Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed

As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.

Mar 17, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government

Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.

Mar 13, 2020

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Bilal Wahab

Articles & Testimony

How the U.S. Can Stop the Surge of Deadly Rocket Attacks in Iraq

Congress and the Trump administration should privately agree to some ground rules for timing deterrent strikes on truly high-value targets, while quietly deploying more force-protection assets like Patriot missiles.

Mar 13, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 2): Regime Culpability and Resiliency

Even as their lack of transparency worsens the public health crisis, the Supreme Leader and other officials have systematically gutted any civil society elements capable of organizing substantial opposition to such policies.

Mar 12, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

How Is the U.S. Targeted Killing of Qassem Soleimani Likely to Affect Hezbollah’s International Activities and Operations?

Revelations from a recent terrorism trial suggest that the group will be patient in avenging his death, but could eventually use the preoperational surveillance it regularly collects to carry out an attack.

Mar 11, 2020

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Matthew Levitt

Articles & Testimony

The Crisis in Idlib

Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.

Mar 11, 2020

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Dana Stroul

Brief Analysis

The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 1): Clerical Factors

The clergy’s ambitions for global Shia revolution made the city of Qom uniquely vulnerable to the disease, and their resistance to modern medical science weakened the state’s ability to combat its spread.

Mar 9, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Escalating Houthi Offensives in Yemen: U.S. Options

To keep recent rebel victories from cascading into a wider military collapse, Washington must urge the Gulf coalition to firm up the government’s forces and move more quickly on peace talks.

Mar 6, 2020

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Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’

Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.

Mar 5, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.

Mar 4, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Video

Brief Analysis

The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad

Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.

Mar 3, 2020

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Ariane Tabatabai
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis

Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.

Mar 2, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Articles & Testimony

‘Fighters Without Borders’: Forecasting New Trends in Iran Threat Network Foreign Operations Tradecraft

To hide its fingerprints on future attacks against U.S. interests, the regime is focusing on its regional 'Shia Liberation Army' and potentially seeking to radicalize lone actors.

Feb 27, 2020

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Matthew Levitt

Articles & Testimony

The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics

If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.

Feb 26, 2020

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Michael Knights

In-Depth Reports

Reading Trump in Tehran

A week after Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played coy, remarking, “I have no judgment on the American election...[Both parties have been] naughty toward us.” Of course, his true reaction was far more complex. On one hand, he saw in the president-elect—who

Feb 23, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Predetermined Parliamentary Election

The vote will further consolidate Khamenei’s authoritarian rule, while the Majlis seems set to continue its decline in importance.

Feb 19, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment

A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election.

Feb 19, 2020

Brief Analysis

FATF’s Approach to Iran Should Mix Engagement with Pressure

Although it is time for the international standard-setter to act, returning Iran to the blacklist need not be seen as the end of FATF engagement with the country.

Feb 18, 2020

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Katherine Bauer

U.S. soldiers at an Iraqi base after a rocket attack by Iran-backed militias

Video

Brief Analysis

U.S. Strategy Toward Iran: Restoring Deterrence, Enabling Diplomacy

Three experts discuss how Washington can manage escalation and catalyze diplomacy while still using its military instruments to apply pressure.

Feb 14, 2020

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Michael Eisenstadt
Kori Schake
David Deptula

Brief Analysis

Establishing a Response Ratio for Iranian and Proxy Attacks

Enhancing deterrence and protecting Americans in Iraq and Syria requires a more formalized system for rationing out retaliatory strikes at the proper intensity, time, and place.

Feb 13, 2020

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Michael Knights

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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