Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

An in-depth look at how the Islamic Republic manages escalation in the gray zone between war and peace, leverages asymmetries to achieve disproportionate effects, and employs its hybrid force structure for maximum effect.

Jan 7, 2020

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?

Given the IRGC’s recent restructuring, the Qods Force will likely see more continuity than change under Qaani, though his bureaucratic background is a far cry from Soleimani’s brand of charismatic, risky leadership.

Jan 7, 2020

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Ali Alfoneh

Articles & Testimony

Fears of 'What's Next?' Will Influence Iran's—and the World's—Reactions

If the United States signals its readiness to do more militarily while also considering compromise, it could spur other governments to apply more effective collective pressure on Tehran.

Jan 6, 2020

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Dennis Ross

Brief Analysis

Mass funerals aside, his image as the quintessential Iranian nationalist made most Middle Easterners wary or actively hostile toward him, so the United States is unlikely to face popular reprisals following his death.

Jan 6, 2020

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

How Soleimani’s Killing Could Make a Stronger Iraq

As Iraq signals its willingness to evict U.S. forces following the airstrike, the time has come for discipline and a focus on shared interests.

Jan 5, 2020

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Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

Iran May Want Revenge for Soleimani, But It May Need Restraint Instead

The incident might convince Khamenei and his advisors that their meddling in the Middle East is jeopardizing the regime’s domestic stability.

Jan 4, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Does Soleimani’s Death Matter? Findings from a 2019 Workshop

Last year’s Washington Institute forum on post-Soleimani succession suggested that the IRGC would lose a unique coordinating capability and its most important totem once he left the scene.

Jan 3, 2020

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Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

Iran Retains Its Ability to Launch Terror Attacks Despite Assassination

Soleimani had multiple deputies with years of experience, and the Iranian security establishment has a tradition of rewarding brazen initiative.

Jan 3, 2020

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Matthew Levitt

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Supreme Leader Responds to the Soleimani Assassination

Khamenei and other regime officials have been quick to swear revenge, but for now they may focus more on stoking patriotic and militaristic sentiment at home.

Jan 3, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

How the Soleimani Assassination Could Pave the Way for a New Deal with Iran

What if U.S. officials took advantage of the moment and asked a trusted third party like Oman or Switzerland to test whether Tehran is ready for a quiet diplomatic initiative?

Jan 3, 2020

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Robert Satloff

Brief Analysis

Escalation in Iraq: How to Limit the Damage and Reestablish Sovereignty

The Iraqi government’s vociferous condemnations of U.S. defensive strikes may just be rhetorical, but they highlight the stakes involved for a country veering ever closer to perpetual Iranian dominance.

Dec 31, 2019

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Bilal Wahab

Articles & Testimony

The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran Can’t

Congress should offer conditional aid that forces Beirut and Baghdad to respond to their citizens’ grievances, many of which stem from Iranian-sponsored sectarianism, corruption, and violence.

Dec 24, 2019

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Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul

Brief Analysis

Iran’s New Budget Is Tight, But Not Tight Enough

Rouhani has taken a remarkably austere fiscal approach ahead of the looming parliamentary election, but the country’s economic situation is still not sustainable over the long run.

Dec 13, 2019

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

GCC Security Issues, as Their Publics See Them: A Rare Look at Real Data

Polling results from five Gulf countries show where citizens and their leaders converge and diverge on Iran, U.S. relations, and other crucial foreign policy matters.

Dec 12, 2019

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David Pollock

Brief Analysis

Deterring Iran’s Next Attack

Since a maximum pressure policy requires maximum deterrence, the president should avoid tweets and actions that undercut U.S. credibility regarding the use of force, while authorizing the requisite rules of engagement.

Dec 11, 2019

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

Europe Pushing Back on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program

Britain, France, and Germany are taking a more proactive role by publicly emphasizing known concerns about the regime’s R&D efforts, but practical mechanisms for ensuring transparency are still needed.

Dec 9, 2019

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

What Will It Take to Repair Middle Eastern Economies?

Directly investing in nongovernmental enterprise and giving international approval to private competition can change the dynamic in individual countries, promote liberal economies, and give citizens greater agency.

Dec 8, 2019

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Bilal Wahab

Brief Analysis

Punishing Iran’s Triggermen in Iraq: Opening Moves in a Long Campaign

Some of the worst perpetrators of the murderous crackdown against Iraqi protestors have finally been sanctioned, but follow-on actions need to be taken more quickly in coordination with Britain and other allies.

Dec 6, 2019

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Iran Is Losing Iraq’s Tribes

Angry over Iranian militia abuses and Baghdad’s sundry failures, a number of powerful tribes are setting aside their traditional sectarian loyalties and pushing to safeguard their basic needs, sometimes violently.

Dec 4, 2019

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Phillip Smyth

Brief Analysis

The IRGC States Its Case for Escalation Against the United States, Britain, and Saudi Arabia

As its concerns about domestic dissent and Western naval activity grow, Tehran may once again try to divert attention from the unrest at home by launching attacks abroad.

Nov 26, 2019

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Farzin Nadimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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