
Don’t Expect Russia to Help Save the Iran Deal
In seeking to salvage the JCPOA, Biden should not assume cooperation from Moscow, but instead focus on building a unified strategy that strengthens the U.S. negotiating position.
Feb 16, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Iran Dilemma
Tehran’s nuclear and regional activities are part of a single strategy that aims to paralyze stronger foes, so Washington’s policies for responding to each challenge should likewise overlap considerably.
February 2021
◆
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be
By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.
Feb 11, 2021
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Gideon Saar
Video
Brief Analysis
New Leadership for Israel? A Conversation with Gideon Saar
The New Hope party leader and former Likud minister discusses why he is running in Israel’s March election, how his policies differ from Netanyahu’s, and what his approach will be on key issues such as the Middle East peace process and the Iranian nuclear challenge,
Feb 10, 2021
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  • Gideon Saar
Map "Syria's Borders Are Under External Control"
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Assad Regime Has Failed to Restore Full Sovereignty Over Syria
By ceding control of its borders and airspace to various foreign actors, the regime has essentially resigned itself to a limited but potentially durable existence for the long term.
Feb 10, 2021
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  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Sets Conditions for Iran to Resume Its Nuclear Commitments
By stating initial terms that he knows Washington will not meet right now, the Supreme Leader is once again signaling his lack of interest in returning to full JCPOA compliance—at least not before President Rouhani leaves office in August.
Feb 8, 2021
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
How the United States Should View Iraq’s Shrine Militias
Despite welcoming the idea of separating the nationalist “shrine units” from the Iran-leaning Popular Mobilization Forces, Washington should lighten its touch on the issue.
Feb 5, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking
The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."
Feb 4, 2021
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Iranian military leaders inspect drones.
Brief Analysis
Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics
Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.
Jan 29, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
CENTCOM seal
Brief Analysis
Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light
The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.
Jan 28, 2021
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Mark Montgomery

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